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Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies

Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies. New & Renewable Energy Technologies in Japan. November 11, 2004. Hideo Shindo. Chief Representative of Washington DC Office New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO). 1. Security of E nergy Supply Alternatives to oil.

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Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies

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  1. Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies New & Renewable Energy Technologies in Japan November 11, 2004 Hideo Shindo Chief Representative of Washington DC Office New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) 1

  2. Security of Energy SupplyAlternatives to oil 3Es Harmony with EnvironmentLowering CO2 emission Economic Efficiency Market mechanism Principle of Japan’s Energy Policy: 3Es *The Basic Plan on Energy endorsed by the Cabinet in October 2003 →Four Fundamental Measures • Promoting Energy Conservation Measures • Ensuring a Stable Supply of Oil • Development and introduction of Diverse Sources of Energy • Basing the Energy Market on Market Principles 2

  3. Energy in Japan in Comparison to the World Characteristics Ratio of the Self-supply of Energy in Major Countries (2000) (％) Fragile Energy Supply Structure - Scarce domestic energy resources - Low ratio of self-supply of energy compared to other major countries - High dependency on oil from the Middle East Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002” Dependency on the Middle East for Oil and Dependency on Oil in the World (2000-2001) Primary Energy Supply and Its Ratio in Major Countries (2000) （％） Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002” Source: BP Statistics 2002 and IEA, Oil and Gas Information (2002)

  4. METI’sMajor Energy-Related R&D Targets &Challenges 4

  5. METI’s Energy R&D Expenditures (in FY2004/5) （Unit：million JPY） 5

  6. Japan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators Supply Side New Energy Renewable Energy Source : Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI 6

  7. Type Photovoltaic power Wind power Waste power Biomass power Small- and medium-scale hydropower Residential Non-residential Large- scale Small- and medium- scale Large- scale Small- and medium- scale Power generation cost 46~66 73 9~14 18~24 9~11 11~12 7~21 14 Type Nuclear power LNG-fired Coal-fired Oil-fired Power generation cost 5.9 6.4 6.5 10.2 Cost Competitiveness of NRE Power generation cost of new energy (Unit: JPY/kWh) Source : Report by the New Energy Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (July 2001), and others Power generation cost by power source (Unit: JPY/kWh) Source : Data of the 70th Nuclear Power Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Energy(December 1999) 7

  8. ：Market scale Creation of Initial Demand Market independence Creation of initial demand Technical development Diffusion Difficulty Level Cannot be sold without support ▪ High cost ▪ Competition with existing products ▪ Construction of a total energy system ▪ A lack of social awareness Synergistic effect of mass production and cost reduction This period is important. この時期が重要 Period of market creation Development of new products Period of independence and expansion in the market Period of market maturity 8

  9. ( New Energy ) Compatible cost with existing energies Development based on realistic / applicable conditions ( Energy Conservation ) Increasing energy efficiency of Industry / / Transportation sectors Commercial& Household Verification Demonstration, Overseas Verification Penetration Support • Geological balance & recipient characteristics to be considered • Comprehensive support for Industry / / Transportation sectors • Verify developed technology in all aspects Commercial& Household R & D(with a view to commercialization) TrinityApproach Contribution to realize “Long-term Energy Supply/Demand Outlook” (2010) 9 NEDO’s Energy-Related Activities

  10. NEDO R&D Expenditures (in FY2004) （Unit：million JPY） ★ 10

  11. Issues and Measures for Implementation of New and Renewable Energies 11

  12. International Comparisons — Installed PV Capacity (Unit: MW) 12 Source : IEA / PVPS (As of the end of 2002)

  13. PV Power Generation Capacity in Japan 13

  14. Themes: 　・Recycling and reuse process 　・EMC evaluation and measures Themes: ・Low-cost mc-Si substrates 　・Amorphous-Si solar cells on plastic film Themes: 　・TF crystalline Si 　・TF CIS Themes: 　・Wide bandgap microcrystalline SiC, 　・Carbon-based thin-film, ・Ｄye-sensitized PV R&D Scenario for 2010 Infrastructure Infrastructure PV System Technology for Mass Deployment Demonstrative Research on ClusteredPV Systems Mass Production Cost Reduction Development of Advanced Manufacturing Technology Module manufacturing cost < 140JPY/W Performance Outcomes (2010) ・CO2 reduction ＝1.6Mt at 4.82GW (accum.) 　・\2 trillion market in next 10 years at 4.82GW (accum.) ・Domestic PV mass deployment, global environment solution and contribution, etc. Development of Advanced Solar Cells + Modules Module Manufacturing cost < 100JPY/W Seeds Investigation for Innovative PV Technology Cost approx. 50JPY/W R&D Mass deployment Innovation Practical use Mass production and promotion Advanced solar cells 14 2001 2005 2010

  15. Wind Power Generation Capacity in Japan Introduction Volume [MW] Number of Turbines End of FY2003 684MW, 738Turbines (Preliminary) Fiscal Year Source: NEDO research data 15

  16. Expanded Application of Wind Power Generation Scenario ２００２ ２００５ ２０１０ Application stage Diffusion stage Wind conditions Model of regional wind conditions Map of wind conditions Wind power generation field test Wind turbines For distant islands Technology progress at private companies Technology development, demonstration test Stabilizing system Generation side Stabilizing wind power generation electricity system System side Electricity system measures → demonstration test Maintenance of hardware infrastructure/application support Application support (review of supplementary scheme) Indicator application for 2010 : 3,000ＭＷ Electricity system measures →System enforcement support measure Measures for application and diffusion Maintenance of infrastructure on software side RPS Law (2003～) Examination of review-related systems and restrictions aiming for an expanded market Examination of international standardization 16

