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NOAA Interest in EPIC

NOAA Interest in EPIC. The NOAA Commitment Improving NOAA’s Climate Forecast System Mechanisms for Integration (CPTs, CTB) Proposal Opportunities Workshop Outcomes. Mike Patterson NOAA Office of Global Programs.

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NOAA Interest in EPIC

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  1. NOAA Interest in EPIC • The NOAA Commitment • Improving NOAA’s Climate Forecast System • Mechanisms for Integration (CPTs, CTB) • Proposal Opportunities • Workshop Outcomes Mike Patterson NOAA Office of Global Programs EPIC Workshop May 11-13, 2005 Seattle, Washington

  2. NOAA’s Commitment NOAA’s investment in EPIC is motivated by the agency’s goal to improve operational intraseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction (and longer range climate change projections). Since 1999, NOAA OGP has invested over $10 million in EPIC enhanced monitoring, field work, data set development, diagnostic analysis and process modeling. Now poised to support synthesis activities to link understanding gained in EPIC to improve models, particularly those used for operational predictions and projections at NCEP and GFDL. The FY 2006 Announcement of Opportunity maintains our commitment to support analysis and synthesis for at least five years after the field phase.

  3. NSF/NOAA-Sponsored Climate Process Team onAtmospheric Deep Convection • Dedicated cross-cutting group including • parameterization developers from GFDL, NCAR, NCEP and • process scientists, many of whom participated in EPIC • Global modelers identify critical problems related to convection (e.g. split ITCZ, cloud-radiation feedback, diurnal cycle) and set 3-year goals • Possible extension to five years; no new starts for now • Additional CPT-like activities?

  4. Overview ofNCEP’s CFS for S/I Climate Prediction System Components: • T62/64-layer version of the current NCEP atmospheric GFS (Global Forecast System) model • GFDL Modular Ocean Model, version 3 (MOM-3) • Global Ocean Data Assimilation (GODAS) • Direct coupling (no flux correction) Seasonal hindcasts completed and available for analysis (GFDL is also preparing hindcast runs)

  5. Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04 Improvement over the old CMP14 and comparable with statistical prediction

  6. But Biases Persist… The CFS still has large SST errors in the extratropics and eastern Pacific

  7. The NOAA Climate Test Bed • NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Office of Global Programs jointly initiated the NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility in FY 2005. • The goal of the CTB is to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved operational climate forecasts, products and applications. • The CTB will provide an operational testing environment to support short term (up to three years) competitive applied research and development projects that will result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations, to be carried out jointly by scientists from operational centers and the broader research community. Visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/ for details

  8. CTB Implementation • Announcements (through CDEP) inviting non-NCEP scientists to propose 3-year Test Bed projects • One third of NCEP research computer available for Test Bed experiments • NCEP scientists dedicated to and available for collaboration on Test Bed projects • System support teams to facilitate use of CFS and the NCEP computer • Visiting Scientist Program administered by NCEP

  9. NOAA Proposal Opportunities for EPIC Synthesis CPPA • Improve understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the eastern tropical Pacific and advance seasonal-to-interannual predictions of this region and the remote regions influenced by its variability • Improve the characterization of ocean, atmosphere and coupled processes in the eastern Pacific as represented in models used by NOAA for operational intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and climate change projections CDEP • Initiate a few pilot CTB competitive transition projects expected to influence NOAA climate forecast operations in two to three years • Test the potential impact on operations in an operational environment • Participate in the CTB visiting scientist program (via NCEP starting in FY07)

  10. Priority Workshop Outcomes • Increased and sustained interaction among process researchers and coupled model developers • Updated set of research result highlights to demonstrate progress to date • Roadmap for improving coupled climate models to guide agency planning and engage broad community • Evaluation of progress on and plans for completing a synthesis EPIC data set for use in model testing • Confirming plan for long-term maintenance of EPIC data holdings

  11. Climate Community Climate Test Bed NOAA Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations The NOAA Climate Test Bed The Testbed can be used as a venue to test model improvement and associated forecast applications

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