WARNING SYSTEMS AND PUBLIC RESPONSE

1. WARNING SYSTEMS AND PUBLIC RESPONSE Social Science Research Findings and Evidence Based Applications for Practice (Rev 13)

2. PRIMARY AUTHORS • Dennis S. Mileti • Professor Emeritus • University of Colorado at Boulder & • START Center, University of Maryland, College Park • Erica Kuligowski • Research Associate • University of Colorado at Boulder & • START Center, University of Maryland, College Park

3. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • Contributors: • John H. Sorensen, Oak Ridge Nat’l Lab • Barbara Vogt-Sorensen, Oak Ridge Nat’l Lab • Reviewers: • Susan Cutter,University of South Carolina • David Gillespie, Washington University • Kathleen Tierney, University of Colorado

4. DISCLAIMER • Supported by: • U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Grant Number N00140510629 to the START Center, University of Maryland at College Park • However: • Opinions, findings & conclusions are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security

5. PURPOSE • SYNTHESIZE: • Findings from social science public warning research for hazards • Do it in plain language • PRESENT: • Evidence-based applications for practice • Regarding the….

6. FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION How do you Help People in Danger to: -STOP….. -HEAR…. & -TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS FOR….

7. TERRORIST ATTACKS

8. TECHNOLOGICAL EVENTS

9. NATURAL DISASTERS

10. HAZARDOUS MATERIALSand more….

11. INCLUDING PUBLIC PROTECTIVE ACTIONS SUCH AS….

12. VEHICLE EVACUATION

13. SIDEWALK & STAIRWELL EVACUATION

14. SHELTERING IN PLACE

15. BREATHING PROTECTION

16. THE RESEARCH BASIS • 50+ Years “Warning Response” Research • Emphasis on U.S. publics • Researched Hazards Include: • Natural: Hurricane Camille, Mt. St. Helens • Terrorism: World Trade Center 1993 & 9/11 • Hazardous Materials: Mississauga, Nanticoke • Technology: Three Mile Island • Building Fires: MGM Grand, Cook County Hospital • We Know: • What works, what doesn’t & why, & how to apply it

17. RESEARCH ON PEOPLE IN COMMUNITIES • 350 Page Annotated Bibliography (1 page/publication with key findings) is Available at: • http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/publications/informer/infrmr2/pubhazbibann.pdf

18. MOST COMPREHENSIVE SYNTHESIS TO DATE • Mileti, Dennis S., and John H. Sorensen. 1990. Communication of Emergency Public Warnings: A Social Science Perspective and State-of-the-Art Assessment. Report #ORNL-6609. Oak Ridge, TN: Report #ORNL-6609 for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. (Available on line as a pdf file) • Can be found at: http://emc.ornl.gov/EMCWeb/EMC/PDF/CommunicationFinal.pdf

19. RESEARCH ON OCCUPANTS • 150 Entry Bibliography is Available at: • http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/library/BuildingsEvacBib2007.doc

20. “PEOPLE” KNOWLEDGE TRANSCENDS HAZARDS • PEOPLE STAY PEOPLE: • Across hazards • AND THE SAME FACTORS: • Determine public behavior across hazards & events • Mathematically modeled & same equations apply • BUT OUTCOMES VARY ACROSS EVENTS: • Because of different quantities for the factors that determine public response occur in different events, e.g., warning message quality, gender & age

21. WE’LL COVER 12 TOPICS • 1. Warning System Definition • 2. Warning System Preparedness • 3 Myths • 4 Alert • 5. Diffusion • 6. Mobilization • 7. Notification, Messaging & Public Response • 8. Compliance • 9. Monitoring, Evaluation, & Feedback • 10. Destinations • 11. Modernizing Warning Systems • 12. Next Steps

22. TOPIC 1: WARNING SYSTEM DEFINITION • Warnings Systems Mean: • Different things to different people • All Warning System Have: • The same subsystems • Integrating the Subsystems: • Reduces warning system failures

23. WARNING SYSTEM SUBSYSTEMS • SUBSYSTEM 1 = Risk Environment: • Natural, technological, civil • SUBSYSTEM 2 = Detection: • Monitoring, detection, data assessment, data analysis, prediction, & informing • SUBSYSTEM 3 = Management: • Interpretation, decision to warn, method of warning, content of warning, channel of warning, monitoring response for feedback & warning revision • SUBSYSTEM 4 = Public Response: • Interpretation, confirmation, response, & warning others

24. INTEGRATING SUBSYSTEMS Risk Environment Subsystem Management Subsystem Cues Inform & Interpret Monitor Monitor WARNING Detection Subsystem Public Response Subsystem Inform

25. TOPIC 2: WARNING SYSTEM PREPAREDNESS • Warning System Preparedness: • Elaborate the subsystems • Develop linkages between them • Major Goals: • The rarely used system will work when needed • Weave together organizations, agencies, levels of government & disciplines that rarely interact • No communication link in the chain breaks

26. ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS • Ready the Warning Players: • Warning plans, operating procedures & protocols • Warning training & exercises • Warning human factors issues addressed • Warning standards of performance • Evidence based: • Warning messages & dissemination channels • Prime the Audience: • Public warning & response education • “Grow” the Warning System Rationally: • Development priorities based on risk assessment

27. TOPIC 3: THREE MYTHS • A MYTH EXISTS WHEN PEOPLE: • BELIEVEits true (but its not) • Think they have EVIDENCE for it (but they don’t) • WON’T STOP BELIEVINGit (no matter what) • Here Are Three of Them…..

