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Analytical Fire Modeling: Fire in it’s Environment

Analytical Fire Modeling: Fire in it’s Environment. Christopher G. Morrison Nicholas J. Kutac Rio Rancho High School Team # 077. Project Overview. Significance Problem Definition Previous Year’s Progress New Research Current Program Forest Fire Movement Heat and Fire Flow

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Analytical Fire Modeling: Fire in it’s Environment

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  1. Analytical Fire Modeling: Fire in it’s Environment Christopher G. Morrison Nicholas J. Kutac Rio Rancho High School Team # 077

  2. Project Overview • Significance • Problem Definition • Previous Year’s Progress • New Research • Current Program • Forest Fire Movement • Heat and Fire Flow • Progress To Date

  3. Significance • Cerro Grande - 2000 • Burned 47,650 acres of federal land • Cost 10 million dollars to contain • Yellowstone - 1988 • Burned 793,000 acres (36% of park) • Cost 120 million dollars to contain • Michigan - 1871

  4. Problem Definition • How to show more realistic fire-spread • Find more dynamic math models • Look at fire spread in 3-dimensions

  5. Last Year’s Progress • Heat Model • Averaging equation • Environment modeling FOR MORE INFO... Link to last year’s final report by Chris Morrison http://www.challenge.nm.org/archive/04-05/finalreports/53.pdf

  6. Fire Methodology • Fire Facts • Heat Facts • Fuel Facts • Flash points • Crown and Floor Fires • Environmental Factors • Wind, Humidity, Ambient Temperature, Forest Fuels, Elevation

  7. New Research - Contacts • Andrea Rodriguez, USFS Cartographer • Geospatial contact, Geospatial Service & Technology Center • Real data for terrain and ground cover • Meta-data and raster difficult to interpret • Unable to incorporate this year

  8. New Research - Farsite Model • Developed by US Forest Service • Incorporates Huygen’s principles • Fire expansion • Similar • Wind and Fuel effect • Different

  9. Huygen’s Principle Processed terrain Several variables New Research - Fire Spread

  10. Current Program - Algorithm • Two Parts • Heat Flow • Fire Flow • Program Base • Patch level of forest exactness • Mini-patch level of fire exactness • See program (alt-tab)

  11. Program - Heat Flow • Everyday Occurrences • Newton’s Law of Cooling • Fourier’s Law of Conduction

  12. Program - Fire Expansion • Locates perimeter • Expands out • Max Spread Rate • Spread Rate • Plots X new fires

  13. Program - Progress to Date • Inputs • Fuel type based on color • Possibly elevation • Environmental Factors • Outputs • Size, Damage, Heat • Validation • Comparisons • Successes • New inventive fire program design

  14. Program - Assumptions • Assumptions • Fire Flow is elliptical • Heat Flow and Fire Flow are separate, related elements • Newton’s Law and Fourier’s law control heat Flow

  15. Work to Be Done • Before Final Evaluation • Program • Connect Heat and Fire Flow • Add environmental Factors • Add Spark Fires • Add Crown Fires • Web site • Final Report • Get started

  16. Research Bibliography • Bonsor, K. (2004) How Wild Fires Work Retrieved October 3rd 2005 from http://science.howstuffworks.com/wildfire.htm • Diaz, J.C. (2002). Fourier’s law retrieved on December 6th 2005 from http://www.mcs.utulsa.edu/~class_diaz/cs4533/flowheat/node4.html#SECTION00121000000000000000 • EFunda.com (2005). Heat Transfer. EFounda.com. Retrieved December 12th 2005 from http://www.efunda.com/formulae/heat_transfer/home/overview.cfm • Finey, M. (2002) Austrailian Mathematical Society Fire growth using minimum travel time methods • Harris, T. (2005). How Wild Fire Works Retrieved December 13th 2005 from http://science.howstuffworks.com/fire.htm

  17. Bibliography - Continued • Masse, B. & Nisengard, J. (2003). Cerro Grange Fire Assessment Project Cultureal Resources Report No. 211. • O’Driscoll, P. (2005). Studies at odds over logging after wildfires. USA Today Nov. 2nd • Rona, A. (2003). Conduction. Retrieved December 6th, 2005 http://www.le.ac.uk/engineering/ar45/eg1100/eg1100w/node12.html • Taftan Data (1998). Fourier's Law of Conduction. Retrieved December 6th, 2005 http://www.taftan.com/thermodynamics/FOURIER.HTM • www.nifc.gov (last updated, 2002). Historical Wildfire Statistics. Retrieved December 6th 2005 http://www.nifc.gov/stats/historicalstats.html • Fire Picture Thanks to www.StrangeCosmos.com

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