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Make Wise Decisions by Seeing the Truth

Want to make wise decisions? You need to see the truth first! This workshop combines academic research and stories from people’s everyday lives with exercises to help you learn easy-to-use strategies on how to use rational thinking and emotional intelligence to assess reality and make wise decisions to get what you want. Here are the slides: http://bit.ly/1KtTI4H

Intentional
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Make Wise Decisions by Seeing the Truth

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  1. Make Wise Decisions bySeeing the Truth Gleb Tsipursky, PhD

  2. Going with your gut?

  3. How does our mind work?

  4. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional • Autopilot

  5. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Conscious Mindful Slow Reasoning Logical • Autopilot • Subconscious • Automatic • Fast • Intuitive • Emotional

  6. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Choosing to pay attention Our sense of Self • Autopilot • Automatic thoughts & feelings • Subconscious beliefs & assumptions • Habits

  7. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Elephant Rider • Autopilot • Elephant

  8. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Uses a lot of energy Runs in low-effort mode • Autopilot • Uses little energy • Runs all the time

  9. How does our mind work? System 2 is activatedwhen… • System 1 runs into difficulty • Learning new information • Awareness of potential for error

  10. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Can prevent System 1 errors Needs to be activated first Requires intentional focus • Autopilot • Usually makes good decisions • Errors are often predictable: • emotional issues • assessing probabilities

  11. strategies • Use this knowledge to our advantage! • Find ways to activate System 2 when we need it most • Train the elephant rider • Make changes to System 1 • Train the elephant

  12. Predictable Errors • Why did THEY do it? • Why did YOU do it? • Fundamental Attribution Error • We tend to interpret the actions of others more harshly than our own. • We tend to judge the personality of others based on very limited information.

  13. Predictable Errors • Should we always pay attention? • Attentional Bias • We tend to pay attention to factors that appeal to our emotions (especially negative emotions).

  14. strategies • Broad Framework: Gaining Agency • Evaluating ourselves and our environment • Developing long-term goals • Implementing effective strategies to reach our goals • Continuously reassessing our strategies and goals

  15. strategies • The Map and the Territory • Our “map” of the world doesn’t fully reflect reality. • We can focus on improving our “map” to make it more accurate.

  16. strategies • I Notice I’m Confused • I Notice I’m Surprised • Become aware of when you feel confused or surprised. • Your “map” probably does not match the reality of the situation.

  17. strategies • Bad News is Good News • If something bad already happened, it’s better to know about it. • When you know what went wrong, you can find a way to address the situation or prevent it from happening in the future.

  18. strategies • Updating Beliefs • If we discover that we are confused or surprised, or that we made a mistake, it’s important to update our beliefs about a situation. • Be a flip-flopper!It can prevent you from making mistakes.

  19. strategies • Experimental Attitude • Update your “map” and update your beliefs. • Conduct thought experiments (or actual experiments) to learn about the world.

  20. Remembering and applying strategies • Make an intentional decision to apply these strategies • Make reminders to yourself to use these strategies • Train subconscious System 1 to embrace using these strategies through positive reinforcement • Speak the language of System 1: emotions • Associate positive thoughts and emotions with every time you use the strategies successfully

  21. resources • Center for Applied Rationality • www.cfar.org • Columbus Rationality Facebook group • http://ow.ly/vfBdO • Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality • www.hpmor.com • Less Wrong • www.lesswrong.com

  22. Intentional Decision MakingMaking Decisions to Reach Your Goals Agnes Vishnevkin, MBA

  23. decisions • How do we make them? • What tools can we use • to do better?

  24. MAKING DECISIONS • Past • What happened? • How did you think and feel about it? • Future • What do you want? • Experiment with different futures • Present • Make decisions to move toward Future

  25. MAKING DECISIONS • What is a good decision? • Depends on how decision was made • Use probability to make better decision

  26. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional • Autopilot

  27. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Conscious Mindful Slow Reasoning Logical • Autopilot • Subconscious • Automatic • Fast • Intuitive • Emotional

  28. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Choosing to pay attention Our sense of Self • Autopilot • Automatic thoughts & feelings • Subconscious beliefs & assumptions • Habits

  29. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Elephant Rider • Autopilot • Elephant

  30. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Uses a lot of energy Runs in low-effort mode • Autopilot • Uses little energy • Runs all the time

  31. How does our mind work? System 2 is activatedwhen… • System 1 runs into difficulty • Learning new information • Awareness of potential for error

  32. How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Can prevent System 1 errors Needs to be activated first Requires intentional focus • Autopilot • Usually makes good decisions • Errors are often predictable: • emotional issues • assessing probabilities

  33. Predictable Errors • Wishful thinking. • Planning Fallacy • We intuitively assume that everything will go perfectly according to plan. • We often don’t plan for extra time and resources to be prepared for possibility of unforeseen events.

  34. Predictable Errors • Throwing good money after bad. • Sunk Cost Fallacy • If we invested a lot into getting something, we tend to be reluctant to give it up.

  35. Predictable Errors • Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may die. • Hyperbolic Discounting • We tend to prefer smaller payoffs now over larger payoffs later.

  36. strategies • Focus on Your Long-Term Goals • Reframe Your Perspective • Ask Why? Ask Why Not? • Outside perspective • Be self-aware

  37. strategies • Future Scenario method • Think of what “might” happen in the future • How likely or unlikely are these possibilities? • Focus on undesirable outcomes • What might cause them? • How can you prepare?

  38. resources • Intentional Insights • www.intentionalinsights.org • Center for Applied Rationality • www.cfar.org • Columbus Rationality Facebook group • http://ow.ly/vfBdO • Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality • www.hpmor.com • Less Wrong • www.lesswrong.com

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