Periodontal Disease Risk

1. Periodontal Disease Risk Developed by PreViser, Inc. Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

2. Overview • What is risk? • What are the clinical implications? • How is risk determined? Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

3. What is Risk? • General Context • The likelihood of suffering harm or loss • Health Care Context • The likelihood of a worse health status during the natural history of disease (risk) • The likelihood of an undesired treatment outcome (prognosis) Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

4. Severe Disease Initial Stage Detectable Stage Terminal Disease Moderate Disease Health Risk, Diagnosis, and the Natural History of Disease Diagnosis is a description of health status at the current time Risk predicts health status at a future time Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

5. Risk + Disease = 3rd Dimension Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

6. Severe Disease Initial Stage Detectable Stage Terminal Disease Moderate Disease Health Clinical Implications Diagnosis is used to determine treatment for existing “visible” lesions (Reparative treatment) Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

7. Severe Disease Initial Stage Detectable Stage Terminal Disease Moderate Disease Health Clinical Implications • Risk is used to: • Justify treatment • Modulate intensity and aggressiveness • Determine treatment to prevent future lesions • (Preventative treatment) Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

8. Justify Treatment ???? • If everyone is low risk, then no one requires treatment, regardless of health status • If everyone is high risk, then each patient needs the same preventative treatment and reparative treatment is based on the existing lesions • When risk for disease is stratified then treatment needs vary with those at high risk needing more care compared to those at low risk Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

9. Is Periodontal Disease Risk Stratified? • Using the NHANES III database, Albandar, et al (J Periodontol 1999; 70: 13-29) reported the prevalence of Periodontitis in the adult population (30 years and older) • 65% were Healthy • 22% had Beginning Periodontitis • 13% had Moderate to Severe Periodontitis • When the same data is viewed by age cohort, … Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

10. Risk for Periodontitis is 60% 70 60 50 % of Age Cohort 40 30 20 Periodontitis Linear trend line 10 0 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-90 Age Cohort Periodontal Disease Risk Risk to remain healthy is 40% Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

11. Risk for Beginning Periodontitis is 35% 45 Moderate to Severe Periodontitis 40 Beginning Periodontitis 35 Linear trend line 30 % of Age Cohort 25 20 15 10 Risk for Moderate to Severe Periodontitis is 25% 5 0 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-90 Age Cohort Periodontal Disease Risk, cont. Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

12. Treatment Intensity and Aggressiveness An Example Treatment for a 75 year old patient with generalized 6 mm pockets may be limited to periodontal maintenance whereas surgery may be selected for a 35 year old patient with the same conditions when the risk level of the older patient is much lower than the younger patient. Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

13. Preventative Treatment • Preventative treatment targets risk factors where risk factors are defined as, • An environmental, behavioral, or biologic factor, which if present directly increase the probability of a disease occurring, and if absent or removed reduces the probability. Risk factors are part of the causal chain, or expose the host to the causal chain. Once disease occurs, removal of a risk factor may not result in a cure. Beck, Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 1998 Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

14. Severe Disease Initial Stage Detectable Stage Terminal Disease Moderate Disease Health Preventative Treatment • Preventative treatment applied before detectable disease occurs or during another stage of disease that is reversible can prevent irreversible lesions that require reparative treatment. For example: • Personal daily oral hygiene • Periodontal maintenance care Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

15. Doomed by high risk? • It is possible to be at high risk and not suffer the consequences of terminal disease by management of the risk factors. For example: • Daily personal oral hygiene for bacterial plaque • Smoking cessation • Blood-sugar control for diabetes • Periodontal surgery to eliminate pockets Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

16. How is Risk Determined? • Subjective opinion, the current method, is highly variable leading to the conclusion that treatment may be misapplied for some patients, which is understandable since - • The professional literature provides a list of risk factors but no validated objective method to correlate multiple factors for clinical use Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

17. Clinicians vs. OHIS™ Risk Assessment • Study group of 107 patients with broad range of risk for periodontitis • Full mouth periodontal charting • Medical and dental histories • Full mouth periapical radiographs with bitewings • Clinical photographs Persson GR et al. Assessing periodontal disease risk. J Am Dent Assoc 2003 Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

