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Space weather forecasting in ESA SSA Programme

Space weather forecasting in ESA SSA Programme. Juha-Pekka Luntama Space Weather Manager SSA Programme Office. SSA-SWE Requirements Definition. SSA Programme has three levels of requirements: Mission Requirements Document (MRD) Customer Requirements Document (CRD)

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Space weather forecasting in ESA SSA Programme

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  1. Space weather forecasting in ESA SSA Programme Juha-Pekka Luntama Space Weather Manager SSA Programme Office

  2. SSA-SWE Requirements Definition • SSA Programme has three levels of requirements: • Mission Requirements Document (MRD) • Customer Requirements Document (CRD) • System Requirements Document (SRD) + Product Specification Document (PSD) • MRD specifies high level objectives of the Programme • CRD expresses the services and products needed by the end users • SRD defines the system requirements for implementation through industrial contracts: • SSA SWE Segment architecture • Utilisation of the existing assets • Development needs for new assets and capabilities • PSD defines the observation data and products

  3. SWE Forecast requirements from users • Examples of customer requirements: • long-term solar cycle prediction • forecasts over a user defined period with estimates of probability of occurrence of space weather events and of “All quiet conditions” • forecasts of radiation effects for the user spacecraft • forecast and near real-time assessment of the effects of ionospheric disturbances on spacecraft operations • forecast of the atmospheric data required for drag calculation • forecast of atmospheric properties for drag calculation on Mars, Venus and other relevant planets. • forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity indices • forecast of meteoroid and space debris fluxes, including streams and debris clouds • All forecasts shall be provided with quantified uncertainties

  4. SSA Space Weather SegmentSSA/SWE System in 2013 SSA-SWE Users SSA-SWE ServicePortal: swe.ssa.esa.int SWE Service Coordination Centre, Space Pole, Belgium SWE Data Centre Redu, Belgium SWE Expert Service Centres SolarWeather ROB, Belgium (coord.) Uni. Graz, Austria HeliosphericWeather TBD IonosphericWeather DLR, Germany (coord.) NMA, Norway NOA, Greece CLS, France SpaceRadiation BIRA, Belgium (coord.) AIT, Austria UOA, Greece Geomagnetic Conditions TGO, Norway (coord.) FMI, Finland

  5. SSA SWE Coordination Centre • SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre (SSCC) was established by the SSA Programme • Inauguration ceremony was in April 2013 • SSCC will synthesise the available SWE information and make it available to the end users • SSA SWE applications and SSCC user support currently in verification and validation phase => Support currently provided during normal working hours+ dedicated campaigns • SWE services available from: http://swe.ssa.esa.int SSA SWE Coordination Centre Space Pole Avenue Circulaire, 3 - Ringlaan 1180 Uccle - Ukkel (Brussels) BELGIUM Tel: +32-2-7903-913 Email: helpdesk.swe@ssa.esa.int

  6. Forecasting exampleLaunch operation - Forecast of radiation storms • System requirement: This service shall provide an estimate of the risk of increased level of radiation along trajectory by forecasting: • An estimate of Solar Particle Event onset with ions (including protons and heavy ions) with energy above pre-defined threshold in the range 10MeV to 300MeV • Solar activity • All quiet conditions • SSA SWE capability tested for the first time during the launch of the GAIA mission • Launch campaign on 16 – 20 December • L2 orbit insertion time window 3 – 14 January • Reference threshold defined by the mission: 10 pfu of 50 MeV protons • Proton data: GOES13 with PROBA2/LYRA as backup • Forecast: SSCC scientist on duty with support by SIDC forecasters

