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Numerical Weather Prediction at MeteoSwiss

Numerical Weather Prediction at MeteoSwiss. 29th EWGLAM meeting. 8th of October 2007. Preoperational chain COSMO. COSMO-7 at 6.6km resolution. COSMO-2 at 2.2km resolution .

Jimmy
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Numerical Weather Prediction at MeteoSwiss

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  1. Numerical Weather Predictionat MeteoSwiss 29th EWGLAM meeting 8th of October 2007

  2. Preoperational chain COSMO COSMO-7 at 6.6km resolution COSMO-2 at 2.2km resolution Mesh sizes: 3/50° ~ 6.6km 1/50° ~ 2.2kmMaximum height 3122m 3950mDomains: 393x338x60 = 7'970'040 GP 520x350x60 = 10’920’000 GPBoundary conditions every 3h from IFS/ECMWF hourly from COSMO-7 Forecasts 2 x 72h forecasts per day 8 x 24h forecasts per day (every 3h) Initial conditions nudging to observations same, use of radar (latent heat nudging) Pre-operationalnow(operational beginning of 2008) 390 Gflops sustained (816 processors; 9% of peak) on CrayXT4 at CSCS, Manno

  3. poor good Fuzzy verification for high resolution precipitation Fuzzy scores provide a wealth of information, but • the results seems to be contrasting • their interpretation is sometimes difficult • contain too many numbers

  4. Evaluation of the fuzzy scores Application Testbed

  5. A Fuzzy Verification testbed Virtual truth (Radar data, model data, synthetic field) Fuzzy Verification Toolbox Perturbation Generator Realizations of virtual erroneousmodel forecasts Analyzer Realizations ofverification results • Assessment of • sensitivity (mean) • [reliability (STD)] • Two ingredients: • Reference fields, e.g. radar derived rain fields, • Perturbations: Result: Evaluation of the scores

  6. Warning of extreme eventsusing calibrated COSMO-LEPS products 30 years reforecasts 1 deterministic run calibrate with climatology

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