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NOAA Leadership Seminar PPBES Case Study: NOAA s Environmental Modeling Program

2. Outline. Program OverviewEMP and the PPBESWhere do we go from here?. 3. Forecasters Add Value. Models provide basis for improvement. . . Why NOAA Uses Models. 4. Key Roles Data Assimilation and Processing. 5. Program Overview Mission Requirements. Provide models, and model-based forecast guidance products which:Prevent injury, loss of life, and damage to the economy resulting from environmental conditions, Integrate science and environmental understanding and prediction capabilities acro1140

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NOAA Leadership Seminar PPBES Case Study: NOAA s Environmental Modeling Program

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    1. 1 NOAA Leadership Seminar PPBES Case Study: NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Program Fred Toepfer Environmental Modeling Program Manager & Deputy Director, NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

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    4. 4 Key Roles Data Assimilation and Processing

    5. 5 Program Overview Mission Requirements Provide models, and model-based forecast guidance products which: Prevent injury, loss of life, and damage to the economy resulting from environmental conditions, Integrate science and environmental understanding and prediction capabilities across NOAA mission goals, programs, and activities, Provide a disciplined, defensible basis for NOAA's Integrated Observing System Investment, Advance decision support services, aid forecasters, and educate stakeholders, Ensure the sustainable use of resources to balance competing uses of ecosystems, Improve the quantification, understanding, and predictability of climate change, Support sound decisions on aviation, marine, and surface navigation. Ensure that the outcome is linked to or supports a goal outcome and/or performance objective in the NOAA Strategic Plan (See the draft NOAA Strategic Plan at www.spo.noaa.gov)Ensure that the outcome is linked to or supports a goal outcome and/or performance objective in the NOAA Strategic Plan (See the draft NOAA Strategic Plan at www.spo.noaa.gov)

    6. 6 NOAA’s Four Mission Goals: Climate Mission Goal Programs Commerce and Transportation Mission Goal Programs Ecosystem Goal Programs Weather & Water Mission Goal Programs External: DTRA, AF & Navy, DOE, FAA, Other National Weather Services Academia Commercial Weather Services and other commercial interests Program Overview Customers EMP Steering Group (Key NOAA managers) Program activities and priorities Funding allocations to program activities, Program plans and annual objectives for Line Office annual operating plans Goal Team Leads Overall program funding Overall program objectives NOAA High Performance Computing Board Oversight of HPC Management Oversight of HPCC Asset Acquisition EMP Steering Group (Key NOAA managers) Program activities and priorities Funding allocations to program activities, Program plans and annual objectives for Line Office annual operating plans Goal Team Leads Overall program funding Overall program objectives NOAA High Performance Computing Board Oversight of HPC Management Oversight of HPCC Asset Acquisition

    7. 7 Environmental Modeling Program - Capabilities

    8. 8 The Environmental Forecast Process

    9. 9 Program Overview Outcome: An Integrated Environmental Modeling and Data Assimilation System that: Meets ALL of NOAA’s Needs From research to operations From estuary to ocean to weather prediction to climate change Is extensible to ecosystems as science matures Achieves quality consistent with the state-of-the-science and customer requirements – in cost-effective manner Supports the timely and reliable delivery of NOAA’s products and Services Provides a disciplined, defensible basis for NOAA’s Observing System Investment

    10. 10 Program Management EMP is a Matrix Program Oversight Responsibility – NWS Steering Group (Members designated by LO) NWS – Louis Uccellini – Director NCEP OAR – Ants Leetmaa – Director, GFDL NESDIS – Al Powell - Director, ORA) NOS – Marie Colton, - NOS Technical Director CIO, Carl Staton, - NOAA CIO Program Manager – Fred Toepfer

    11. 11 Key Team Members NWS Fred Toepfer - EMC Paul Dallavalle – MDL Will Shaffer – MDL Sreela Nandi – OS&T (new coordinator – part-time) NOS Mary Erickson - CSDL Frank Aikman – CSDL Mark Vincent – CO-OPS OAR Brian Gross – GFDL Stan Benjamin – ESRL GSD Alan Leonardi – OSS (prior part-time coordinator until May) NESDIS Jim Yoe - JCSDA Stan Wilson – NESDIS Senior Scientist NOAA OCIO Bill Turnbull – Deputy CIO Mike Kane

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    13. 13 Key NOAA Modeling Activities Earth System Modeling Development Long-term Climate Modeling Short-term Climate Modeling – Research Short-term Climate Modeling – Operations Ocean Modeling Modeling Technique Research and Development Transition & Implementation Modular Ocean Model (MOM) Transition & Implementation Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HyCOM) Real Time Ocean Forecast System - Atlantic Operations Ocean Data Assimilation - Wave Modeling Land Modeling Coastal and Estuary Tide and Current Modeling Storm Surge Modeling

