Diplomacy and Information

1. Diplomacy and Information Lsn 12

2. Strategy • Strategy is the pursuit, protection, or advancement of national interests through the application of the instruments of power • Instruments of power (DIME) • Diplomatic • Informational • Military • Economic

3. Diplomatic Communication • In pursuing their own objectives, governments must communicate with those whose actions and behavior they wish to influence • Communication can occur informally or indirectly at banquets or press conferences • Usually it is done through formal diplomatic channels or by direct communication between foreign ministers and heads of state Chinese diplomatic reception honoring ties with Russia

4. Diplomatic Communication • Subjects of communication • Government objectives • Rationalizations for those objectives • Threats • Promises • Holding out of possibilities for concluding agreements on contentious issues

5. Diplomatic Communication • Goals of communication • Partial success: Getting the second government to see a particular situation as the first government sees it • Complete success: Getting the second government to alter or maintain its actions in a way favorable to the first government’s interests

6. Diplomatic Recognition • Diplomatic recognition • Traditionally recognition of a new state occurred almost automatically once a political unit obtained a defined territory, permanent population, and government capable of entering into diplomatic and treaty relations • Now it is a much more controversial, complicated, and political process

7. Diplomatic Recognition • Recognition bestows a form of external legitimacy and support • If the new state seceded from a parent state by violence or the new government came to power by irregular procedures, recognition may be problematic • In other cases the international community has recognized states before they met the traditional requirements simply because without that external support the state would not be viable The United States and the People’s Republic of China did not recognize each other and establish diplomatic relations until January 1, 1979.

8. Diplomatic Relations • Even after diplomatic relations have been established they can be disrupted • Disruption serves as a way of exerting diplomatic pressure to influence behavior • Countries may deal only through a third party • Countries may downgrade their relations • Countries may recall their ambassador Canada called home its ambassador to China after the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre

9. Diplomatic Relations • The concept of a formal mission began in Europe in the 15th Century • The few number of nation states in those days made it possible for two parties to work out affairs with each other that did not impinge on the interests of others • As the number of nation states grew, bilateral negotiations often gave way to ad hoc multinational conferences • Today there are many permanent multilateral diplomatic and technical organizations The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is a 55-member pan-European security organization

10. The United Nations • The purposes of the UN are to • maintain international peace and security • develop friendly relations among nations • cooperate in solving international economic, social, cultural and humanitarian problems and in promoting respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms • be a center for harmonizing the actions of nations in attaining these ends The United Nations came into being in 1945

11. The United Nations • General Assembly • All UN member states are represented in the General Assembly which meets regularly and in special sessions as a “parliament of nations” to consider global issues an problems • Each member state has one vote • The Assembly cannot force action by any state, but its recommendations are an important indication of world opinion and represent the moral authority of the community of nations

12. The United Nations • Security Council • Has primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security • May convene at any time, whenever peace is threatened. • All member states are obligated to carry out the Council's decisions. • There are15 Council members • China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States are permanent members. • The other 10 are elected by the General Assembly for two-year terms. • Decisions of the Council require nine yes votes • Permanent members have veto authority

13. Diplomatic Communication • Purposes • Exchange views, probe intentions, attempt to convince other governments that certain actions would be in their interest • No hard bargaining in this type of communication • Stall or create the illusion that a government is seriously interested in bargaining, even if they aren’t • Make propaganda • Designed to undermine the bargaining position of the other government, especially in the eyes of the outside public

14. Formal Negotiating Process • Setting • Open vs closed meeting • Bilateral vs multilateral meeting • Crisis situation or not • Open or closed time schedule • Mediator or direct participants only

15. Formal Negotiating Process • Rules • Place (city) • Parties and size of delegations • Languages • Seating arrangements • Press coverage Seating arrangements at the Vietnam Peace Conference had to be changed to accommodate the Viet Cong, whose presence the US did not want to legitimize as being independent from Hanoi

16. Formal Negotiating Process • Substantive Bargaining • Presentation of positions (original objectives of parties) • Presentation of demands or conditions • Symbolic acts or signals (may create new alternatives or revisions of maximum and minimum conditions) • Persuasion • Promises • Threats • Commitments • Concessions

17. Formal Negotiating Process • Possible outcomes • Treaty or understanding • Postponement of negotiations • Ending negotiations and leaving problem unresolved Signing of the Paris Peace Talks

18. Case Study North Vietnam

19. First Indochina War • The First Indochina War was a communist military victory, but the peace negotiations were disappointing to Ho Chi Minh • On the very day that Dien Bien Phu fell, delegates from the former Indochina, France, the United States, Russia, China, and Britain met in Geneva, Switzerland to conduct peace negotiations • The French decided to relinquish all claims on Vietnam, but in the midst of the Cold War, the United States was not about to surrender Vietnam to communist control.

20. First Indochina War • Instead, after two and a half months of peace negotiations, the delegates decided to “temporarily” divide Vietnam at the 17th parallel. • Ho Chi Minh’s communist forces were only to take control of the North, while the South was placed under the control of United States-backed Vietnamese nationalists, led by Emperor Bao Dai. • According to the stipulations of the partition, Vietnam was to be divided for a period of two years until elections could be held to reunify peacefully the country under a single government

21. Second Indochina War • In the Second Indochina War (the one involving the US), the communists would prove to be very astute negotiators • Confident that US domestic support would eventually crack, the North Vietnamese knew time was on their side when it came to negotiating. • As early as 1962, North Vietnamese Premier Pham Van Dong had predicted, “Americans do not like long inconclusive wars—and this is going to be a long inconclusive war.” • Dong was exactly right, and North Vietnamese negotiating tactics supported his prophecy.