  7. Forecasting exampleSSA SWE support during GAIA launch • Tailored SWE bulletin for GAIA launch campaign

  8. Forecasting exampleSSA SWE support during GAIA launch • GAIA launch day 19 December 2013 • Bulletins at 03:30 CET and 09:00 CET • === Past 24 hours === • Solar flare activity: C1.8 flare on December 18, 2013 at 15:10 UTC • 50-MEV proton flux: less than 0.15 pfu • === Next 48 hours === • All quiet: end of all quiet since September 25 • Solar flares: eruptive • Solar protons: unlikely • === Comment === • The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was a C1.8 event taking place in NOAA AR 1730, a new region which is currently located to the east (left on the image) of the central meridian. No Earth-directed CME was observed. The probability for C-flares remains high, around 80%, with a small chance of M-flares, around 30%, from NOAA ARs 1917, 1928. C flares are possible from NOAA AR 1930. The chances for an X-flare are very low. The proton flux for >10MeV and >50MeV protons, measured by GOES, remains well below threshold levels. • === Past 24 hours === Solar flare activity: C1.8 flare on December 19, 2013 at 7:20 UTC 50-MEV proton flux: less than 0.15 pfu=== Next 48 hours === All quiet: end of all quiet since September 25 Solar flares: eruptiveSolar protons: unlikely=== Comment === The strongest flare since the last bulletin was a C1.8 event taking place in NOAA AR 1930, located at 30 degrees east (left on the image) of the central meridian. No Earth-directed CME was observed. The probability for C-flares remains high, around 80%, with a small chance of M-flares, around 30%, from NOAA ARs 1917, 1928 and 1930. C flares are possible from NOAA AR 1931. The chances for an X-flare are very low. The proton flux for >10MeV and >50MeV protons, measured by GOES, remains well below threshold levels.

  9. Forecasting examplesSSA SWE support during GAIA orbit insertion • == Special Space Weather bulletin for GAIA launch operation == Alert for proton event prepared by Andy Devos (SIDC forecaster) on January 7, 2014 at 20:45 UTC=== Past 24 hours === Solar flare activity: X1.3 flare on January 7, 2014 at 18:30 UTC  > 50-MEV proton flux: near 4 pfu and rising === Current conditions === Solar flares: major flaresSolar protons: proton event expected/possible (10 pfu at > 50 MeV) === Comment === An X1.3 flare erupted from the western part of NOAA AR 1944, peaking at 18:30 UTC. There are strong indications a new proton event is starting due to this flaring activity. At the moment of writing this alert message, the proton flux for the > 10 MeV, > 50 MeV and > 100 MeV energy levels is rising strongly. The > 10 MeV proton flux has hardly been below the event threshold during the past 1.5 days, while the flux for higher energy levels > 50 and > 100 MeV are currently approaching the event threshold. It is likely that the event threshold will be reached within the next few hours. • L2 orbit insertion manoeuvre 07 January 2014 • === Past 24 hours === Solar flare activity: M7.2 flare on January 7, 2014 at 10:13 UTC 50-MEV proton flux: declining, currently again below 1 pfu=== Next 48 hours === All quiet: end of all quiet since September 25 Solar flares: active Solar protons: another proton event is possible === Comment === The enhanced proton flux is further declining after the proton event of January 6. The proton flux is still near the event threshold for the > 10 MeV protons. For the > 50 and > 100 MeV protons, the flux is further declining and below the event threshold. NOAA AR 1944 was responsible for the largest flare since the last bulletin, an M7.2 flare… There is a substantial chance, around 60%, for M-flares. Chances for an X-flare are estimated at 20%. Due to the flaring potential and position of the active regions and the enhanced proton fluxes, a new proton event is possible during the next 48 hours.

  10. Next steps • A number of European forecasting capabilities already demonstrated within the SSA SWE system including for example • F10.7 index forecast (SIDC – ROB) • SWACI – TEC Map (Europe), 1hr forecast (DLR) • SWACI – TEC Map (Global), 1hr forecast (DLR) • Maps of forecast foF2 over Europe for the next 24 hours (NOA) • Forecast foF2 values for the next 24 hours over each DIAS station (NOA) • More capabilities are under implementation • Auroral alert and forecast service (FMI) • Geomagnetic conditions service for resource exploitation (TGO, NMA) • Space Weather Analysis and Visualisation Toolkit (Rhea Systems) • New developments will be started shortly • ESC definition and establishment of the Heliospheric Weather ESC • Utilisation of prototyping outside SSA programme (e.g. FP7) • Forecasting in the baseline service only for geomagnetic surverying • Usefullness of geomagnetic disturbance forecasts for directional drilling will be assessed

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