    14. 14 Key NOAA Modeling Activities Atmospheric Modeling Global Model Research & Development Global Forecast System Operations Global Modeling (Ensembles) North American Ensemble Forecast System – NOAA & Canadians (Navy Future) Mesoscale Modeling North American Model Rapid Refresh Model Short Range Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane Model Fire Weather – EMC Post Processing

    15. 15 Program Activities Computing Operations and Management Operational Computing Acquisition and Management R&D Computing Acquisition and Management R&D Computing (Management Integration) NOAA HPC Computing (Oversight Communications Infrastructure Operational Computing NOAA R&D Computing Communication NOAA Operations - Internet 2 Access Computing Infrastructure Advanced Computing Technique Development ESMF Advanced Computing Techniques

    16. 16 Program Activities Data Assimilation System Development Atmospheric Data Assimilation System Land Data Assimilation Ocean Data Assimilation Data Assimilation Technique Development Satellite Radar Land Advanced Technique Development (not data or instrument specific) Observing System Studies

    17. 17 Program Activities Proposed Future Ecosystem Forecasting Ecosystem Model Integration (Physical & Biological) Joint With Ecosystems Transition to operations Operations Space Weather Forecasting Transition to Operations Operations

    18. 18 Program Performance Metrics

    19. 19 EMP Gaps/Alternatives Goal Objectives Supported

    20. 20 Environmental Modeling Program & Program Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Execution

    21. 21 Environmental Modeling Multi-dimensional Matrix Provides a Core NOAA Mission Capability - Analyses and Prediction A challenge and a strength of the program is its breadth Includes multiple Line Offices and Organizational Units (diff cultures) Serving all four Mission Goals Several disciplines; atmosphere, water, climate Long and short time scales: from hours to decades Crosses Research, Development, Operations (different cultures)

    22. 22 Progress in the Matrix Building pathways for communication and trust across the matrix (NOAA) Takes time and effort Is essential to innovative and corporate thinking Getting Buy-In Use of a Steering Committee to involve science experts and managers in program decisions Articulating critical issues and strategies to address them To Senior Managers To the Team

    23. 23 Making Progress Integrated Planning Cross Organization Cross Discipline Integrated Capabilities Core Technologies Supporting Multiple Missions Data Assimilation and Analysis Global Prediction (the Earth System Model) Enables Mission-Unique Extensions Ecosystem Forecasting begins with an Integrated Multi-time Scale Physical Ocean Model

    24. 24 On-going Program Management Initiatives Weather Research Model (WRF) Program Implementation Inter-Agency Agreement WRF Develop Test Center Partnership Integrated Ocean Observing System - Modeling and Analysis Sub-system Definition Tri-Agency (Navy, NOAA, Air Force) Development of the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Navy-NOAA Partnership for Operational Ocean Modeling Next-Generation Global Modeling System and Earth System Model NOAA High Performance Computing NOAA Administrative Order (NAO) Implementation Integrated Planning with Ecosystem Goal toward an “operational” Ecosystem Forecast System

    25. 25 Successes? R&D HPC – Acquisition and Management HPC Board NOAA Ownership of Assets Enhanced Partnerships with other Agencies More poised to articulate NOAA’s goals and gaps – Speak with One-voice Bring stronger group to discussions Program Manager: Having a “face” for NOAA’s Modeling Sort through territorial games Represents Program to Senior Management Provides program management leadership

    26. 26 Where we want to go The world’s best Earth System Forecast is a NOAA-led National Effort Elevate NOAA’s National Computing Posture Elevate Environmental Modeling to a Cross-goal Enabling Program Improving NOAA’s Mission Capabilities Requires Improving Models Need to re-look at NOAA’s investment portfolio between Observations, Computing, and Modeling to Maximize Return on the Total Investment

    27. 27 Back-ups

    28. 28 WRF Management Multi-agency (NOAA, AF, Navy?, NSF, FAA) Memorandum of Agreement for management and evolution of WRF Program Empowers Program Manager and Steering Group Guides Evolution of WRF Model Joint Project Agreement for WRF DTC Defines scope, authority, and functions of WRF DTC Defines funding requirements, sources, and priorities Funding source identified for FY2007 Fy2009 initiative to get WRF DTC in NOAA budget as a line item

    29. 29 IOOS Modeling and Analysis Working with IOOS project management and Goal lead to define NOAA-related IOOS and Modeling 2 page preliminary draft white-paper prepared describing intersection of IOOS modeling and analysis and NOAA EMP All IOOS M&A not in NOAA Some Ocean and Coastal Ocean Model Development All NOAA IOOS-related Modeling not in EMP Ecosystem Modeling Research Ecosystem Modeling Development

