1 / 30

Disasters and Conflict

Disasters and Conflict Zoë Chafe Worldwatch Institute USIP Global Peace and Security Seminar July 12, 2006 Outline Disaster trends Natural vs. “unnatural” disasters Case studies of disaster and conflict -Aceh -Sri Lanka -Pakistan -Hurricane Katrina Recommendations and project goals

Albert_Lan
Download Presentation

Disasters and Conflict

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Disasters and Conflict Zoë Chafe Worldwatch Institute USIP Global Peace and Security Seminar July 12, 2006

  2. Outline • Disaster trends • Natural vs. “unnatural” disasters • Case studies of disaster and conflict -Aceh -Sri Lanka -Pakistan -Hurricane Katrina • Recommendations and project goals • Your thoughts and questions

  3. Why Disasters and Conflict? • Immediate needs, survival mode • Direct competition for aid • Potential breakdown in social services

  4. Disasters of 2005 Source: National Environmental Satellite, Mario Tama: Getty Images, AP, Karl Schular: IUCN Pakistan, Reuters, Wade Laube

  5. Disasters of 2005: Year of Records • 650 “loss events” • 100,000 deaths (only 3rd year recorded) • 157 million people affected • Unprecedented economic losses ($210 bil) • Wilma: strongest hurricane in Atlantic • Delta: first tropical cyclone in Canaries Source: MunichRe, CRED

  6. Disasters of 2006 Source: ESRI/USGS, China Daily, AP/Bureau of Meteorology, Save the Children, Matt Rourke/AP, International Security Assistance Force.

  7. This Year: Disasters (so far) in 2006 • Afghanistan: Landslides, affected 300,000 • Australia: Cyclones, $200 million in damage • Bolivia: Floods, $35 million in damage • China: Floods, $957 million in damage, 100 killed • DR Congo: Floods, 75,000 people affected • Indonesia: Yogyakarta earthquake, 5,736 killed • Iran: Earthquake, affected 160,000 people • US: Floods, 200,000 evacuated on East Coast

  8. Number and Cost of Weather-Related Disasters 1980–2005

  9. Deaths from Weather-Related Disasters 1980–2005

  10. Average Number Affected by Weather-Related Disasters 1981–2005

  11. Natural or Un-natural Disasters? • Ecosystem destruction • Climate change • Population growth • Human settlements in risky areas

  12. World Ecological Footprint, 1961–2002

  13. World Population, 1950–2005

  14. Annual Population Growth of Cities and Slums, 1990–2005

  15. Ecological Safety Net • Coral reefs and mangroves dampen waves and surges • Forests prevent localized flooding and landslides • Case for precautionary principle

  16. Frequency of Disasters 1980-2004

  17. Who is at risk? • Countries with low human development: home to 11% of people exposed to risk • But account for 53% of deaths from disasters • Disasters divert funds from social programs • Erase land and property records • Economic marginalization • Women at increased risk

  18. Number Affected by Disasters 1980-2004

  19. Disasters and Conflict • Selected cases of overlap • Disaster type can dictate amount of press • Potential to decrease human rights abuses • Aid can exacerbate conflict • Displacement can fuel future conflict • Military role necessary but complicated • Political leadership crucial

  20. Case Study: Tsunami in Aceh • Aceh site of 30 year conflict • Rich in resources; rampant poverty • Illegal logging lucrative for police, military • Tsunami brought international attention • Common goals of relief, recovery, reconstruction • Peace agreement secured in August 2005

  21. Impacts on Aceh Aceh’s total population: 4.2 million

  22. Case study: Tsunami in Sri Lanka • Civil war from 1983 to cease-fire in 2002 • Tsunami affected all parties • Tamil Tigers accused government of discrimination in aid distribution • Aid slow to reach all communities • Peace talks resumed, but violence persists

  23. Impacts on Sri Lanka Sri Lanka’s total population: 19.6 million

  24. Case study: Pakistan Earthquake • 50 years of tension between India and Pakistan • Earthquake killed more than 80,000 • Landslides contributed to suffering • Border crossings opened for aid distribution • Disputes over logistics marred goodwill

  25. Case study: Hurricane Katrina • More than 1,800 killed • New Orleans heavily impoverished • Intra-societal conflict under media scrutiny • Breakdown in communications • Conflict increasing?

  26. Foreign Aid to US • $1 billion in total foreign aid offered • From 115 countries and organizations • UAE was largest donor at $100 million • Kuwait donated $25 million to Red Cross • UK meals were quarantined • Offers from Iran, Cuba were rejected

  27. Recommendations • Environmental protection for cooperation: • peace parks, regional agreements, monitoring programs • Natural disaster prevention bridges political boundaries • Address war- and disaster-affected populations in comprehensive program • Strengthen civil society, encourage transparency • Creative and imaginative collaboration

  28. Future goals of the project • State of the World 2007 chapter • Engage disaster and conflict agencies • Roundtable discussion, Spring 2007 • Disaster book, expected Summer 2007 • Strengthen and update web portal

  29. Online Portal www.worldwatch.org/features/disasters

More Related