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Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S.

David F. Zierden Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University Tallahassee, FL Alabama Water Resources Conference October 13, 2005. Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S. SECC Partners.

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Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S.

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  1. David F. Zierden Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University Tallahassee, FL Alabama Water Resources Conference October 13, 2005 Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S.

  2. SECC Partners Florida State Univeristy – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry University of Florida – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools University of Miami – climate, economics, water resources, assessment University of Georgia – climate, extension, crop modeling University of Auburn – extension, economics, insurance University of Alabama Huntsville – climate, water resources

  3. World Map

  4. Global Sea Surface Temperatures

  5. Global Sea Surface Temperatures

  6. Global Sea Surface Temperatures

  7. Global Sea Surface Temperatures

  8. Monitoring the Pacific Ocean

  9. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ENSO Index SST Anomalies averaged over the red shaded portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean Smoothed with a five- month running average to reduce noise

  10. Tracking ENSO with the JMA Index

  11. How El Niño/La Niña Effect the Atmospheric Circulation

  12. Winter Jet Stream Patterns during El Niño and La Niña

  13. ENSO Effects on Precipitation

  14. ENSO Effects on Temperature

  15. Probabilistic Nature of Forecasts

  16. Predicting El Nino/La Nina • Warm/Cold events are tied to the seasonal cycle • Events and their climate impacts tend to peak in NH winter • Phase can be forecast as early as late summer for the next 6-9 months • Phase is difficult to forecast in Spring for the following seasons

  17. Climate Forecast from NOAA Temperature Precipitation

  18. El Niño/La Niña and Hurricanes El Niño La Niña

  19. Probability of Hurricane Strikes

  20. Impact Freezes of the last century Freeze Date ENSO State *Dec 1894 Neutral Feb 1899 Neutral Dec 1934 Neutral Jan 1940 Neutral *Dec 1962 Neutral Jan 1977 Neutral Jan 1981 Neutral *Dec 1983 Neutral Jan 1985 Neutral *Dec 1989 Neutral Jan 1997 Neutral * High Impact

  21. ENSO and Southeast FreezeProbabilities

  22. Mallory Swamp Fire during the last La Niña

  23. ENSO and Wildfires April • La Niña typically increases acreage burned in Florida from around 60,000 acres to 200,000 or more. (Jones, Shriver, and O’Brien, 1999; Brenner, 1999). • Effective mitigation (supression, contolled burns, herbicides) has bias historical burn records. • Foresters need downscaled predictions in time and space to effectively manage resources. Anomalous Wildfire activity (acres burned) during La Niña episodes Percent Change -100 -50 -25 25 50 100 200 500 1000

  24. Wildfire Threat forecast • The end product is a monthly, county-by-county forecast of the KBDI. • Graphic shows the probability of at least 7 days in the month being above or below critical thresholds. • Thresholds were determined with input from forestry and wildfire experts. • Forecast was based on the Neutral ENSO phase.

  25. Where can I get this Information??? www.agclimate.org

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