Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment

1. Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment�

3. Regional model � modeled systems Transmission networks of all power systems in the region Russia Romania Georgia Ukraine Bulgaria Armenia Moldova Turkey Equivalent of western and south-eastern UCTE grid (ENTSO-E)

4. Regional model � Existing Interconnectors

5. Regional model - characteristics High voltage network-transmission network 750kV,500kV,400kV,330kV,220kV,150kV,110kV network Generator units at their nominal voltage level Step-up transformers for main generation capacities All new substations and lines that are expected to be operational till 2020 (according to the long term development plans) Development of Regional model Guidelines

6. BSTP � Regimes modeled Load flow Model development 2010 Winter peak, 2010 Summer off-peak 2010 Summer peak 2015 Winter peak 2015 Summer peak 2015 Summer off-peak 2020 Winter peak 2020 Summer peak 2020 Summer off-peak

7. Studies � Regional model analyses Promoting regional cooperation in transmission planning among Black Sea region TSOs Collect national inputs and the development plans that will be used for power transmission system analysis Load flow analyses loading of the network feasibility of base case exchanges voltage profile analyses contingency analyses (n-1 security check) Border capacity overview �bottle neck� evaluation (congestions) Regional transmission planning rules Identify potential transmission investment projects

8. Studies � Dynamic model development Dynamic stability major concern in region system stability is major limiting factor for system operation and high electricity exchange level - necessity to analyze dynamic system behavior check the maximum exchanges scenarios for stability Russian built excitation systems to be modeled (non standard models) New units (confirmation and verification) HVDC devices Dynamic model characteristics 395GW production modeled (156GW in equivalents of UCTE and part of Russia, 239GW real power plants, of which 7.1GW in wind power) in 1183 generators

9. Studies � network capacities evaluation Evaluation of network transfer capabilities ETSO methodology used Identify the existing potential for electric power trade in the region Verify values through dynamic analyses Critical regimes (exchange) Select outage to investigate Monitor machines

10. Regional model-balances and exchanges All countries in the region have surplus of power Very limited transfer capacities

11. Regional model-balances and exchanges

12. Studies � results Border capacities present

13. Studies � results Border capacities 2015

14. Studies � results Georgia-Turkey border 220 kV line Batumi-Hopa (300MVA) 400kV HVDC Akhalchike-Borcka (600MW) Total capacity 900MVA Static capacity 750MW Dynamic capacity 750MW

15. Studies � results Georgia-Armenia border 220 kV line Gardabani-Alaverdi (270MVA) 2X400kV line Qsani-Hrazdan (1330MVA) Total capacity 1600 MVA Static capacity 1200MW Dynamic capacity 750MW Limiting factor short circuit on Sipan line in duration 0.55s (critical clearing time)

16. Studies � results Georgia-Turkey border 220 kV line Batumi-Hopa (300MVA) 400kV HVDC Akhalchike-Borcka (600MW) Total capacity 900MVA Static capacity 1200MW Dynamic capacity 750MW

17. Studies � results Composite capacities

18. Results, Findings & Conclusions 2015 & 2020 Model Status National and Regional Load Flow and Dynamic Models have been built, tested and distributed. 2015 models are realistic and have been used to produce these reported results. 2020 models need additional work: Adjust for world economic conditions Adjust to include projected renewable energy supplies

19. Results, Findings & Conclusions Projected Synchronous Operations in the Black Sea Region Presently 3 synchronous zones: ENTSO-E, IPS/UPS and Turkey. 2015 Possibilities are: 2 zones: ENTSO-E (including Turkey) and IPS/UPS 3 zones: ENTSO-E (including Turkey), Ukraine and Moldova in ENTSO-E testing mode and IPS/UPS. 2 zones: ENTSO-E (that includes Turkey, Ukraine and Moldova) and IPS/UPS.

20. Results, Findings & Conclusions Regional Power Balance 2015 Winter Peak Export Potential = 4,015MW Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Armenia have excess capacity in winter Georgia and Moldova are balanced in winter Turkey has a winter peak deficit 2015 Summer Peak Export Potential = 4,400MW Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Armenia, Georgia have excess capacity in summer Moldova is balanced in summer Turkey has a summer peak deficit

21. Results, Findings and Conclusions National Border Capacities Presently limited between: Russia and Georgia Georgia and Armenia Georgia and Turkey Improvements by 2015 HVDC Connection between Georgia & Turkey 400 kV connection between Armenia & Georgia New connection between Turkey and Greece

22. Results, Findings & Conclusions Regional Composite Transfer Capacities Assuming Synchronous Operations in the Region Capacity to Drive Large Quantities of Power Along Market Realistic Routes Large Indicative Values of Transfer Capacity in 2015 but all areas are NOT Synchronous To realize potential Synchronous operation Strategic Locations for HVDC or Island Mode solutions

23. Results, Findings & Conclusions Importance of using Dynamic Analysis in the Region. Dynamic stability further limits interchange capacities calculated using the static security evaluation method Georgia/Armenia Georgia/Turkey

24. Potential Next Steps Updates of 2015 and 2020 Models More Realistic Models Integrating Renewables Training on Modeling Renewables with PSS/E Study Tours TSO Partnerships Additional Synchronous Scenarios for 2015 3 Synchronous Zones: 1)ENTSO-E (including Turkey); 2) Ukraine & Moldova in ENTSO-E Test Mode; and 3) IPS/UPS 2 Synchronous Zones: 1) ENTSO-E (including Turkey); 2) Ukraine and Moldova in IPS/UPS

25. Potential Next Steps Analysis of network capacity based on most likely market based trade scenarios To utilize Potential of Black Sea Network: Additional Synchronous Scenarios for 2020 2 Synchronous Zones: 1) ENTSO-E including Turkey, Ukraine & Moldova; and 2) IPS/UPS 2 Synchronous Zones: 1) ENTSO-E including Turkey; and 2) IPS/UPS (including Ukraine & Moldova Strategic Locations for HVDC or Island Mode solutions

26. Thank You!