1 / 12

Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One

Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One. Paul Constantine March 29, 2011. What is UQ???. Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert judgment to make inferences about a physical system . (David Higdon – Los Alamos National Labs).

ciro
Download Presentation

Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One Paul Constantine March 29, 2011

  2. What is UQ??? Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert judgment to make inferences about a physical system. (David Higdon – Los Alamos National Labs) Uncertainty quantification attempts to express the known unknowns. (Bill Oberkampf – Sandia National Labs) UQ is about providing bounds on our knowledge of system behavior and on confidence in our predictions. (Omar Knio – Johns Hopkins University) Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  3. What is UQ??? Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert judgment to make inferences about a physical system. (David Higdon – Los Alamos National Labs) Uncertainty quantification attempts to express the known unknowns. (Bill Oberkampf – Sandia National Labs) UQ is about providing bounds on our knowledge of system behavior and on confidence in our predictions. (Omar Knio – Johns Hopkins University) Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  4. What is UQ??? Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert judgment to make inferences about a physical system. (David Higdon – Los Alamos National Labs) Uncertainty quantification attempts to express the known unknowns. (Bill Oberkampf – Sandia National Labs) UQ is about providing bounds on our knowledge of system behavior and on confidence in our predictions. (Omar Knio – Johns Hopkins University) Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  5. What is UQ??? UQ is the difference between success and failure. (GianlucaIaccarino – Stanford University) UQ is quantification of the effect of uncertainty. It sounds boring indeed but I don't see anything else to it. (DongbinXiu – Purdue University) Man – that’s a hard question!! (Tim Trucano – Sandia National Labs) Counting sh*t you can’t see. (Carter Rose – Dallas, Texas) Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  6. What is UQ??? UQ is the difference between success and failure. (GianlucaIaccarino – Stanford University) UQ is quantification of the effect of uncertainty. It sounds boring indeed but I don't see anything else to it. (DongbinXiu – Purdue University) Man – that’s a hard question!! (Tim Trucano – Sandia National Labs) Counting sh*t you can’t see. (Carter Rose – Dallas, Texas) Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  7. What is UQ??? UQ is the difference between success and failure. (GianlucaIaccarino – Stanford University) UQ is quantification of the effect of uncertainty. It sounds boring indeed but I don't see anything else to it. (DongbinXiu – Purdue University) Man – that’s a hard question!! (Tim Trucano – Sandia National Labs) Counting sh*t you can’t see. (Carter Rose – Dallas, Texas) Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  8. What is UQ??? UQ is the difference between success and failure. (GianlucaIaccarino – Stanford University) UQ is quantification of the effect of uncertainty. It sounds boring indeed but I don't see anything else to it. (DongbinXiu – Purdue University) Man – that’s a hard question!! (Tim Trucano – Sandia National Labs) Counting sh*t you can’t see. (Carter Rose – Dallas, Texas) Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  9. What is UQ??? I guess “uncertainty" means a lack of certainty or knowledge; i.e.ignorance. This is one definition that suggests that subjective  probability may be a reasonable way to think of uncertainty wherein randomness refers to alack of knowledge. Quantification, of course, means to quantify, to observe and assign a measure. I like the Wikipedia definition: an act of measuring that maps human observationsand experiences into a set of numbers. I would weaken that a little: human observations include those made by humansusing instruments. Thus, Uncertainty Quantifivation is precisely the quantification ofone's lack of knowledge concerning (in science and engineering) aphysical reality. (J. Tinsley Oden – University of Texas) Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  10. A Simple Case Study Suppose I drop a tennis ball from the top of Hoover Tower. How long will it take to hit the ground? Inspired by: Christie, Glimm, Grove, Higdon, Sharp, Wood-Shultz, “Error Analysis and Simulations of Complex Phenomena” Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  11. Collecting Data with Mike Lesnick Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

  12. Title Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine

More Related