Transforming Wind Powering America for the next decade

1. Transforming Wind PoweringAmerica for the next decade Larry Flowers, NREL

2. 2 2008 Was a Banner Year for Wind 9,500 MW installed in the US in the 12 month period from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2009 Investment in wind projects in US grew from $700M in 2004 to $17B in 2008 ($48B worldwide) US surpassed Germany as the world leader in new installations, total wind capacity and annual output 35,000 jobs were added in wind industry in 2008, raising total to 85,000, compared to 82,000 for the coal industry (EIA).

3. 3 2009 Shaping Up But New Turbine Orders and PPAs Lagging With the OPEC oil embargo as backdrop, the modern wind industry got its start in the U.S. in the 1970s. The Federal renewable energy research program was launched in 1974, one year after the embargo, and AWEA was incorporated in the same year. Federal and State investment tax credits drove a flurry of activity in the early 1980s that would recede late in the decade due to massive cuts in government funding. The average turbine size in the 1980s was 100 kW; and power cost more than 30 cents/kWh due to mechanical difficulties and low equipment availability rates. The first federal production tax credit (PTC) was passed in the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) to expire for the first time in mid-1999. The early 2000s were characterized by a roller coaster of annual installations as the PTC was allowed to lapse, then extended, three times. The industry has now enjoyed four years of record growth due to relatively stable policy support. 2009 is not expected to see growth as strong as in 2008, but with the federal policies recently enacted, the industry will likely install at least 5,000 MW of new capacity and return faster than it otherwise would have to a trajectory of rapid expansion. With the OPEC oil embargo as backdrop, the modern wind industry got its start in the U.S. in the 1970s. The Federal renewable energy research program was launched in 1974, one year after the embargo, and AWEA was incorporated in the same year. Federal and State investment tax credits drove a flurry of activity in the early 1980s that would recede late in the decade due to massive cuts in government funding. The average turbine size in the 1980s was 100 kW; and power cost more than 30 cents/kWh due to mechanical difficulties and low equipment availability rates. The first federal production tax credit (PTC) was passed in the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) to expire for the first time in mid-1999. The early 2000s were characterized by a roller coaster of annual installations as the PTC was allowed to lapse, then extended, three times. The industry has now enjoyed four years of record growth due to relatively stable policy support. 2009 is not expected to see growth as strong as in 2008, but with the federal policies recently enacted, the industry will likely install at least 5,000 MW of new capacity and return faster than it otherwise would have to a trajectory of rapid expansion.

4. 10 States now in Gigawatt Club 4

5. Wind Power in Queues (MW) From data for five largest queues as of March 2009, data for next 8 queues as of end of 2008, data for smaller utilities as of September 2009 Queues for smaller utilities excluded From data for five largest queues as of March 2009, data for next 8 queues as of end of 2008, data for smaller utilities as of September 2009 Queues for smaller utilities excluded

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7. Average Non-GHG Damage from Coal Power in 2005 = 3.2 cents/kWh 7

8. What does 20% Wind look likein the next decade? 87% land-based, 13% shallow offshore Immediate response to assumed RPS implementation in 2008. - annual installation rate climbs rapidly then levels off at about 15 GW/yr 87% land-based, 13% shallow offshore Immediate response to assumed RPS implementation in 2008. - annual installation rate climbs rapidly then levels off at about 15 GW/yr

10. 20% Strategy Stakeholders MeetingNovember 2008, Washington DCMarket Development and Public Policies Breakout Engaging stakeholders effectively would require analyses and studies tailored to different markets, stakeholder groups, and interested parties There are diverse, effective policy options on state and federal levels that would lead to a scale-up of wind deployments The U.S. Department of Energy should continue sponsoring programs and groups that provide reasonable and accurate technical information relating to wind energy Rigorous comparative energy supply information, analysis, and the resources to disseminate this information is needed Power marketing administrations offer a significant opportunity to jump-start progress toward a 20% scale-up

11. 20% Strategy Stakeholders MeetingNovember 2008, Washington DCMarket Development and Public Policies Breakout Establish near-term green power preferences for federal power marketing administration supplemental power purchases Develop broad and robust educational programs for K-12, universities, community colleges, tribes, etc. Gather a more detailed understanding of stakeholders interests and perceptions to tailor specific messages and dissemination strategies Analyze and compare costs and benefits of wind and other electricity sources Expand and maintain a pool of technical, financial, and policy expertise to support state, local, and tribal efforts wanting to deploy wind

12. WPA Transformation in Education,Outreach, Siting & Policy (2010-2020)

13. Stakeholder Education/Outreach($10.5 M/yr) Expand, educate and equip the state wind working group network Expand regional stakeholder wind collaboratives to 9 regions by 2012 Conduct deliberative polls in 10 stuck states Develop validated 80-100m US wind map by 2013 Develop transmission acceptance best practices guide by 2012; launch state and regional outreach campaign Support community wind through economic, business model, and policy analyses Develop a cooperative G&T outreach/education campaign with NRECA, PMA�s and UWIG Collaborate with USDA and state land grant universities on state AG extension education and support network Develop an outreach effort to national ag, regulatory and county officials organizations, including organization-specific guidebooks Create an annual generation comparative assessment supplement to the LBL market report

14. Workforce Development/Education($3.3 M/yr) Expand wind for schools (including WAC�s) to 35 states by 2015 Create a wind energy summer study program for both the high school and university level Develop a national university collaborative on wind energy education

15. Federal/State Policy Nexus($5.3 M/yr) Develop offshore predevelopment outreach effort Re-invigorate the greening urban federal facilities campaign in collaboration with local NGO�s and universities Fully engage with the expanding wildlife interaction research community Enhance the TA to Indian Country Develop comprehensive TA to and education of federal lands permitting officials Form air-energy collaborative to bridge the air regulatory and energy officials gap, including wind SEPs opportunities Expand the analysis, dialogue and education of the wind/water nexus Form Interagency Siting Work Group; land use, radar, wildlife, transmission, permitting Expand federal agency wind WFO effort

16. WPA Critical Issues/Questions

17. State Maturity Index

18. Mid Atlantic Region Situation

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20. Mid Atlantic WPA Possibilities First project support: MD, NC, VA Offshore outreach and collaboration (incl. DE & NJ) Ridge development best practices/outreach (FOA�s) Community wind outreach and TA support (REAP$) Education sector development (SEPs?) Deliberative polls: MD, NC, VA (ARRA $$?) Annual state wind conferences (ARC?) Regulatory, legislative, commisioner and ag briefings ARC leverage