18. Clinicians’ vs. OHIS™ Risk Assessment, cont. • 3 Groups of expert evaluators • 6 periodontists with national and international clinical, academic, and military experience • 10 periodontists who participated in the development of the OHIS™ tool • 36 private practice general dentists who referred patients to periodontists • Risk was assessed on a 1 (low) to 5 (high) scale by clinicians and OHIS™ Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

19. OHIS™ 107 Patient Records, Risk Assessed using OHIS™ Three Expert Groups Subjectively Assess Same Patients Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

20. OHIS™ 107 Patient Records, Risk Assessed using OHIS™ Three Expert Groups Subjectively Assess Same Patients 6 Practicing Experts Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

21. OHIS™ 6 Practicing Experts 10 PreViser Founders 107 Patient Records, Risk Assessed using OHIS™ Three Expert Groups Subjectively Assess Same Patients Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

22. OHIS™ 6 Practicing Experts 10 PreViser Founders 107 Patient Records, Risk Assessed using OHIS™ Three Expert Groups Subjectively Assess Same Patients 36 General Dentists “Periodontally Aware” Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

23. Expert Periodontists (5 Patient Evaluations per data point) Previser Founder’s (5 Patient Evaluations…) General Dentist (5 Patient Evaluations… Risk Calculator Score = 3 20% Agreement with OHIS™ For OHIS™assessed patients with Risk Score of 3.. Practitioner evaluation over-estimating risk by 2 scores Practitioner evaluation over-estimating risk by 1 score Over- Estimated Risk = Inappropriate Treatment Under- Estimated Risk = Inappropriate Treatment Practitioner evaluation under-estimating risk by 1 score Conclusion: Clinicians can’t assess the risk offuture disease Practitioner evaluation under-estimating risk by 2 scores Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

24. Validity and Accuracy of OHIS™ Determined Risk • 523 subjects enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Dental Longitudinal Study who had only routine care • Periodontal pocket depth measurements • Digitized full-mouth radiographs with bitewings • Medical and dental histories • Risk was assessed at baseline using OHIS™ Page et al. Validity and accuracy of a risk calculator in predicting periodontal disease. J Am Dent Assoc 2002 Page et al. Longitudinal validation of a risk calculator for periodontal disease. J Clin Periodontol 2003 Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

25. Validity and Accuracy of OHIS™ Determined Risk, cont. • Changes in periodontal status determined by comparing baseline data to data at 3, 9, and 15 years • Alveolar bone loss (mean bone loss, percentage of sites with bone loss per subject) • Tooth loss (mean percent tooth loss, percentage of subjects with tooth loss in each risk group) Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

26. 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Mean Percent (±SE) Alveolar Bone Loss 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Year 3 Year 9 Year 15 Mean Bone Loss Risk 5 A measure of disease severity Risk 4 Risk 3 Risk 2 Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

27. 70% Risk 5 65% Risk 4 60% Risk 3 55% Risk 2 50% 45% % Sites with Bone Loss 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Year 3 Year 9 Year 15 Percentage of Sites with Bone Loss A measure of disease extent Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

28. 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% Mean % (±SE) Tooth Loss 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Year 3 Year 9 Year 15 Mean Tooth Loss Risk 5 Risk 4 Risk 3 Risk 2 Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

29. 100% 90% Risk 5 80% Risk 4 70% Risk 3 60% % of subjects 50% 40% Risk 2 30% 20% 10% 0% Year 3 Year 9 Year 15 Percentage of Subjects with Tooth Loss Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

30. Summary • Risk and disease are distinct entities that when combined provide a more comprehensive description of health status, which can be used to provide better care • Risk is determined from risk factors where diagnosis is determined from (“visible”) clinical signs and symptoms Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved

31. Summary, cont. • Diagnosis leads to reparative treatment whereas risk guides preventive treatment and modulates treatment intensity and aggressiveness • Because the population is stratified by risk for periodontal disease, treatment should be customized based on a validated objective method that determines the unique risk level and disease status of each patient Courtesy PreViser Corporation, all rights reserved