Transitions to Democracy; Democracy & Elections

1. Transitions to Democracy;Democracy & Elections

2. Updates: • Do not forget (i) weekly contributions & (ii) final papers • Also, updates & comments on final papers (later this week) • As well as updates/changes in the topics + reading list • Final & final papers due: Monday, January 22, 5 PM, Schuman

3. Gender imbalance, selected countries (Wikipedia) • Male/female ratio (over 65): • Russia 0.46 • Latvia 0.48 • Ukraine 0.52 • World 0.79 (birth: 1.06; 15-64: 1.03) • G7: 0.70–0.75 (birth: 1.05-1.07; 15-64: 1.00-1.04) • Kuwait 1.71 (birth: 1.04; 15-64: 1.77) • U Arab Emirates 2.73 (birth: 1.05; 15-64: 1.55) • Qatar 2.84 (birth: 1.05; 15-64: 2.24)

5. i. Revolution • Radical, long-term reconstruction of the political, social and economic order • Examples: France, Russia, China (possibly U.S. and Iran)

6. Revolution = three stages State breakdown Struggle for power State reconstruction

7. Theories of Revolution • Social & psychological explanations: individual- rather than societal-level explanation • Political-structural approach: what really matters are broad structural conditions

8. Social & psychological theories • Relative vs. absolute deprivation Absolute deprivation → struggle for survival • Relative deprivation: when people feel they receive less than what they deserve

10. Social-psychological theories: relevance • Perception more important than condition itself! Limitations: • Relative deprivation: necessary, rather than sufficient condition • A theory of violence, rather than revolutions?

11. Structural approach • What matters are structural conditions • Revolutions occur in a state • weak internationally and • ineffective domestically

12. ii. “Third Wave” • Huntington: three democratic “waves” • 1820s-1920s: first, long wave • 1922: first “reverse wave” • WWII – 1962: second wave • 1960s – early 1970s: second “reverse wave” • 1974 – Third Wave (# of electoral democracies increased threefold since)

13. “Third Wave”: why? • Causes: internal & external • Internal: • “performance legitimacy” problems (is lack of performance a bigger problem in a non-democratic regime than in a democratic one?) • economic growth

14. External: International environment * External actors (EU, Soviet Union, United States) Eastern Europe: from Brezhnev Doctrine to “Sinatra Doctrine” * Changing role/doctrine of Catholic Church: liberation theology * “Snowballing”

15. Democratic Transitions * Liberalization: opening of an authoritarian regime (without becoming democratic) *Democratic transition: moving from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one Beginning: first signs of collapse or negotiating exit End: first freely elected government takes office *Democratic consolidation: democracy has become “the only game in town” Huntington: the two-turnover test

16. iii. Elections & Democracy (Lindberg) • Questions: • What is Lindberg’s major point? • Is it a theoretical point? Empirical? Both? • How does he go about “proving” it? • How convincing do you think he is? • If you are not persuaded, why is that the case? What would persuade you?

17. Comments/reactions to Lindberg I: “[Lindberg] argued that elections are in and of themselves largely insignificant to democratization.” Lindberg, first paragraph: “In 2002, Thomas Carothers […] argued that elections are in and of themselves largely insignificant to democratization.”

18. Comments/reactions to Lindberg II: “The holding of elections is an indicator of democratization.” “The center statement of this text is that holding of elections is an indicator of democratization.” Lindberg, second paragraph: “This begs the question: Is there a value inherent in the holding of elections, or is the holding of elections merely an indicator of democratization? I believe that the former is the case.”

19. African elections: significance? • Challenge the mainstream scholarly view of elections • (Why Africa?) • An empirical test: elections → democracy • How do elections promote democracy? Elections How? Democracy

20. Elections & Democracy  Positive view: elections = hallmark of democracy  Skeptical view: little value for democracy Elections – in and of themselves insignificant for democracy

21. Lindberg’s argument Elections are not just a mere indicator of democracy There is an inherent value in holding elections: Elections → Democracy

22. Evidence? More elections → More democracy “Measure” for democracy: e.g., Freedom House scores: Democracy = Political Rights + Civil Liberties Is this measure tautological?

23. Freedom House’s Political Rights checklist A. Electoral Process: 1. Head of state and/or head of government elected through free and fair elections? 2. Legislative representatives elected through free and fair elections? Yes, the measure is tautological Avoiding tautology: Democracy ≈ Civil Liberties

24. Freedom House’s Civil Liberties checklist: • Freedom of Expression and Belief (e.g., free & independent media and other forms of cultural expression) • Associational and Organizational Rights (e.g., freedom of assembly, demonstration, and open public discussion ) • Rule of Law (e.g., an independent judiciary) • Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights (e.g., gender equality)

29. How do elections promote democracy? 1) “Citizens become voters” 2) “Democratic lock-in mechanisms” 3) “Self-fulfilling prophecies” 4) “Civic Organizations” 5) “New roles for state institutions” 6) “Media”

30. iv. Final paper • 10-20 pages long (excluding notes, bibliography, tables, figures, appendices) • Double-spaced, Times New Roman 12 • Highly recommended: King, “Battling the Six Evil Geniuses of Essay Writing” [McCubbins, “Guide to Writing a Scientific Paper”]

31. Criteria for evaluation • Clear thesis • Quality of argumentation • Quality of writing • Logical consistency • Argument ↔ Evidence (connection) • Only relevant arguments and information & evidence included • Make good use of relevant literature

32. Economic development ↔ Democracy • Is there a relationship between development and democracy? • If so, why is that the case, and what is the nature of this relationship? • Causal (endogenous): Economic development → Democracy b) Exogenous (ED sustains democracy, but does not make a country democratic)