1 / 12

Is the Sky the Limit in Track and Field: Answers in Measurement and Evaluation?

Is the Sky the Limit in Track and Field: Answers in Measurement and Evaluation? Yuanlong Liu Department of Health, Physical Education and Recreation Western Michigan University 2009 Who am I? 2009 ???? B.C Introduction Motto? Faster Higher Stronger

Albert_Lan
Download Presentation

Is the Sky the Limit in Track and Field: Answers in Measurement and Evaluation?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Is the Sky the Limit in Track and Field: Answers in Measurement and Evaluation? Yuanlong Liu Department of Health, Physical Education and Recreation Western Michigan University 2009

  2. Who am I?

  3. 2009 ???? B.C Introduction Motto? Faster Higher Stronger Men now run 40 sec. faster in 1500m run and jump 54 centimeters higher in high jump than one hundred years ago

  4. Introduction • Human being has been running faster and jumping higher through the would • Whether the improvement trend would continue and when is the end? • Can M&E specialists help?

  5. Richest Data • One hundred more years world annual best performances • Best world athletes‘ performances • Male & Female • Races & Regions

  6. 118 116 114 112 110 Time (Sec) 108 800m 106 104 102 100 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Track and Field Performances: Past and Present(continue) • World best performances Because of the asymptotic trend, the general performances trend would not have much space for improvement in the new century

  7. Track and Field Performances:Comparison between East and West

  8. What Can M&E Specialists Do? • Linear regression model • Non-linear regression model • What else?

  9. Results of regression models • Linear model • The nonlinear regression models • the exponential model was the best fitting model in all the selected events. • An asymptotic level has been achieved in all the selected events

  10. Results of regression models(continue) • the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) in time-series analysis were used to fit the data • An ARIMA(0.0.0) model was identified for the last two decades data.

  11. So, No New World Record? • Any ideas? • How about weather forecasting model? • Random sampling model • Assuming true score mean of the top performances now stabilized • Tested on men’s 1500m (foster &Stuart procedure) • Records are set up by outliers • A Monte Carlo program to estimate future records and waiting times • Extreme value theory, utilizing an exponential distribution, was used to model the ordered extreme performances and generate new world records • History has shown us to be very close with the date and the records

  12. Conclusions? • No • The future holds surprising changes, in equipment, in technology, in performance enhancing drugs, in social and economic status, etc. • It is true that predicting future tack and field performances is good fun, and probably about as exact as some the uses of statistics and mathematics is put to elsewhere

More Related