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The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany Motivation CSTAR II Project Northeast Warm Season Severe Weather
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The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany
Motivation • CSTAR II Project • Northeast Warm Season Severe Weather • Identify the role terrain features and land/water boundaries (i.e. Great Lakes, Long Island Sound, Chesapeake Bay, etc.) have on convective development and evolution • Several case studies will analyzed and a climatology will attempt to be developed • Mesoscale datasets (observational and model)
Contributors to CSTAR II Project • Thomas Niziol, (MIC) WFO at Buffalo • Bob LaPlante, (SOO) WFO at Cleveland • Steven Zubrick, (SOO) WFO at Sterling • Dr. Lance Bosart, University at Albany • Dr. Daniel Keyer, University at Albany • Warren Snyder, (SOO) WFO at Albany
Data • Surface and Upper Air Data (SPC) • Soundings from SPC archive • 40-km RUC, 80 km ETA grids • Satellite imagery • Radar data (High resolution KENX Archive Level IV)
Background August 9, 2001 Event • A hot and very humid air mass was in place over NY and New England • Surface temps ranging from 32˚C to 37˚C (Syracuse high temp of 100˚F <ASOS>) • Surface dewpoints 20-25˚C coupled with large values of surface based CAPE (exceeding 2000 J/kg) • Numerous reports of straight line wind damage (60 to 80 mph) in the Mohawk Valley and hail to the size of hen eggs (2 inches or 5.1 cm)
Storm Reports across Northeast • NY-VT-NH-ME • 21 Wind Reports • 2 Hail Reports
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 500 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs www.spc.noaa.gov
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 850 hPa Raob Heights, Temps, Dewpoints and Isotachs www.spc.noaa.gov
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 250 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs www.spc.noaa.gov
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC ALB Sounding www.spc.noaa.gov
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC BUF Sounding www.spc.noaa.gov
10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC BUF Sounding www.spc.noaa.gov
10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC ALB Sounding www.spc.noaa.gov
Lake Ontario SST’s http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K) 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines 250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hr and 12-hr Forecasts for 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K) 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 6- hr forecast for 1800 UTC 700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent 850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 12-hour Forecast for 00 UTC MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 12-hour Forecast for 0000 UTC 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K) 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded
40 km RUC Analyses 9 AUG 2001/1500-2200 UTC
RUC: 9 August 2001/1500 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1600 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1700 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1800 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1800 UTC Analysis MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness (dam) Pressure tendency (mb/hour)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1900 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/2000 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/2100 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
AUG 9 2001 2100 UTC Surface Analysis with Radar and Satellite www.unisys.com
RUC: 9 August 2001/2200 UTC Analysis 2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots) 2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
KENX Radar Analysis Highlights of the Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New England
2141 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section Herkimer Co. Storm