THORPEX-Africa: Programme to Mitigate the Effects of Natural Disasters for the Benefit of the African Society.

1. THORPEX-Africa: Programme to Mitigate the Effects of Natural Disasters for the Benefit of the African Society. AïdaDiongueNiang*, Ernest Afiesimama, AronaDiedhiou, Andre KamgaFoamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, OusmaneNdiaye, * Direction de la MeteorologieNationale Senegal E-mail: aida_dniang@yahoo.fr

2. Outline • Meteorological and Climate related Natural Disaters • THORPEX programme • THORPEX-Africa: • Challenges • Science Plan • Implementation Plan • Regional Committee and Way Foreward • Co-operation and Collaboration

3. 90% of Disasters are Climate, Meteorology and Hydrology related (Number of Events, 1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

4. Africa: nearly 85 % of Economic Losses from Natural Disasters are related to Flood and Drought(in West Africa from 1980 to 2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

5. Strong Link between Climate/Meterological conditions and some Diseases Meningitis Malaria Dust events High humidity Lowhumidity Temperature: factor of limitation Rainfall

6. Strong Link between Climate/Weather and Agriculture/Food Security/Water Resources Severe droughts in the 70’s and 80’s in the Sahel Water Resources shortage Very low cereals production Hunger Livestock / 2 Rural exodus Strong correlation between rainfall and water ressources etc

7. Need to improve Forecasting system Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Energy Water Resource Management Food security Strong Wind Transport Coastal Marine Hazards Intensity Industry Health Tropical Cyclones Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Exposure is increasing! High-impact weather events Drought Conditions Heat waves Frequency

8. What is THORPEX? • THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment: a ten-year R&D programme as part of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). • Key research meteorological component of the WMO Natural Disaster Reduction and Mitigation Programme • The final goals of THORPEX are: • Reduction and mitigation of natural disasters and the adverse effects of weather ; • Realization of societal, economic and environmental benefits of improved weather forecasts.

9. What THORPEX will do? End-to-end forecast system: holistic approch Predictability and DynamicalProcesses (PDP) Observing System Data Assimilation and ObservingStrategies (OS/DAOS) • Societal and EconomicResearch and Applications (SERA) THORPEX provides support for development of plans that meet regional needs

10. THORPEX-Africa • Challenges: • Poor observing system: inaccurate initial state, lack of reliable climatological data; • High deficiencies in models and forecasting systems: inaccuracy in weather forecast and climate prediction; • Inappropriate telecommunication systems for exchange of meteorological and climate data within Africa and with the international community; • Inappropriate human resoources often unable to meet up with rapid technological developments; • Weakness in communication infrastrcture to users; • Lack of awarness by stakeholders on the value of meteorological information in socio-economic development and environmental protection

11. THORPEX-Africa: Science Planhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/thorpex/index_en.html By an African Task Force • To Define the Objectives • To Identify the Major Issues • To Address Scientific Questions in Each Subprogram • To Describe the Cross-cutting Tasks relating to Improvement of Infrastructures and Telecommunications facilities, Enhancement of Capacity Building, Conduction of Demonstration Projects… • To Identify Collaboration and Co-operation needed

12. THORPEX-Africa Implementation Plan:OS/DAOS • Temp messages received at ECMWF on May 04, 2005 with very limited Temp messages received at ECMWF on May 04, 2005 with very limited observations over Africa. Promote investigations focusing on impacts of additional field campaigns observations on high impact weather analyses and forecasts over all Africa; Increase the use of satellite data; Promote assimilation of different available observing platforms ( AMDAR, GPS, etc); Improve sensors calibration and bias corrections algorithms with field campaign data, Frequency of Temp messages entre 2000 et 2006

13. THORPEX-Africa Implementation Plan: PDP Model simulations: squall line over Niger Build Catalog of High-impact weather systems in each African sub-region Evaluate the Representation of High-impact weather related processes and phenomena in NWP systems and Monitor the Forecasting Systems Performance. Enhance Capacity building on Limited Area Models (LAMs) by identifying existing opportunities in Africa and coordinate efforts by promoting mobility of researchers Develop more Conceptual Models for African High-impact weather events (contribution to the Handbook project) Use Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to estimate forecast uncertainties and investigate sub-seasonal forecasting. Satellite image: Tropical cyclone Eline provoking flooding in Mozambique and Madagascar

14. THORPEX-Africa Implementation Plan: SERA • Conduct Forecasts Demonstrations to disseminate meteorological information and assess its utility in sensitive sectors.  • Build a High-impact weather Information System based on existing results and high-impact weather catalog (see PDP) • Improve Communication on Forecast Uncertainties, • Develop and test of user relevant forecast verifications systems, • Assess of cost /benefits of forecast improvements. Priority applications sectors identified: - Disaster and water management Agriculture, Fishery, Health Aviation, Energy Energy Water Resource Management Food security Transport Industry Health Urban areas

15. THORPEX-Africa: Regional Committe and Way Foreward 9 members representing the 5 African regions with 2 co-chairs • Complete the implementation plan by April 2008 • Seek Endorsement of the THORPEX –Africa Science and Implementation Plans to NMHS and Research Institutes via WMO • Disseminate the Plans to all stakeholders   • Build strategic co-operation with international institutes • Build partnerships with sensitive public and private organizations, with development partners to mobilize resources for Implementation • Monitor, facilitate implementation and prepare progress reports.

16. Levels of Co-operation Needed • Between all stakeholders(academic institutions, operationalcenters, decision and policymakers, end-users, etc) to ensure the success of the end-to-end forecast system • In Africa to coordinate efforts and enhanceknowledge and know-how exchanges. • With major overseas NWP centers(due to limitedcapacity in modeling and trainedhuman ressources in Africa)to interact in order to improveAfricanclimate and weatherforecasts. • With international organizationsinterested in climate and weather , eg. UNESCO/ICTP, TWAS, ICSU, etc to support efforts in capacity building • Between THORPEX and WMO relevant programmes and otherregionalprojects, e.g. • AfricanMonsoonMultidisciplinary Analyses : AMMA-THORPEX WG • CLIMDEV for a seamlessforcasting systemfromclimate/seasonal to short-term .

17. Status of cooperation in Meteorology Given the fact that: • No barriers for meteorological phenomena and existing global teleconnections • An international framework, i.e. WMO and other relevant programmes, to facilitate co-operation for operational needs, to support R&D and training activities, to encourage meteorological applications to sensitive sectors • Opportunity to take for African Researchers and Policy/Decision Makers to Enhance R&D activities in Climate and Meteorology for the Benefit of the African Society.

18. AMESEGNALEHU!