1. FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page

1. 1. FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page • Title: Regional Assimilation of GOES Total Column Ozone • Project Type: Product Utilization Proposal • Status: New Start • Duration: 3 years • Leads: • R. Bradley Pierce1, NOAA/NESDIS • Other Participants: • Daewon Byun (University of Houston) • Chris Schmidt1 (CIMSS) • Todd Schaack (SSEC) • Jim Jung1 (CIMSS) • Rohit Mathur1 (NOAA/ARL) 1NO COST

2. 2. Project Summary • This project will use US EPA’s Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ)1 implemented at the University of Houston (UH-CMAQ) coupled to the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) global chemical analyses2 to evaluate the impacts of GOES sounder Tropospheric Column Ozone (TCO) on AQ forecasts conducted during the 2006 NOAA TEXAQS field mission. • Results from these studies will provide guidance and develop capabilities for operational use of GOES TCO within the NOAA Operational AQ forecasting system (CMAQ/WRF-NAM). • This study will also demonstrate Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) atmospheric composition constellation concepts contributing to the space component of the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Air Quality Assessment and Forecasting Near Term Opportunity (NTO) 1Byun, D.W. and J.K.S. Ching, (eds)., Science Algorithms of the EPA Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System, EPA Report, EPA/600/R-99/030, Off. of Res. Dev.,NERL, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1999. 2Pierce, R. B., et al. (2007), Chemical data assimilation estimates of continental U.S. ozone and nitrogen budgets during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment–North America, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12S21doi:10.1029/2006JD007722.

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • This task supports NOAA Mission Goal(s) to “Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information” through development of capabilities for assimilating ozone observations from NOAA operational geostationary and NASA polar-orbiting research satellites into AQ forecast models and evaluating the impacts of these observations on air quality prediction capabilities. • Justification: Development and testing of methodologies for incorporating satellite based ozone observations into National AQ forecasts supports the National Weather Service’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability (AQFC) mandated by Congress (H.R. Energy Policy Act of 2002 Senate Amendment).

4. 4. Methodology • Linking global RAQMS ozone analyses1, with continental US UH-CMAQ tropospheric ozone predictions provides a first guess for GOES TCO assimilation studies. UH-CMAQ AQ predictions, initialized with ozone analyses with and without GOES TCO, will be used for AQ forecast impact studies. Assimilation of GOES retrievals will be the primary focus. Development of ozone radiance assimilation capabilities will be initiated. • A baseline analysis using GOES TCOretrievals will be conducted using existing Optimal Interpolation (IO) assimilation capabilities implemented into UH-CMAQ. • Coupling between the UH-CMAQ model and the regional Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system will be developed. Assimilation of GOES TCO retrievals within the regional Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system will be tested. • Development of ozone radiance assimilation capabilities will focus on coupling UH-CMAQ to the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and identification of modifications to the existing GSI ozone assimilation required for direct assimilation of GOES 9.7micron radiances. • Extensive surface (EPA AIRNow), airborne (NOAA P3) and ozonesonde (IONS06, Anne Thompson, PSU) data collected during the NOAA 2006 TEXAQS field mission provide insitu measurements for forecast verification. 1Currently available global chemical analyses constrained with OMI TCO and TES ozone profile retrievals from the NASA Aura satellite. FY05- FY07 activity funded by NASA Atmospheric Composition Program (R. Pierce, PI)

