Review of Rural Highway Traffic Counts Can the Trans-Texas Corridor be Justified?

1. Review of Rural Highway Traffic CountsCan the Trans-Texas Corridor be Justified? By Erik Slotboom Toll & Corridor Summit Meeting November 13, 2004

2. Also by Erik Slotboom FireRicWilliamson.com HoustonFreeways.com Founded by Erik Slotboom: TexasFreeway.com

3. Trans-Texas Corridor Overall Conclusions • Only one corridor may justify a relief route:I-35, San Antonio to Hillsboro • Existing Interstates are adequate in all other cases • Some sections of existing Interstates will need a 3rd lane in each direction by 2034 • Trans-Texas corridor cannot be justified

4. How much traffic can existing Interstates handle? Approximate

5. Typical 4-lane Rural Interstate Interstate 35W South of Fort Worth

6. Typical 4 lane InterstateHow much traffic can it carry? • A 4-lane freeway can serve > 100,000 vehicles/daywith reduced service

7. Typical 6-lane Interstate I-35 North of New Braunfels

9. Typical 6 lane InterstateHow much traffic can it carry? • A 6-lane freeway can serve > 200,000 vehicles/daywith reduced service

10. Implied Tran-Texas Corridor Traffic

11. What kind of traffic counts do we have in 2003? Is it anywhere approaching Trans-Texas capacity?

12. 2003 traffic data Source: TxDOT

13. Existing traffic volumes are easily handled by existing 4-lane InterstatesWill traffic grow to Trans-Texas proportions?

14. Interstate 10Houston to San Antonio 2003 Traffic Data

16. Interstate 45Houston to Dallas 2003 traffic data

18. Interstate 35San Antonio to Laredo“NAFTA Corridor” • There has not been a NAFTA traffic boom • Traffic counts stagnant since 2000 2003 traffic data

19. Strong growth in 1990s • Stagnant since 1999 • Traffic Count still very low NAFTA Influence

21. Interstate 69 Corridor • Can it justify a Trans-Texas corridor? NO. A conventional 4-lane interstate will serve traffic needs 6-lane sections needed approaching Houston

22. 2003 traffic data

24. Interstate 35San Antonio to Hillsboro • The only corridor that could possibly justify something resembling a Trans-Texas corridor • Original TxDOT plan:widen existing facility to 6 (rural) and 8 (urban) lanes

25. I-35 2004 Status • 4-lane sections south of Hillsboro need added lane in each direction immediately • Expansion on hold pending Trans-Texas plan 2003 traffic data

29. Financial Case Study • What if we build a Trans Texas Corridor from Georgetown to Hillsboro?This is the only corridor section that has a remote chance of being viable

30. How Much Would It Cost? Compare to SH 130, Austin to Georgetown: 6 lanes, 102 miles Assume a minimal Trans-Texas corridor, 4 highway lanes only but on a wide corridor

31. How Much Traffic Will Use It? Compare to Hardy Toll Road / I-45 Corridor in Houston to determine I-35 / Trans-Texas split • Interstate 45 north in Houston is one of the most heavily loaded freeways in the United States (per lane-mile)

33. Conclusion • Toll road traffic has been consistent at 15% of corridor traffic in spite of severe congestion on I-45 • Motorists will endure severe congestion to avoid tolls

34. Analysis Assumption • Toll percent of corridor traffic stays low until I-35 is severely congested

35. Other Assumptions • No capacity improvements to I-35;4-lane sections remain 4 lanes forever • $10 toll Georgetown-Hillsboro ($.09/mile)increasing at 3% per year • 10% corridor traffic increase after 20 years due to induced demand • Assume 4.5% interest, 40 year term on $2.75 billion in bonds. Annual Payment: $149 million

38. Financial Shortfall • About 25 years of subsidy required Where will the money come from?

39. Toll Interstate 35!

41. Conclusion • Tolling existing rural interstates is the only way to make any Trans-Texas corridor viable • Bribe rural counties with a cut of the money to defuse rural opposition

42. Other Financial Risks • High gasoline cost – lower traffic counts • Faulty assumptions (eg NAFTA) • Lower than forecast population growth • Predominantly Hispanic population • Hispanic regions most anti-toll • Lower income groups can’t afford tolls

43. Slower Population Growth? Dallas Morning News, October 4, 2004

44. NAFTA: what happened? 1990s assumption: future traffic boom 2000s reality: Everything is being made in China Result: Flat traffic volume to Mexico

45. Alameda Corridor in Los AngelesPaying the Price for Faulty Assumptions • $2.5 billion spent on rail lineNow it is grossly underutilized “In the nearly two decades it took to plan and build the corridor, the shipping business changed so dramatically that the economic assumptions underpinning the project became obsolete.” L.A. Times, August 22, 2004

46. A Better Way to Meet Our Needs • Add extra lanes to existing interstates as needed • Rebuilding a 4-lane interstate to a 6-lane interstate costs about $10 million per mile, half the cost of a Trans-Texas corridor

47. Actual needs in the next 30 years Can be doneWITHOUT TOLLS

48. The Engineer Says Traffic counts can’t even remotely justify Trans-Texas Corridor The Financial Analyst Says Tolling will only pay a tiny fraction of the cost for decades The Concerned Texan Worries about steep tolls on existing Interstates to pay for it

49. Trans-Texas Corridor