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Want to make the best decisions to reach your goals? These slides from this videotaped workshop (http://bit.ly/1LJ1zM4) Please have a look at slides to know more.
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Intentional Decision MakingMaking Decisions to Reach Your Goals Agnes Vishnevkin, MBA
decisions • How do we make them? • What tools can we use • to do better?
MAKING DECISIONS • Past • What happened? • How did you think and feel about it? • Future • What do you want? • Experiment with different futures • Present • Make decisions to move toward Future
MAKING DECISIONS • What is a good decision? • Depends on how decision was made • Use probability to make better decision
How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional • Autopilot
How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Conscious Mindful Slow Reasoning Logical • Autopilot • Subconscious • Automatic • Fast • Intuitive • Emotional
How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Choosing to pay attention Our sense of Self • Autopilot • Automatic thoughts & feelings • Subconscious beliefs & assumptions • Habits
How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Elephant Rider • Autopilot • Elephant
How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Uses a lot of energy Runs in low-effort mode • Autopilot • Uses little energy • Runs all the time
How does our mind work? System 2 is activatedwhen… • System 1 runs into difficulty • Learning new information • Awareness of potential for error
How does our mind work? System 1 System 2 Intentional Can prevent System 1 errors Needs to be activated first Requires intentional focus • Autopilot • Usually makes good decisions • Errors are often predictable: • emotional issues • assessing probabilities
Predictable Errors • Wishful thinking. • Planning Fallacy • We intuitively assume that everything will go perfectly according to plan. • We often don’t plan for extra time and resources to be prepared for possibility of unforeseen events.
Predictable Errors • Throwing good money after bad. • Sunk Cost Fallacy • If we invested a lot into getting something, we tend to be reluctant to give it up.
Predictable Errors • Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may die. • Hyperbolic Discounting • We tend to prefer smaller payoffs now over larger payoffs later.
strategies • Focus on Your Long-Term Goals • Reframe Your Perspective • Ask Why? Ask Why Not? • Outside perspective • Be self-aware
strategies • Future Scenario method • Think of what “might” happen in the future • How likely or unlikely are these possibilities? • Focus on undesirable outcomes • What might cause them? • How can you prepare?
resources • Center for Applied Rationality • www.cfar.org • Columbus Rationality Facebook group • http://ow.ly/vfBdO • Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality • www.hpmor.com • Less Wrong • www.lesswrong.com