5. 5. Summary of Previous Results GOES Total Column Ozone RAQMS/CMAQ First Guess • The development of RAQMS and CMAQ linkages1 allowed testing of the impacts of assimilation of legacy GOES TCO retrieval on CMAQ using the Statistical Digital Filter (SDF) Optimal Interpolation (OI) approaches (Figure 1). • Results of this preliminary GOES TCO assimilation study showed reduced biases relative to EPA AIRNow surface measurements compared to the CMAQ predictions using RAQMS ozone analysis only. • Recent improvements in the GOES sounder TCO retrieval include reduced RMS errors and bias corrections and is available in real-time2 SDF Analysis Increment RAQMS/CMAQ Analysis 1C. K. Song et al., “Developing a downscaling method from global to regional ozone modeling: Application for linking RAQMS and CMAQ”,Proc. of SPIE Vol. 5890 (2005) doi: 10.1117/12.640026 2Li, J., et al., (2007), High temporal resolution GOES sounder single field of view ozone improvements, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01804, doi:10.1029/2006GL028172. Figure 1: Merged RAQMS/CMAQ First Guess TCO (upper left), Legacy GOES TCO (upper right), SDF analysis increment (lower left), and CMAQ/GOES TCO analysis (lower right) at 18Z on July 06, 1999.

6. 6. Expected Outcomes • Improved constraints on upper tropospheric regional ozone predictions. • Guidance for incorporation of GOES sounder data into National AQ prediction. • Testing and Evaluation of GSI regional ozone assimilation capabilities. • Testing and Evaluation of CRTM GOES 9.7 micron forward and inverse modeling capabilities. • Identification of GSI modifications needed for direct 9.7 micron radiance assimilation. • Demonstration of CEOS Atmospheric Composition Constellation concepts. • Demonstration of Integrated Observed-Modeled Air Quality Fields for GEOSS Air Quality Assessment and Forecasting Near Term Opportunity

7. 7. Major Milestones • FY08 • Conduct August-September 2006 baseline (no GOES TCO ) RAQMS/CMAQ simulation • Conduct August-September 2006 GOES TCO RAQMS/CMAQ SDF assimilation • Evaluate impact of assimilation of GOES TCO retrieval through comparison with IONS ozonesonde, AIRNow surface network and NOAA P3 airborne observations. • Develop coupling between the CMAQ model and the regional GSI system • FY09 • Conduct August-September 2006 RAQMS/CMAQ GSI GOES TCO retrieval assimilation • Evaluate impact of GSI GOES TCO assimilation through comparison with baseline, SDF assimilation, IONS ozonesonde, AIRNow surface network and NOAA P3 airborne observations. • Develop CMAQ/CRTM linkage for GOES radiance forward/inverse modeling • FY10 • Conduct August-September 2006 data denial (with and without GOES TCO) AQ forecast studies. • Evaluate impact of GSI GOES TCO retrieval assimilation on regional AQ forecasts through comparison with IONS ozonesonde, AIRNow surface network and NOAA P3 airborne observations. • Identify modifications to the existing GSI ozone assimilation required for direct assimilation of GOES 9.7micron radiances. • Interface with NCEP Operational CMAQ/WRF-NAM development team for transition to Operations.

8. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • GEOS-RRR Task: Use ABI like retrievals from SEVIRI radiances and RAQMS global/regional air quality modeling system to test the impact of assimilating geostationary total column ozone on regional air quality. • Leverage development of RAQMS/GSI and RAQMS/CRTM linkages under GOES-RRR task for CMAQ/CRTM, CMAQ/GSI linkage. • Parallel August-September RAQMS regional SEVIRI (Europe) and CMAQ GOES (US) studies utilize RAQMS global chemical analysis

9. 9. Expected Purchase Items • FY08 • (5K) NOAA/NESDIS travel (1 Madison-DC, 1 Madison-Houston trip) • (70K): STAR Software Contractor (University of Houston) for 1 person at 50% time from OCT 08 to SEP 09 • FY09 • (5K) NOAA/NESDIS travel (1 Madison-DC, 1 Madison-Houston trip) • (40K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 1 person at 25% time from OCT 09 to SEP 10 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 40K • (73K): STAR Software Contractor (University of Houston) for 1 person at 50% time from OCT 09 to SEP 10 • FY10 • (5K) NOAA/NESDIS travel (1 Madison-DC, 1 Madison-Houston trip) • (42K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 1 person at 25% time from OCT 10 to SEP 11 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 42K • (77K): STAR Software Contractor (University of Houston) for 1 person at 50% time from OCT 10 to SEP 11