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Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society in Germany

This presentation discusses scenarios for achieving a greenhouse gas neutral society in Germany, including the development of renewable energy sources and the potential for a 100% renewable electricity system. It explores three archetypal scenarios proposed by the German central environmental agency and provides insights into the feasibility and implications of each scenario. The presentation concludes that a 100% renewable electricity generation is technically feasible by 2050 and can ensure supply security throughout the year.

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Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society in Germany

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  1. Scenarios for a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society in Germany Mark Nowakowski Section for Energy Strategies and Scenarios PROMITHEAS 7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, NKUA, Athens, October 8th 2014

  2. Germany‘scentralenvironmentagencysince 1974 (1500 emp.) • Scientific supporttotheFederal Government • Execution of environmental laws (e.g. emission trading scheme, certification of chemicals, pharmaceuticals, pesticides) • Information of the public on environment protection issues

  3. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Energy and climate targets of Germany – 80-95 % 80%

  4. Development ofGermany‘selectricityproductionfrom RES since1990 Source: BMU

  5. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society 1400 1200 1000 Waste LULUCF 2Äq 800 Agriculture 600 Industrial processes, solvents and other product applications Transport 400 Energy (excluding transport) Emissionen in Mio.t CO 200 0 1990 2010 UBA THGND 2050 - 200 Germany: A Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society? 106 t CO2eq – 95%

  6. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society UBA: Three “archetypal” scenarios “Regions Network” (2010) “Local Energy Autarky” (2013) “International Large Scale” (2014)

  7. UBA sceanriosare part of asolution space.

  8. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Our central question: Can a 100% RE System cover Germany‘scompleteelectricitydemand ANDtheannualpeakload? Security of supply on today‘s level?

  9. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society “Regions Network” scenario (UBA, 2010) (Download from www.uba.de)

  10. All regions in Germany make extensive use of their RE potentials Well-developed national electricity transmission grid Efficient energy use, storage and demand side management Today‘s lifestyle, consumer and behaviour patterns, no technology leaps Germany remains a highly developed industrialized country High level supply security Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Properties “Regions Network”

  11. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society RES potentialsandutilizationlevel Today: 32 GWel Today: 35 GWel

  12. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society “Regions Network” 2050

  13. Model structure “Regions Network”

  14. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society RE feed-in andload – summermonth

  15. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society RE feed-in andload – winter month

  16. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society RE feed-in andload – winter month

  17. 100% RE electricity generation is technically and ecologically feasible by 2050 without questioning Germany‘s existance as a highly developed industrialized country. PV, wind, grid, storage are essential parts of our 100% EE power system. Achievable with today’s best available technologies, no technology leaps RE potentials can even supply e-mob as well as heating and hot water via heat pumps. Supply security is ensured all year round. Fluctuations of RE and load can be balanced out at any time Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Results“Regions Network”

  18. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society “LocalEnergyAutarky” scenario (UBA, 2013) (Download from www.uba.de)

  19. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Properties “Local Energy Autarky” • Basic presumptionsas in “Regions Network” • Decentralized, localsupply WITHOUT connections with other regions or with outside suppliers(i.e. “energy islands”) • Simulation of different settlementstructures: • rural community and town district • Eachwithandwithouttrade/industry • Atexemplarylocations in northern and in southern Germany • Higher energyefficiencythan in “Regions Network” • Higher utilisationofRES potentialsthan in “Regions Network”, esp. PV

  20. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Results“Local Energy Autarky” • Local energy autarky or “island solutions” is no feasible option for all Germany. • Without a transmission grid areas with low RES potentials lose out. • No sufficient RE based power supply for cities • Also, rural communities with trade/industry fail to be self-sufficient. • A transmission grid is important and beneficial in a 100% RE system. • BUT: Local energy autarky may be a promising option for low population areas with little or no transmission grids available and high RES potentials.

  21. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society “International Large Scale” scenario Source: J. Lillestam, PIK

  22. “International Large Scale” • Metaanalysisofexistingstudieswith a • High RE electricityimportshareinto Germany/Europe • Useofthose RE potentials in Germany, Europe anditsvicinitywhichcan readily be tapped by large-scale technology projects and storage power plants („low-hangingfruit“) • A well-developed intercontinental transmission grid connects generation centers with centers of electricity consumption. • Pan-European electricitynetworkhelpstobalance out fluctuating RE generationandreducesstoragedemand. • But:higher technical, financial and political-administrative complexity of developing cross-border infrastructure and power plants abroad

  23. Conclusionsfrom UBA scenarios • 100% RES power supply is technically and ecologically feasible by 2050. • Different approaches possible • Corresponding support schemes are necessary • Well-developed electricity network appears to be beneficial. • Expansion of reserve power capacity, application of load management, development of infrastructure for transport and long-term storage of electricity are necessary prerequisites for 100% RES system • Conjoint, well-coordinated action needed in Europe • Foster general public acceptance

  24. Elements of a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society Electricity Agriculture Heating Waste Transport LULUCF Industry

  25. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society 1400 1200 1000 Waste LULUCF 2Äq 800 Agriculture 600 Industrial processes, solvents and other product applications Transport 400 Energy (excluding transport) Emissionen in Mio.t CO 200 0 1990 2010 UBA THGND 2050 - 200 Germany 2050: A Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society 106 t CO2eq – 95%

  26. Power to Gas: Chemical Storage asRenewableMethane Sector coupling through link between power grid and natural gas grid : 4 H2 + CO2 ↔ CH4 + H2O [Specht et al, 2010, Sterner, 2009] Generation → Electrolysis (H2) → Methanation (CH4) → Reconversion η = 1 x 0,7 x 0,8 x 0,59 = 33%

  27. Energy flow in the scenario “UBA THGND 2050”

  28. Thank you for your attention !Ευχαριστώ πολύ για την προσοχή σας . Mark Nowakowski mark.nowakowski@uba.de www.uba.de

  29. Scenarios for a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society in Germany Mark Nowakowski Section for Energy Strategies and Scenarios PROMITHEAS 7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, NKUA, Athens, October 8th 2014

  30. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Electricity Storage in 2050(as in “Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Electricity Supply“) • Can a 100% renewable electricity system satisfy total electricity and load demand at any hour of the year? • Yes! In total: generation of excess supply, but also times of shortages

  31. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society • Results“Regions Network” • Supplysecurityandelectricity all-season! Positive residual load (generation deficit): reconversion, imports, bio-methane Power Negative residual load (excess generation): pump storage, electrolysis

  32. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society Results “Local Energy Autarky” City district in northern Germany: Loadof private houses, 50% e-mobility, Balances after fluctuating feed-in andstorage, Storage activity (meteorologicaldata 2006–2009)

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