    30. 30 EMP Proposed NOAA IOOS M&A Global Ocean Physical Ocean Observing, Analysis, and Prediction System Back-bone Coast and coastal ocean physical modeling back-bone extensions Operational Ecosystem Forecasting Back-bone (built on above) Community Modeling Test-bed Observing System Evolution Capability to maximize return on NOAA and IOOS investments

    31. 31 Environmental Modeling Program & IOOS Modeling and Analysis NOAA funds and operates ocean and coastal ocean physical and ecosystem backbone model (including ODA) system to meet NOAA requirements: Climate Prediction and Projection Marine Transportation and Safety Global Weather and Hurricane Forecasting Ecosystem Management IOOS Focus: Integration of Modeling Activities (within NOAA and with IOOS Community Observing System Design Activities Outreach to broader IOOS Community RA and Community Test-bed Activities Extensions to support IOOS Societal Goals

    32. 32 National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Tri-agency (NOAA, Navy, AF) effort to integrate and leverage our individual investments in atmospheric modeling Directed at agency head level Tiger-team established to develop and analyze 3 alternatives for a NUOPC NOAA team includes Fred Toepfer, Julian Wang, Mark Iredell, Al Powell Recommendation due Dec 31, 2006. Initial step: define alternatives to be evaluated – August 9 and 10

    33. 33 NOAA-Navy Ocean Modeling Partnership Directed in NOAA response to SAB on ocean modeling – Ocean Modeling Action Plan Environmental Modeling Program action NOS Technical Director Lead OAR support and liaison: Julian Wang Status review in preparation for AA’s and DUS

    34. 34 Global Modeling Purpose: Integrate NOAA’s Global Modeling efforts Environmental Modeling Workshop held January, 2006 5 Areas identified for further development - Strategic Plan and management Infrastructure Research and Development Agenda Test-beds Communication Follow-up being scheduled for this fall

    35. 35 Environmental Modeling HPC Responsibilities SECTION 3. POLICY. .02 The NOAA Environmental Modeling Program (EMP) will manage NOAA’s HPC through an HPC Board to meet NOAA’s goals and subgoals. SECTION 4. RESPONSIBILITIES. .01 The Environmental Modeling Program Manager and the NOAA Chief Information Officer (CIO) are responsible for implementing this Order. .02 The CIO, or a designee (subject to the concurrence of the EMP Program Manager), will chair the HPC Board.

    36. 36 Environmental Modeling HPC Responsibilities SECTION 4. RESPONSIBILITIES. (cont.) .03 The Environmental Modeling Program will: establish and appoint the HPC Board; provide prioritized and funded requirements to the HPC Board; have oversight to ensure that HPC has been used in accordance with NOAA’s goals and subgoals and priorities; promote and support the use of HPC to non-traditional HPC users across NOAA; work with the affected Mission Goal Leads, with the support of the HPC Board, to satisfy Mission Goal requirements that are identified outside the scope of the EMP; and ensure that additional cost associated with requirements emanating from programs other than EMP shall be funded by the program to which the requirements are attributable.

    37. 37 HPC Management Proposed Actions HPC Board working to develop and implement R&D HPC integrated management policy and procedures Environmental Modeling Program SG will meet Review/Approve charter & Membership of reconstituted HPC Board Establish R&D Computing Allocation Board Establish initial FY2007 allocations and priorities (Funded Requirements) Agree to Project Managers Quarterly Review to ensure FY2007 activities and milestones adequately supported; readjust allocations and priorities as required Review allocation with Goal and sub-Goal Leads

    38. 38 Proposed R&D HPC Projects for FY2007 Advanced Data Assimilation Research and Development Climate Test Bed ESMF and Software infrastructure Development High Performance Computing Grants to NOAA Labs Hydro-meteorological Test Bed Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Long-term Climate Model Research & Development Long-term Climate Scenario Generation Long-term Climate Scenario Analysis Next generation Global Atmospheric Model Research and Development Next-generation ocean model research and development Observing System Research and Development Re-forecasting Research and Development Global Reanalysis Regional Reanalysis Seasonal Climate Modeling Research and Development Seasonal Climate Model Calibration WRF Rapid Refresh Research and Development WRF DTC WRF DTC Computing Grants

    39. 39 EMP Gaps by Capability

    40. 40 EMP Priorities Aligned With AGM Hurricane Intensity (w/DTC) IOOS Ocean Modeling, ODA, Community Modeling Test-bed, and IOOS Observing System Evolution Ecosystem Forecasting Accelerate NWP Guidance Forecast Uncertainty

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