The 2008 Presidential Election and Trends in Opinions on Education

1. The 2008 Presidential Election and Trends in Opinions on Education Annual Conference Celinda Lake 202.776.9066 | www.lakeresearch.com | November 16, 2008

2. Presentation Overview • In the 2008 election, voters voted overwhelmingly for change. Voters were pessimistic about the direction of the country and saw Barack Obama as the one who could turn things around. The issue agenda was dominated by the economy, though other issues like health care and education relate to the economy. • Americans have been dissatisfied with education throughout the Bush presidency and believe Bush has either made no difference or even made things worse. Obama starts off with a strong advantage on education, but Americans are looking for more action at the state or local level. • Voters are worried about the direction of schools both nationally and at the local level. However, only half say they are personally involved in their local schools. With the national agenda dominated by other concerns, efforts at the state and community level are necessary to keep education policy moving forward. • Messaging on education issues has to be both positive and realistic. We need to acknowledge that there are problems but focus on ways to fix them and how individuals can make a real difference. Americans believe that EVERY child has the right to a quality education and that EVERY American has a role in making that right a reality. Education is a core value, not just an issue.

3. The 2008 Presidential Election

4. Even before all races have been called, the Democrats have solidified the majorities they won in 2006. *Races in Alaska and Minnesota are still too close to call. Georgia’s Senate seat will be decided in a runoff. **4 House races are still too close to call.

5. Three quarters of voters say the country is off on the wrong track. This is a strong indicator of a desire for change, something voters believe President-elect Obama can bring. Direction of the Country Yes: No: Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

6. Two thirds of voters who believe the country is off on the wrong track voted for Obama. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

7. Not surprisingly, Obama won change-oriented voters, but McCain had the advantage among those focused on experience and values. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

8. Already, Obama has changed the mood of the country for the better. More than two thirds of Americans are proud or optimistic about an Obama presidency. Source: Gallup Poll, Nov. 5, 2008, N=1,036 adults nationwide

9. Again, nearly three quarters of voters disapprove of Bush’s job performance. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

10. Obama overwhelmingly won the half of voters who strongly disapprove of Bush’s job performance, an indication that Bush’s poor ratings hurt McCain in his campaign. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

11. Congress’s job rating is almost as bad as the President’s, again with nearly three quarters saying they disapprove of the job being done. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

12. However, Democrats, as the party in power for the last two years, still only narrowly lost those who strongly disapprove of Congress and won a solid majority of all other voters. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

13. More than 10% of voters in this election were first time voters, and more than two thirds of those voters chose Obama. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

14. Issues

15. The economy dominated this election. The war in Iraq, which in many ways was the deciding factor in 2006, has faded to a distant second among votes this year. The prevalence of economic concerns pushed other key issues, like education, off the agenda in the last weeks of the election. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

16. Voters gave Obama the advantage on every top issue except terrorism. Obama’s support was especially strong among health care voters and those focused on the war in Iraq. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

17. Health care is the top personal concern to voters – even ahead of jobs and the rising costs of consumer goods. Additional concerns: government assistance (3% top/second concern), credit card debt (3%), nursing home care (1%). Source: Partnership for Chronic Disease, conducted by LRP and VCR, n=1,500 LVs, Oct. 5-9. 2008

18. Half of voters believe the state of the economy is poor, and Obama handily won these voters. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

19. Looking at the second most important issue to voters, voters who disapprove of the war voted overwhelmingly for Obama. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

20. Changing Coalitions

21. The gender gap narrowed slightly in this presidential election, with Obama winning both men and women. +13 +1 In 2004: Men: 44% Kerry; 54% Bush Women: 51% Kerry; 48% Bush Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

22. The marital status gap opened up wide in this election. McCain won married voters narrowly, but Obama won unmarried voters by more than 30 points. The gap was especially noticeable among unmarried women, who made up a fifth of the electorate. In 2004, unmarried women voted 55% for Kerry and 44% for Bush. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