  17. Conditions for Biomass Energy in Japan Potential Quantity of Waste Biomass Energy Source : 26 Million kl (Forecast for FY2010) 20% Used Source Amount 4.95 Million kl (FY2000 basis) Unused Sources Incineration Disposal, Reclamation Disposal, Ocean Dumping 21.05 Million kl Technical Background Social Requirement Indicator for Biomass Energy Introduction 5.95 Million kl (FY2010) Utilization of Unused Sources • Evolution of Biotechnology • Research on New Reaction Fields (Supercritical • Technology) 30% Miniaturization, Higher-Efficiency and Higher Device Performance (Note) Total Sum of Indicator for New Energy Introduction 19.10 Million kl (FY2010) • Environmental Issues (CO2 emission reductions) • Waste Problems (Shortage of Final Disposal • Sites, Dioxin Generation with • Incineration Disposal, Ban on Ocean Dumping Reference : Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, "Report of Working Party on New Energy,“ etc. 17

  18. Expanded Application of Biomass Energy Scenario ２０１０ ２００５ ２００２ Application Stage Diffusion Stage Technology development, demonstration test Conversion technology Development of high efficiency biomass conversion technology Higher efficiency conversion and lower cost. Indicator applications for 2010 Power generation: 340,000 kl Heat: 670,000 kl Black liquor and scrap wood: 4,940,000 kl Practical use and diffusion promotion Demonstration test of unused energy Application, Full-scale market expansion Measures aiming for application and diffusion Deciding regional vision Project formation promotion businesses from regions Application support (support for local governments and the public sector) Overall action through cooperation of each ministry, without limitation to energy utilization based on “Biomass Nippon Strategy” Maintenance of infrastructure on software side (system side) Examination of liquid fuel utilization Putting it into practice, diffusion RPS Law (2003～)

  19. Scenario for Practical Application and Diffusion of Fuel Cells 2020 2002 2005 2010 Introductory stage Ground work and technology demonstration stage Diffusion stage Market will naturally grow and expand Accelerate introduction Initial introduction of fuel cell vehicle and stationary fuel cells Firm Activity Year 2020 Fuel Cell Vehicles : 5,000,000 Stationary Fuel Cells 10GW Year 2010 Fuel Cell Vehicles : 50,000 Stationary Fuel Cells 2.2GW Effort until around 2005 will be very important for future stages Promoting Introduction (Public sectors and FC industries will adopt FCVs) Commer-cialization Policy on accelerating Introduction Promoting Commercialization Verification Test(2002～2005）(Demonstration program on FCV road test, hydrogen station, and stationary fuel cells) Fuel supply system Establishment of fuel supply system mainly by the private sector Stepwise Installment Review of Regulations Soft Infrastructure Millennium Project (2000～2004） ［Establishment of standards, International harmonization] R&D on fuel cells R&D on hydrogen utilization R&D R&D on basic factors that contribute further to improving performance and cost reduction

  20. New Activities • Major Focus areas in New/Renewable Energy R&D • - PV : ↓Cost through Thin Film Technology; • Breakthrough in Performance & Durability in Dye-Sensitized PV Cells • - Biomass : ↓Cost; ↑Durability through Simplification of Systems • - Wind : ↑Operating ratio in Japanese Wind condition; • Validation of Necessary Strength • - FC : ↑Durability in System Operation; ↓Cost through Largescale Demonstration • 2. PV Roadmap Toward 2030 • Target : PV Cumulative Installed Capacity 100GW (2030), • PV Power Generation to supply 50% of Residential Electricity • Consumption (10% of Total Electricity Consumption) • PV Electricity Cost : 7 Yen/kWh (2030) (vs. 49 Yen/kWh(2002)) • PV Module Production Cost: 50 Yen/W (2030) • http://www.nedo.go.jp/english/informations/161027/pv2030roadmap.pdf 20

  21. New Activities(cont’d) • New Project Proposals for FY2005 (Examples) • PV : R&D Pj. for Technologies to Accelerate Introduction of PV Power Generation System to the Market • (1/2 Subsidy for Development Cost, JPY 2.15B for 3 years) • Solar Thermal : R&D Pj. for Innovative Use of Solar Thermal Energy Systems (JPY 1.50B for 3 years) • FC : Strategic R&D Pj. for PEFC Systems for Practical Use • (JPY 5.45B) (more focus on systematic development) • Hydrogen: R&D Pj. for Fundamental Technology for Hydrogen Society • (JPY 3.58B) (focus on safety, codes & standards) 21

  22. 3/25/2005 ～9/25/2005 New Activities(cont’d) 4. New Energy Hybrid Demonstration System at EXPO 2005Welcome!! 22

  23. New Energy Hybrid Demonstration System at EXPO 2005 3/25/2005 ～9/25/2005 Electric Power System Electric Power Network atExpo Japanese Government Pabvilion PV : 330kW SOFC（50kW） Absorption chiller NＡS Battery System 　 ５００ｋW Transformer Equipment PAFC（800kW） Absorption chiller Methane Fermentation System MCFC（350kW） Absorption chiller Waste （4.8 t/d） Cool Water Woodchips & Plastic Heat （20kg/h） Granulation Absorption chiller High-temperature Gasification System Air Conditioner MCFC（370kW） 23 （City Gas）

  24. Conclusions • Japan’s energy supply structure is fragile. • 2. Diversification of energy supplies and decrease in energy demands are crucial. • 3.New / renewable energy is important though the market share is rather small. • 4.PV, Biomass, Wind, FC & Hydrogen : Important R&D areas. 24

  25. Thank you for your attention. More Info: http://www.nedo.go.jp/index.html　　（Jpn) http://www.nedo.go.jp/english/index.html　　（Eng) E-mail:shindo@nedodc.org 25

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