22. Second Indochina War • One aspect of the Maoist doctrine used by the North Vietnamese was the well-orchestrated interaction of political and military operations. • Especially after the military defeat at Tet, the North Vietnamese maximized the classic “fighting while negotiating” strategy. • Closely coordinated military, political, and diplomatic moves were all designed to apply various pressures on the United States and exacerbate differences between the American and South Vietnamese allies.

23. Second Indochina War • The North Vietnamese showed little interest in substantive negotiations and certainly were not sincere about any real compromise. • They rejected US demands for reciprocity and refused any terms that would limit their ability to support the war in the South while leaving the US a free hand there.

24. Second Indochina War • Throughout all negotiations, the North Vietnamese remained keenly aware of US domestic politics, including election cycles. • For example, when President Johnson made a focused attempt to reach a negotiated settlement prior to the November 1968 national elections, the North Vietnamese knew they had the upper hand. • On October 31, on the basis of informal, unwritten “understandings” that the North Vietnamese neither officially accepted nor rejected, the United States completely halted its bombing. • Having achieved the desired objective, the North Vietnamese then proceeded to ignore the “understandings.”

25. Second Indochina War • Later, when President Nixon tried to negotiate through intermediaries in the summer and fall of 1969, the North Vietnamese merely dragged out the negotiations in order to buy time to recover from Tet and to pressure the United States to make concessions.

26. Second Indochina War • The North Vietnamese also proved to be masterful in manipulating the “blue-chips” held by each side in the negotiating process. • For the North Vietnamese these blue-chips were infiltration and prisoners of war, and they guarded these jealously. • The United States on the other hand was excessively generous in compromising with its blue-chip of the bombing campaign. • Even when the North Vietnamese were willing to make token concessions, infiltration and bombing were always an unequal trade because of the ease in which bombing could be monitored versus the difficulty in detecting infiltration.

27. Second Indochina War • The North Vietnamese also recognized prisoners as their major bargaining weapon and tied their release exclusively to an American withdrawal. • In nearly every aspect, the North Vietnamese proved to be far superior negotiators than the Americans.

28. Case Study Haiti

29. Haiti • Jean-Bertrand Aristide was elected president of Haiti in December 1990 • Lieutenant General Raoul Cedras deposed Aristide in a coup in September 1991

30. Haiti • Cedras’s authoritarian rule motivated thousands of Haitians to flee to the US in fragile boats and the US became increasingly concerned with both human rights issues and regional instability • While preparing to invade Haiti with 20,000 troops, President Clinton also dispatched a negotiating team consisting of former President Jimmy Carter, Senator Sam Nunn, and General Colin Powell to Haiti in a last ditch diplomatic effort in September 1994

31. Haiti • Carter • Former president with strong negotiating credentials such as the 1978 Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt and monitoring elections • Reputation as a non-partisan peacemaker • Had foreign policy difficulties of his own as president, but was very active and much more effective as a former president

32. Haiti • Powell • Represented the military capability of the United States • Status as a black American of Caribbean ancestry also gave him credibility in Haiti

33. Haiti • Nunn • Senator from Georgia with 20 years legislative experience including Chairman of the Armed Services Committee • Represented the role Congress would play in any US invasion as well as America’s commitment to the democratic process

34. Haiti • An eleventh-hour breakthrough in the negotiations occurred only after US television reports showed paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division departing from Fort Bragg, North Carolina en route to Haiti • Cedras agreed to leave power by October 15 (offered asylum in Panama) • Over 20,000 US forces deployed to Haiti to enforce the agreement and supervise the transition

35. Practical Exercise China and Taiwan

36. Communist China • After World War II, civil war in China resumed between nationalist and communist forces • The communist forces prevailed and the national government under Chaing Kai-shek withdrew to Taiwan where it continued to proclaim itself the legitimate government of China

37. Communist China • At the same time, Mao Zedong, chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, proclaimed the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on Oct 1, 1949 Chaing Kai-shek Mao Zedong

38. Communist China and the USSR • At first Mao set out to imitate Soviet socialism, to include implementing a Five-Year Plan that emphasized expansion of heavy industry at the expense of consumer goods • Beijing recognized Moscow’s undisputed authority in world communism in exchange for Russian military and economic aid • Soviet diplomats initiated a campaign to transfer the Chinese seat in the United Nations Security Council from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China, a move that finally occurred in 1971

39. China and Taiwan • In 1971 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution 2758 which recognized “that the representatives of the Government of the People’s Republic of China are the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations”

40. Taiwan’s Position • A broad popular consensus has developed in Taiwan that the island currently enjoys sovereign independence and - whatever the ultimate outcome regarding reunification or independence - that Taiwan’s people must have the deciding voice

41. China’s Position • China considers Taiwan its 23rd province • In 2007, the Solomon Islands and a few other countries proposed that the UN General Assembly consider Taiwan for UN membership • Chinese UN Ambassador Wang Guangya responded in a letter to Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that called the proposal “a blatant attempt to clamor for and create ‘Taiwan independence’" and characterized it as “absolutely preposterous” • Wang said the proposal “wantonly tramples on the purposes and principles” of the UN Charter and “seriously violates China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, gravely intervenes in China's internal affairs and seriously hurts the feelings of the 1.3 billion Chinese people”

42. Hypothetical Situation • A new government is elected in Taiwan which campaigns on a platform to establish Taiwan as a sovereign nation and enter the UN • Taiwan then holds a referendum in which 75% of the population votes to seek UN membership • Roleplay the diplomatic negotiating process as each party begins to establish its position • China • Taiwan • US • UN

43. Next • Instruments of Power: Military and Economy