Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC

1. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand

2. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Outline: • Background • Objective & Scope of study • Study sites • Method • Finding (preliminary) • Impact of climate change on rice production • Rain-fed farmer vulnerability analysis Remarks: • Surveyed data still need to be validated and verified • Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed • Adaptation options is to be further evaluated

3. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Background • Part of AIACC AS07 Regional Study: Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change • Joint research effort by • Suppakorn Chinvanno1 • Boontium Lersupavithnapa2 • Somkith Boulidam3 • Thavone Inthavong4 • Chitnucha Budhaboon5 • 1Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand • 2Faculty of Agriculture, Ubonratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand • 3 Faculty of Social Science, NationalUniversity of Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR • 4 National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute, Lao PDR • 5 Rice Research Center, Thailand

4. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Objectives: Pilot study to identify & characterize vulnerability & adaptation to climate change impact of rain-fed farmer and build regional capacity & network of researchers Scope: Climate Variability Climate Change Scenario Changes in yield of rice production Changes in yield of rice production scenarios • Who will vulnerable? • How? • How did they response to the past climate variability? • Can this cope with future change? • If not, what to do about future? Vulnerability Vulnerability Adaptation new no expand sufficient Coping capacity Sustainable livelihood yes

5. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Study Sites: • Thailand: Ubonratchathani Province, covering 18 villages in 2 districts and devided into: • Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption • Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice • Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only • Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only • Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution • Lao PDR: Savannakhet Province, covering 4 villages in Songkhone District

6. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Finding: Preliminary result • Survey data still need to be validated and verified • Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed • Adaptation options is to be further evaluated

7. Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR Simulated yield is done using 5 years climate condition under each CO2 scenarios and average the results

8. Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR

9. Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Simulated rice yields under different climate scenarios in 3 regionsin Thailand

10. Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Averaged simulated rice yields of each decade under three climate scenarios:Sakonnakorn Province, North-eastern Thailand

11. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact:Stakeholders engagement • Engaging Local Community:Target social group – Rain-fed farmer community • Conduct on-farm interview & focus group discussion with local farmer communities • Thailand: North-eastern region - Ubonratchathani province (covering 600 households in 18 villages in Det-udom and Najaluay Districts) • Lao PDR: Central region - Savannakhet province (covering 160 households in 4 villages in Songkhone district) • Engaging Policy Maker: Series of meeting & workshop

12. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Identifying vulnerable group Defining rain-fed farmer with risk to climate impact – potential vulnerable group: Multi-criteria analysis Household Economic Condition 1. Good / sustained Farmer community 2. Bad / not sustained Coping Capacity 3. High 4. Low 5. High 6. Low Livelihood dependency on rice production Potential Vulnerable Group 2+4+5 2+3+5 2+4+6 Potential Non-Vulnerable Group 1+3+6 1+4+5 1+3+5 1+4+6 2+3+6

13. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Indices to evaulate climate risk – Lao PDR

14. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Indices to evaulate climate risk – Lao PDR • Total possible Range Scoring = 19 – 55 • Low climate risk group = 19 – 31 • Moderate climate risk group = >31 – 43 • High climate risk group = >43 – 55

15. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 15% Household vulnerable to climate impact = 45 households (28% of total survey)

16. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 30% Household vulnerable to climate impact = 97 households(60% of total survey)

17. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change – Lao PDR (97 households or 60% of total survey)

18. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Lao PDR Increase total productivity by increasing rice production by improving farming / crop management method and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing livestock and / or off-farm income. • Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability: • #1 – Seek for off-farm products e.g. products from natural source • #2 – Implement alternate crop • #3 – Increase buffer in coping capacity, e.g. community based rice bank, livestock

19. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand

20. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand

21. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand • Total possible Range Scoring = 12 – 34 • Low climate risk group = 12 – 19 • Moderate climate risk group = >19 – 26 • High climate risk group = >26 – 34

22. Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer Climate risk group – Thailand when rice production reduced by 15% Household vulnerable to climate impact = 28 households (28.6%)

23. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change (28 households in Zone 1 Thailand)

24. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Zone 1, Thailand Increase income per capita by increasing extra income, perhaps to be higher than non-vulnerable group in order to cope with higher expenditure and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing cash convertible livestock. • Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability: • #1 – Seek for off-farm income – laboring in the city • #2 – Increasing buffer in coping capacity – number of livestock • #3 – Alternate crop

25. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Climate risk group & their characteristics to be analyzed in the same method for the farmer in other zones • Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption • Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice • Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only • Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only • Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution Concerned issue: Research gap Vulnerability profile not explained & multi-dimension aspect, e.g. multiple climate stress, temporal aspect of the climate impact – time of occurrence, consecutive year of extreme event, dynamic of society, etc. not yet systematically covered.

26. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Summary: Climate change shows strong tendency to have impact on rain-fed rice agriculture system, particularly the increasing in magnitude and frequency of extreme climate variability. Rain-fed farmer’s livelihood would be affected from the damage or reduction in rice production due to climate impact. Engaging local stakeholders to get better understanding on current adaptation strategies & evaluate whether they would be sufficient to cope with future climate impact or not.

27. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Project wrap-up plan: Planning adaptation strategy & evaluation Some concerned issues – site specific / limitation / feasibility • The threshold of natural system condition to sufficiently support community in compensating the lost in rice production of farmer in Lao PDR Also degradation of the natural system as well as change in population to the threshold that such system may be overly exploited. • Economic condition in the city in Thailand to support excess labor from upcountry, who try to seek for extra income to support their livelihood when income from rice production is not sufficient. • Innovative new adaptation strategies to cope with the future vulnerability to climate change impact need to be developed

28. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Thank You