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Climate Change and Conflict in Bangladesh

Climate Change and Conflict in Bangladesh. Matthijs van der Hoorn June 18, 2009. Introduction. Violent Conflict. Climate Change. Introduction. The Coming Anarchy (Kaplan, 1994).

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Climate Change and Conflict in Bangladesh

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  1. Climate Change and Conflict in Bangladesh Matthijs van der Hoorn June 18, 2009

  2. Introduction Violent Conflict Climate Change

  3. Introduction • The Coming Anarchy (Kaplan, 1994). • ‘Climate change will help produce insurgencies, genocide, guerrilla attacks, gang warfare, and global terrorism’ (Homer-Dixon, 2007). • 300.000 people die of climate change every year (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009).

  4. Introduction • Bangladesh: A nation at the frontline of the climate change crisis (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). • 22 million Bangladeshis would become refugees due to climate change impacts by 2050 (IPCC, 2007). • 30 million people in 19 of 64 districts along the southern coastline have already been exposed to climate change (EquityBD, 2009).

  5. Paradox • First Paradox: • Global warming only subject of debate for de last fifteen years. • Large decrease of number of conflicts. • Second Paradox: • Not empirical foundation. • Indicative stories.

  6. Paradox *Buhaug et al, 2008: Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict

  7. Central Question Can climate change cause violent conflict in Bangladesh?

  8. Research Model Vulnerability Adaption Climate change Social Effects Consequences Violent conflict Political Instability Scarcity of Resources (Food, water, and soil insecurity) Temperature Change Economic Instability Intrastate Precipitation Change Increase of Natural Disasters Social Fragmentation Interstate Sea Level Rise Migration Mega Events (extremes)

  9. Research Model Vulnerability Adaption Climate change Consequences Temperature Change Scarcity of Resources (Food, water, and soil insecurity) Precipitation Change Sea Level Rise Increase of Natural Disasters Mega Events (extremes)

  10. Climate Change Change of Climate over time Situation A Situation B Time

  11. Climate Change Climate change • Temperature Change • Precipitation Change • Sea Level Rise • Mega Events *Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  12. Vulnerability and Adaption Vulnerability • Geographical location. • Population pressure. • Economic dependents on coastal zone. Adaption • Measures to adapt to new environmental circumstances (new agricultural methods, cyclone preparedness).

  13. Vulnerability and Adaption *UNDP, 2004: A Global Report: Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development

  14. Scarcity of Resources Scarcity of Resources: • A low (per capita) availability of a renewable resource, such as: soil, food and freshwater. • Decreasing supply or increasing demand (population pressure, increasing consumption ).

  15. Relation to Climate Change • Temperature Rise • Increasing drought • Crop failure • Increasing fresh water demand • Precipitation change • Increase in annual • rainfall • - Occurrence of short • duration heavy rainfall • Rainfall at unexpected • time • - Crop failure • Erosion of indigenous • knowledge • - Floods

  16. Relation to Climate Change Sea Level Rise - Salinity intrusion - River bank erosion - Coastal erosion - Decreasing fresh water supply - Degradation of Agricultural land • Mega Events • Extreme temperatures • Crop failure

  17. Temperature Rise *Debsarma and Hassan, 2007, Bangladesh Meteorological Department

  18. Drought *Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2006

  19. Rainfall * 1967 - 2007 *International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008

  20. Rainfall *International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008

  21. Rainfall *International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008

  22. Floods *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  23. Floods *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  24. Salinity intrusion Salinized soil in Jessore, Magura, Narail, Faridpur, Gopalgoni, and Jhalokati from 1973 - 1997 Soil Resources Development Institute (SRDI), 1998

  25. Erosion and Accretion Erosion and accretion along the Bangladeshi coastline from 1973 to 2005 *MaminulHaqueSarker and CEGIS

  26. Agricultural Land *Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query

  27. Crop and Food Production *Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query

  28. Fresh water *Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query

  29. Climate Change and Scarcity of Resources • Decrease of pre-mosoon temperature, increase of winter, mosoon, and post-mosoon temperature (not more than global average). • No significant increase of drought. • Rainfall is highly variable from year to years. No significant variation in average rainfall (50 year scale). • Floods, variable from year to year. Small increase of number of floods, decrease of affected people.

  30. Climate Change and Scarcity of Resources • Salinity intrusion, ongoing process related to sea level rise. • Erosion and accretion: likely that there is a relation between riverbank erosion and climate change. • The relation between accretion and climate change is unclear.

  31. Climate Change and Scarcity of Resources • Degradation of agricultural land (meanly in late eighties and early nineties). • Growing crop and food production. • Stable fresh water supply (in combination with a increasing population, 2% a year).

  32. Increase of Natural Disasters Natural Disasters • Global warming is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, floods, landslides, and wild fires. • A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources’ (UNISDR, 2006).

  33. Natural Disasters Hydro-meteorological Geophysical Climatological Hydrological Meteorological Earthquakes Droughts Floods Storms Volcano’s Extreme temperature Wet massmovements Dry massmovements Wildfires Natural Disasters *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  34. Natural Disasters *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  35. Natural Disasters Bangladesh *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  36. Natural Disasters Bangladesh *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  37. Tropical Cyclones *International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008

  38. Floods and Storms *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  39. Floods and Storms *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  40. Floods and Storms *EM-DAT, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  41. Climate Change and Natural Disasters • Floods, variable from year to year. Small increase of number of floods, decrease of number of affected people. • Storms, variable from year to year. • Decrease of tropical cyclone frequency. • Positive relationship of frequency of ‘Cyclone storm of hurricane intensity’ and ‘sea surface temperature’ (IUCN, 2008).

  42. Climate Change Consequences • Likely that there is a relation between climate change and food, fresh water, and soil security. • Possible that there is a relation between climate change and an increase of cyclone storms of hurricane intensity. • But, no smoking gun.

  43. Research Model Social Effects Consequences Political Instability Scarcity of Resources (Food, water, and soil insecurity) Economic Instability Increase of Natural Disasters Social Fragmentation Migration

  44. Political instability • The majority of violent conflicts can be explained, at last partly, by scarcity of fundamental resources and the disability of the state to proved them (Buhaug .et al, 2008) • Disability of a government to properly react, at for example the impact of a cyclone, can cause political unrest.

  45. Political instability • Environmental change was not a big issue by the last elections. • Rural people are more focused on local politicians. • People accept that the poor and institutionally weak regime may simple not be able to respond in an manner that is satisfying for the population. • Not likely that climate change will cause political instability.

  46. Economic instability • Poverty has long been considered a major cause of civil war (Collier et al, 2003) • Increasing inequality • Dynamics • State level • Group level • Individual level

  47. Economic instability *Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query

  48. Economic instability *Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query

  49. Economic instability *Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query

  50. Economic instability *Worldbank, 2009: World Development Indicators, DPP Quick Query

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