28. MYTH 1: PANIC • Non-problem: • Never occurred after a warning • Actual Problem: • “We didn’t issue a warning so we wouldn’t cause a panic” • Panic Occurs When: • Spaces are confined • Escape routes ARE available, but • People think: not enough time for everyone to use them, resulting in • People must: “compete to live” • Even then, Panic is Rare

29. MYTH 2: “KISS” • Definition: • “Keep it simple stupid” • Myth: • Applies to public warning messages • Reality: • Applies to advertising, not public warnings • Warned people become “information starved” • If those who warn don’t say enough, the public will find it elsewhere & confusion can result

30. MYTH 3: CRY WOLF • Myth: • People don’t respond after false alarms • Reality: • They do (perhaps differently) • False Alarms: • Can be productive for future response “if explained” • Anger local governments because they cost money • Exception: • People ignore sirens, especially if sounded frequently, e.g., for siren tests

31. TOPIC 4: ALERT • STOP Ongoing Life • Get People’s ATTENTION • CAPTURE Your Audience • But Keep in Mind that….

32. PEOPLE DON’T REMEMBER INDICATORS • People: • Don’t remember meaning of: • Siren signals (wails, whoops, tones) • Color codes • Don’t distinguish between: • Advisories, watches & warnings • Except: • When signals/codes are “drilled into them”, e.g., weekly fire drills in schools

33. ALERTING ISN’T SIMPLE • Many Isolate “Themselves” from Information • Some are isolated by circumstance, e.g., poor • And Even when Signals Blare, Many: • Think they’re “safe” & • Disasters happen to other people • Some Sub-populations Need Unique Alerts, e.g., • Hospitals in communities • Hearing impaired in buildings • Visitors & “out-of-towners” • Different language speakers

34. USE “OBTRUSIVE” ALERTS • Get People’s Attention, e.g., • “Lights on” in theaters • Piercing sounds with TV crawlers • Wake People Up, e.g., • Sleeping children & older adults • Hearing loss & under the influence • Outside Devices Loose Effectiveness if: • Windows shut & air/heat is on • 3 minute sounding 10 decibels over ambient outdoor siren has a 62% chance of waking someone up • Need Indoor Devices for Alert at Night: • Fast moving community event • Fire in a hotel

35. INFORMAL ALERTING • Warning Diffusion “Among those Warned” • Always happens, count on it, & use it • 9/11 Example: • Most in country learned about attack in 1 hour • Many in towers found out a plane hit from friends/relatives • Rule of Thumb: • 1 informal first warning for every 2 formal first warnings • Informal Alerting Increasing with New Technologies

36. TOPIC 5: DIFFUSION • Diffusion = Getting the Word Out • A social process regardless of technology used • No “SILVER BULLET” Technology: • Different technologies = different effectiveness • USE ALL OF THEM (relying on one won’t work) • Reach sub-populations in different ways: • And using diverse technologies (channels) helps “confirm” the message which facilitates human response • Effectiveness impacted by time of day/night

37. DIFFUSSION DATAEXAMPLE 0.1

38. TOPIC 6: MOBILIZATION • Time between 1st Warning & Starting a Protective Action • People don’t all act at once • Getting ready to respond delays response • People Delay in Order to: • Locate family & gather possessions • Confirm warning & need to take action • Talk things over with others • And a Few People Don’t Respond at All

39. A VIEW OF MOBILIZATION • Can Vary By: • Urgency of event • Severity of threat • Time of day/night • Time increases as message quality decreases • Non-linear (curved) Relationship between Time & Starting a Protective Action: • Typically an “S” shaped relationship • Here’s an example....

40. HURRICANE FLOYD DEPARTURE TIMES

41. TOPIC 7: NOTIFICATION, MESSAGING & PUBLIC RESPONSE

42. PREDICTING PUBLIC BEHAVIOR • Predictions Based on SCIENCE Work: • “A” causes “B” • Predictions Based on NON-SCIENCE Don’t: • What people did in past events: • Using a past “B” to predict a future “B” • Behavioral intention surveys: • Intentions (opinions) & behavior (actions) are different • Key determinants of public warning response don’t operate in pre-event surveys & aren’t known by respondents

43. FACTORS THAT IMPACT PUBLIC RESPONSE • Many “Statistically Significant” Factors Documented by Research but…. • They Vary in Importance: • Strong vs. weak relationships • Real vs. spurious effects • High vs. low research evidence • Strong Evidence Exists for What Follows

44. INFORMATION FACTORS “About the Warning Message”

45. FACTOR 1: THE MESSAGE • Five Dimensions: • Channel • Frequency • Content • Style • Source

46. FACTOR 1: THE MESSAGE(cont’d) • Number of Communication Channels: • The “more the better” • Type of Communication Channel: • Personal channels work best • The “more the better” • Communication Frequency: • The “more” its repeated & heard the better: • Repetition fosters confirmation • Confirmation fosters belief • Belief fosters taking action

47. FACTOR 1: THE MESSAGE(cont’d) • CONTENT (What to Say): • WHAT: Tell them what to do • WHEN: Tell them when (time) to do it • WHERE: Say who should & shouldn’t do it • WHY: Tell about the hazard’s consequences • WHO: Say who‘s talking (source): • There is NO single credible source, so use multiple sources for the same message

48. FACTOR 1: THE MESSAGE (cont’d) • STYLE (How to Say It): • CLEAR: Simply worded is best • SPECIFIC: Precise & non-ambiguous • ACCURATE: Errors cause problems • CERTAIN: Authoritative and confident • CONSISTENT: • Externally: Explain changes from past messages & differences from what others are saying • Internally: Never say “attack will occur soon, don’t worry”

49. FACTOR 2: CUES (Non-verbal Information) • Social Cues Help: • “Monkey see, monkey do” • What neighbors, friends, & relatives are doing • What organizations are doing • Physical Cues Help too: • If confirm the risk (rain in flood warnings)

50. SOME HAZARDS (fire) HAVE CUES SOME (radiation) DON’T