23. McCain won white voters, voters of all other races and ethnicities supported Obama by wide margins. African Americans made up a larger percentage of the electorate than in 2004, and the Democratic margin among Latino voters quadrupled from what it was 4 years ago. African Americans as % of Voters: 2004: 11% 2008: 13% Latino voters in 2004: 53% Kerry 44% Bush Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

24. Young voters delivered for Obama. One in four Obama voters are under 30. They made up a record 18% of the electorate and were twice as likely to vote Obama than McCain. While in 2004, Kerry only won among young voters, Obama carried every age group except seniors. 18-29 year olds in 2004: 54% Kerry, 45% Bush Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

25. Democrats now enjoy a 7-point party identification advantage over Republicans, and Obama won a majority of independents as well. Since neither party has enough voters on its own to win, whoever wins independents carries the day. In 2004, Independents voted: 49% Kerry 48% Bush Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

26. This advantage for Democrats among independents carried over to Congressional races as well. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

27. While conservatives still outnumber liberals, there is now a large constituency of moderates who solidly supported Obama in this election. Whether America is really now “center-right”, “center-left”, or “center-center”, Obama was the stronger candidate. Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

28. Voters in cities and in the suburbs supported Obama, while rural voters preferred McCain. This is a change from recent elections where Republicans have carried suburban voters. In 2004, suburbanites voted: 47% Kerry 52% Bush Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

29. Regionally, Obama won in the East, Midwest, and the West, a region that is turning increasingly blue in recent elections. Republicans held the South, but by a narrower margin than in 2004. In 2004 56% Kerry 43% Bush 48% Kerry 51% Bush 42% Kerry 58% Bush 50% Kerry 49% Bush Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

30. Trends in Opinions on Education and Looking Forward to the Next Administration

31. Education in the Obama Administration • Throughout the campaign, Obama talked about the importance of parental involvement and responsibility in their children’s education,and it is reasonable to expect that will be a significant part of any plan from the Obama White House. • Obama also wants to renew commitment to Head Start programs and early childhood education. • In his acceptance speech, he spoke of renewing the American Dream and opening the doors of opportunity for our children, two goals that cannot be achieved without education.

32. While the economy dominates and education is not currently the most important problem to voters, they still give importance to the issue in their vote choice. Source: Gallup Poll

33. Americans have been net-dissatisfied with the quality of education in the U.S. for at least a decade. Source: Gallup Poll

34. Nearly three quarters of Americans believe Bush has made no difference or made things worse on education, despite his early intense efforts on No Child Left Behind. Source: Gallup Poll, July 6-8, 2007, N=1,006 Adults nationwide

35. The prestige of teachers remains high. Any reform efforts must take this into account and make them part of the solution. Source: Gallup Poll

36. Americans are increasingly in favor of reforming our current system, rather than seeking an alternative. Source: Gallup Poll

37. President-elect Obama has re-established a strong advantage for Democrats on the issue of education, and it remains to be seen what the new Democratically controlled federal government can do to improve the system. Source: Gallup Poll

38. Nearly two thirds of Americans want state leaders, not the federal government, to set national education standards. In our work since 9/11, we have found this is true for a few reasons. Voters thing the President has his hands full with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and fighting terrorism. With the increased focus on the economy, this may be even more true today. Source: Gallup Poll, June 14-July 3, 2008, N=1,006 Adults nationwide

39. Americans also want education leaders, not just any political leaders, to weigh in. Even input from business leaders is valued over that of politicians. Source: Gallup Poll, June 14-July 3, 2008, N=1,006 Adults nationwide

40. What This Means for Education Policy • In 2006, polling showed that education was tied with the war in Iraq as the top issue for voters. Today, education has dropped out of the top tier of issues. • Americans were not happy with Bush on education (after his early efforts), so Obama is already a change for the better. However, Americans are not looking for action from the federal level as much as from the state or local level. • Voters understand that politicians and elected officials have other issues that need attention, but education remains important to them. Over the next couple years, education advocates will have to make an extra effort to keep this issue at the fore. • At the same time, education can be an investment in the future, improving things for the next generation, and also a core value that is strongly related to the narrative of the Obama presidency.

