COST OF WAR; PRICE OF PEACE

1. COST OF WAR; PRICE OF PEACE

2. June 10, 1967 • 10,000 casualties in Sinai • The Sinai Peninsula occupied • Oil fields and tourism • The Suez Canal closed • Income from transit fees • Immediate threat to port cities such as Ismailiya • Costs to state and loss of revenue

4. The Idea of an Arab Nation • A POPULAR PERCEPTION OF COMMON CULTURE ROOTED IN LANGUAGE, RELIGION, AND HISTORICAL INSTITUTIONS • A STRATEGIC OPTION FOR STATES ENGAGED IN CONFLICT WITH A STATE WHOSE CULTURE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT • A POLITICAL PROJECT BY A PARTY TO UNIFY THE COMMUNITIES THAT MADE UP THE POPULATIONS OF GREATER SYRIA AND IRAQ.

5. Egyptian Nationalism • Isolated Nile Valley • Pharaonic artifacts • Egypt as cradle of monotheism • The struggle against British colonial rule • Egypt as hegemon

6. Return of Sinai • Negotiation • What would Israel want in return • Force • Required re-equipping Egyptian army • Coalition with other Arab states

7. May 1970 • Anwar Sadat replaces Nasser • Was the USSR the best ally for Egypt?

8. War of Attrition • March 1969-1970 • Artillery duels • Israeli bombing of Egyptian heartland • Rogers talks • Based on UNSC 242 • Envisaged land for peace • US bureaucratic conflict (Kissinger v. Rogers) • Strategic values v. peace

9. Pro-soviet moves -1970 • Egyptian rearmament with Soviet help • Sadat signs Egypt-USSR friendship treaty

10. Anti-Soviet moves • July 1971 – Sadat sends Soviet advisors home • Attempts to gain Kissinger’s attention

11. 1973 • Sadat seems to have discounted war • Secret negotiations with Syria for a unified attack on Israel • Sadat misleads the Syrians into believing he planned to threaten the Israeli homeland

12. 1973 War • Massive Egyptian assault across canal • Syrian attack on Golan nearly reaches into Israel • Both sides required massive re-supply • Egyptian strategy allowed Israel to separate fronts and also penetrate Egyptian lines

13. The US intervenes • Kissinger’s Shuttle diplomacy • Limited steps rather than comprehensive settlement • Partial disengagement in Sinai and return of Egypt to the East Bank of the canal

14. Social unrest in Egypt • Demonstrations in Shubra al-Khaima and Mahallah al-Kubra in 1975-6 • January 1 1976 – Downtown Cairo taken over by workers from Helwan

15. Fiscal collapse • Costs of war and social subsidies had drained the treasury • The International Monetary Fund insisted on budgetary stabilization • Government lifts subsidies on flour, rice, cooking oil, sugar, bread, and butane gas

16. Total loss of control • Spontaneous riots broke out and government lost control of downtown Cairo

17. Infitah • Government seeks to integrate Egypt into regional labor markets • Allows Egyptians to leave in search of employment • Hopes to attract foreign investment • All of these require an end to the war footing of the economy and society

18. A “peace dividend” • Remittances from workers abroad • Access to oil revenues from Sinai • Transit fees from the Suez Canal • Renewal of tourism industry

19. Sadat’s trip to Jerusalem • Designed to “break the taboo” • Open negotiations with Israel to achieve Egyptian—not Arab—goals • Reassure Israelis

20. External support still needed • Final Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty required Carter’s significant involvement • US has to guarantee both sides of the other’s good behavior • US had to provide financial support