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Integrating and Evaluating Multiple PSN Strategies in Chicago

Integrating and Evaluating Multiple PSN Strategies in Chicago. Trace Meares Andrew Papachristos University of Chicago Jeffrey Fagan Columbia University. The Northern District of Illinois. Taskforce included: Chicago Police Department ATF US Attorney’s Office

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Integrating and Evaluating Multiple PSN Strategies in Chicago

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  1. Integrating and Evaluating Multiple PSN Strategies in Chicago Trace Meares Andrew Papachristos University of Chicago Jeffrey Fagan Columbia University

  2. The Northern District of Illinois • Taskforce included: • Chicago Police Department • ATF • US Attorney’s Office • Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office • Illinois Department of Corrections • Cook County Probation • City Officials • Multiple Community Organizations/Actors • Research Partners (University of Chicago and Columbia University)

  3. The Problem Homicides: Guns and Gangs on the West-Side

  4. 900 800 700 Total Number of Homicides 600 500 400 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Goal 1a – Reduce Gun Homicides Annual Homicide Counts in Chicago, 1990 to 2004 PSN Begins

  5. 1000 800 600 All Homicides Total Number of Homicides 400 200 Gang Homicides 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Gangs, Guns, and Drugs Total and Gang Homicides, 1990 to 2004

  6. PSN Beats Control Beats ATF Gun Seizures 0 - 15 16 - 31 32 - 48 49 - 67 68 - 117 Goal 1b: Going after the guns and gun offenders • Guns and Homicides are notrandomly distributed • Treatment: • 24 beats on West Side • Control: • 30 beats on South side Moran’s I = .378 , p =.001

  7. Crime Indicators

  8. PSN Strategies Ex-Offenders, Gun Teams, and Prosecutions

  9. Total Population State Court Disposition General Model of Offending and Criminal Justice System Crime Arrest Ex-Offender Population Federal Court Case Review of all gun cases by local and federal prosecutors. Decision at which level to prosecute. Community, Media, & School Programs PSN Programs and Initiatives Multi-Agency Gun Teams and Task Forces Offender Notification Letters Offender Notification Meetings PSN Chicago - Program Design

  10. Increased Federal Gun Prosecutions Deterrence Increased Federal Prison Sentences Incapacitation Increased Firearms Policing Supply-side strategies Offender Notification Meetings Deterrence Normative change PSN Interventions

  11. Evaluation Quasi-Experimental Design

  12. Quasi-Experimental Panel Design Use Near-Equivalent Control Group Panel data of every “neighborhood” in Chicago from 1999 to 2004 Multi-level modeling strategy to assess within and between group variation Data Multiple sources – CPD, ATF, IDOC, and the Census Geocoded to police beat – (~ to “neighborhoods”). Quarterly from January 1999 to December 2004 Research Design

  13. Variables • Dependent Variables / Outcome Measures: • Homicide Rate (logged) • Gun Homicide Rate (logged) • Gang-Related Homicide Rate (logged) • Aggravated Assault and Battery Arrest Rate (logged) • Neighborhood Social Indicators: • Deprivation • Concentrated Immigration • Residential Stability • Spatial Lag of beat-level Homicides (Moran’s I)

  14. PSN Treatment Variables • Offender Notification Meetings – percent of offenders in beat who have attended a meeting • Federal Prosecutions – number of prosecution in beat (logged) • Federal Prison Sentences – person-month sentences (logged) • ATF Gun Seizures – number of guns seized by beat (logged) • Index of Components – additive score of where each beat falls on quintiles of other predictors (ranges from zero to 20).

  15. 100 PSN Begins PSN Group 80 Homicide Rate per 100,000 60 Control Group 40 Other areas of City 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 year Annual Homicide Rates, 1991 to 2004

  16. 10 5 0 mean of change -5 -10 PSN Neighborhoods Control Neighborhoods Change in Neighborhood Homicide Rates, Before and After Start of PSN

  17. 10 1st Parolee Forum 8 6 Homicide Rate per 100,000 4 2 1st PSN Prosecution 0 01 Jan 00 01 Jul 01 01 Jan 03 01 Jul 04 01 Jan 06 Change in Monthly Homicide Rates in PSN Area

  18. 6 PSN Group 5 4 Homicide Rate per 100,000 Control Group 3 2 Rest of City 1 01 Jan 00 01 Jul 01 01 Jan 03 01 Jul 04 01 Jan 06 Figure 3. Change in Quarterly Homicide Rates by Assignment Groups 1st Parolee Forum

  19. Summary of Findings • Find negative effect on Homicides for: • Forums – largest effect. • Prosecutions • ATF Seizures • Additive Index • No significant effect of: • Sentence Length on Homicides • Any predictor on Agg. Battery and Agg Asslt.

  20. 10 Control Variables Gun Recoveries Sentence Length 5 Forums 0 -0.8 -1 -2.2 -5 -2.7 Prosecutions -10 -11 -15 Combined Effect -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -40.1 -45 Summary of PSN “Treatment” Effects on Quarterly Neighborhood Homicide Rates Percentage decrease in Log(Homicide Rate) associated with a one-unit increase in PSN “treatment” **N.B.: Random Effects Poisson Regression

  21. Conclusions • The observed drop in homicide is larger in the treatment vs. control area (35 percent). • Find a significant negative relationship between various PSN interventions and homicide • Forums appear to be having the largest effect, but there is a clear additive effect.

  22. This paper can be found at. . . • Social Science Research Network: www.ssrn.com

  23. Direction • Individual Level data: • Recidivism of those who attend the forum as compared to non-attendees? • The Chicago Gun Project • Offender perceptions of legitimacy/legal authority? • The role of social networks in: • Gun markets • Patterns of Offending • Nexus between community and offender capital

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