41. Current Attitudes on Public Education

42. The PEN Index • The civic index was designed and implemented to measure a community’s perception of itself with regard to its public schools. • The index is made up of many indicators, and those indicators are collapsed into ten categories used as the general measurements of the index. • The Civic Index poll was originally developed in 2006. This is the second time it has been conducted with a national sample. In 2006, the Index was completed nationally and in four locations. This year, the Index has been completed nationally and in Paterson, New Jersey, and San Francisco, California. • The goal of the Index is to gain public input by listening to their concerns and their opinions about their schools locally and nationally. In that regard, PEN believes it is important to find out how voters feel about the schools in their community and what kind of responsibility they take for them. These attitudes are understood through the prism of public opinion because opinion and perception are what drive action—or lack thereof—on the part of community members.

43. A plurality of voters believe schools in their community have stayed the same over the last few years. But, while attitudes have remained stable since 2006, the trends are ominous with “declined” gaining some traction. Adults are more negative toward schools nationally. 2006 Improved: 26% Declined: 27% Stayed Same: 39% 2006 Improved: 16% Declined: 36% Stayed Same: 35% Darker colors equal intensity Over the last five years do you think public schools nationally have improved, declined, or stayed about the same? Over the last five years do you think public schools in your community have improved, declined, or stayed about the same? Source: PEN National Index 2008, Conducted by Lake Research Partners

44. Americans think people in their communities take responsibility for ensuring quality public schools. Attitudes have held steady since 2006. There is not as much intensity as there could be, but overall, the attitudes are positive. 2006: A lot/Some 70% Little/None: 26% *Darker colors equal intensity How much responsibility do you think people in your community take for ensuring there are quality public schools in your community – a lot, some, a little, or none at all. Source: PEN National Index 2008, Conducted by Lake Research Partners

45. Similarly, respondents say that in the past year they have done something to support public schools in their area. In fact, slightly more adults say they have done something this year compared to 2006. 2006: Yes: 54% No: 40% In the past year, have YOU personally done anything to support public schools in your local area? Source: PEN National Index 2008, Conducted by Lake Research Partners

46. Not surprisingly, three-quarters of parents report doing something to support public education, compared to about half of non-parents. In the past year, have YOU personally done anything to support public schools in your local area? Source: PEN National Index 2008, Conducted by Lake Research Partners

47. Adults, however, make careful distinctions. Fifty-nine percent say they have done something to support public schools in their community, but only half say that means they are personally involved – a share that is up somewhat since 2006. 2006: Involved: 47% Not Involved: 52% *Darker colors equal intensity Honestly, how involved would you say you are in helping to make public schools better – very involved, somewhat involved, not too involved, or not involved at all? Source: PEN National Index 2008, Conducted by Lake Research Partners

48. Parents are also more involved than non-parents, but they, too, are more likely to say they have done something in the last year than to say they are personally involved. Honestly, how involved would you say you are in helping to make public schools better – very involved, somewhat involved, not too involved, or not involved at all? Source: PEN National Index 2008, Conducted by Lake Research Partners

49. Americans are NOT hearing enough about education and are certainly hearing less about education this year than they have in past election years. During the election campaigns this year, have you heard or seen more, less, or about the same amount on public education as you have in past years? (Asked of half the sample) During the election campaigns this year, do you think the candidates are focusing too much, not enough, or about the right amount of attention on public education? (Asked of half the sample) Source: PEN National Index 2008, Conducted by Lake Research Partners

50. In many ways, public education was largely absent from the political debate in this election. • In the presidential primaries, education was hardly mentioned in the numerous debates held by each party. • In the middle of a heated primary season, the word education was mentioned only twice at a GOP debate in January. In a two hour debate in February between Sens. Clinton and Obama, education only came up 5 times – among Democrats who supposedly are more responsive on the issue.* • In the general election, a key question on education was reserved for the final moments of the final debate, having received hardly any mention up to that point – and in many ways it has been observed to have generated one of Obama’s better responses. *From an op-ed by Wendy Puriefoy, CEO of PEN, in USA Today on February 27, 2008