POLITICAL WAYS & MEANS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE

1. POLITICAL WAYS & MEANS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE GURMIT SINGH Chairman, CETDEM Cetdem@po.jaring.my Feb. 08, Netherlands

2. Ever wonder…

3. Greenhouse Effect

6. Global warming affects ALL • No human or ecosystem is immune • We ALL contribute in many ways [as will be shown later] • ALL are starting to pay the costs which will RISE over time • Some are MORE culpable & should ACT now

7. POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Health Climate Changes Agriculture Temperature Forests Water Resources and Aquatic Life Precipitation Coastal Areas SeaLevel Rise Species and Natural Areas Source: Anne Grambsch (1998)

9. Objectives of Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC] To achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate system to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, to ensure food production is not threatened and to enable sustainable development

10. UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES OF THE UNFCCC • PRECAUTIONARY –has been undermined by USA and others waiting for absolute scientific consensus reached; • COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATED RESPONSBILITIES – basis for Kyoto Protocol and Annex I grouping; • HISTORICAL LIABILITY –currently being ignored as major developing country emissions growth used to force them to cap & reduce.

11. CLIMATE CHANGE is a global threat but submerged in POLITICS • UNFCCC is an intergovernmental agreement- hence politics is unavoidable • But more so since there is a whole range of vested interests at stake • Those who believe they will suffer adversely CC impacts are pitted against those who are considered historically the largest GHG emitters • There is a marked North-South divide - OECD vs. non-OECD, Annex I vs. non-Annex I • Even G77 is divided between OPEC& rest, AOSIS vs. China, India & Brazil

12. THE POLITICAL STAKES • Who will dominate & who will lose out - very often based on perceptions rather than reality • The strong have managed to get their way - very often undermining equity e.g. USA dictating the Convention, the Protocol and now even rejecting it- EU & Japan have played 2nd & 3rd fiddle • Seems to be a secret strategy to delay implementing actual emission reductions UNTIL those from China, India & Brazil zoom up - then to demand these 3 also must reduce - their refusal will be used as an excuse for current OECD members not to act - the world can fry!

13. THE REALITY?

14. WHAT IS POLITICAL? • In some countries, anything that is critical of the ruling party is considered political i.e. anti-government & hence anti-national; • But to me, politics is the mobilisation of the citizens’ concerns & capabilities to govern and achieve sustainable development; • Politicians are mere agents for the achievement of the people’s aspirations NOT the masters they make themselves to be.

16. Outlook for the future Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010 linear growth estimation) 40 35 30 global 25 20 developed countries 15 10 developing countries 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000

17. Outlook for the future Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010 linear growth estimation) 6000.0 5000.0 global 4000.0 3000.0 developed countries 2000.0 1000.0 developing countries 0.0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000

18. THE FUTURE according to IPCC

19. THE POLITICAL DRIVERS • EU – both the commission & parliament –but much depends on the thrust of its citizens; • The governments of AOSIS [excluding Singapore?] and low-lying states whose territories will be flooded over; • Renewable energy industry as well developers of mitigation/ adaptation technology who see more profits from such moves.

20. CC is greater threat than any previous wars; Only way to mobilise resources and shorten timeframe to achieve the global 80% GHG reductions essential to avoid 2 deg C rise; But must be fought in SD context and eliminate global absolute poverty as well; Billions spent on military hardware MUST be redirected to TT for developing countries! GOING TO WAR!

21. EU Parliament & national leaders show potential but tend to backslide as in Bali; Even within G8, tends to give way to USA & even Canada; Member nations show uneven commitment; Equiv of Marshall Plan for TT still to be endorsed! Its style of compromising within and internationally weakens strong leadership! Has its political leadership mged to decarbonise the EU economy? IS EU A LEADER?

22. SACRIFICING & TONING DOWN ASPIRATIONS • The affluent in ALL countries have to make sacrifices in many wasteful areas but can still have a good quality of life; • Those developing economically esp in large nations like China & India must tone down their aspirations for even higher energy and resource usages with a possibility of still having a better quality of life.

23. NOTHING COMES EASY • If we want to help curb global warming, we just cannot keep pointing fingers • We must ACT - at our personal level, at our jobs, within our nation, & globally • Sustainable development [& sustainability] will NOT occur if global warming worsens esp. exceeding 2 degree C rise • Point out the inequities & stop being HYPOCRITICAL –especially among the multinationals & the rich!

24. MM has to monitor & report on how well emission reductions are being done; It should also report more extensively on scale of adverse impacts & local adaptation action; CS should expose shortcomings in political action to curb CC at all levels; It should lead campaigns to change lifestyles –beyond ME & MINE syndrome; MASS MEDIA & CIVIL SOCIETY

25. THE BALI STRUGGLE

26. The Bali Roadmap is weak and vague; Cannot wait for COP15 in 2009 for effective action to be taken; USA, even under a new President, may not take drastic action needed; Australia needs to reduce rather than increase further emissions; The next G8 meeting must move Beyond Bali; Decarbonisation of g;lobal economy begun?? BEYOND BALI! END