1 / 20

Assessment of Progress in Implementation

Overview. 1.Government of National Unity (GNU):Economic developments and outlook Pro-poor spending effortsSystemic constraints and priority stepsThree Areas2.Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS):Budget effortsSystemic constraints3.Trends in development financing4.Update on MDG prospe

MikeCarlo
Download Presentation

Assessment of Progress in Implementation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

    1. Assessment of Progress in Implementation Briefing prepared by the Staffs of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund Sudan Consortium Khartoum, March 20 2007

    2. Overview 1. Government of National Unity (GNU): Economic developments and outlook Pro-poor spending efforts Systemic constraints and priority steps Three Areas 2. Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS): Budget efforts Systemic constraints 3. Trends in development financing 4. Update on MDG prospects

    3. 1. Government of National Unity Overview of Key Messages High growth and some important pro-poor efforts in evidence, but performance in 2006 was dominated by: Serious shortcomings in fiscal decentralization and state and local pro-poor efforts, especially in marginalized areas Lags in some key structural reforms needed to promote broad-based growth The ongoing crisis in Darfur – large numbers of displaced and vulnerable, requiring costly humanitarian efforts ? Review of experience needed in order to learn lessons to improve performance in 2007 and beyond

    4. Government of National Unity Macroeconomic Developments Real GDP growth about 11 %, bolstered by oil output, a good harvest, and a continuing boom in construction & services. However, inflation pressures developed (12-month rate of inflation rose from 5.6% at end-2005 to 15.7% at end-2006). And the dinar appreciated by 21% in real terms (with adverse impacts on poor farmers and the size of SDD transfers to the GOSS)

    5. Government of National Unity Structural reforms Progress made on oil sector transparency, budget classification, decentralisation and reduction of domestic fuel subsidies Pending reforms: fiscal reporting, audits of Sudapet, rationalization of tax exemptions, marketing monopolies for gum arabic….

    6. Government of National Unity Macroeconomic Prospects Government Debt External – improved indicators reflect higher exports and GDP, but nominal debt keeps rising and it remains unsustainable Domestic – deficit also financed by domestic borrowing (e.g. bonds) and the inflation tax Challenge is to address these imbalances (increasing fiscal and external current account deficits) ? Fiscal deficit in 2007 could rise to 5-6% of GDP Possible actions: rationalization of tax exemptions and revision of spending increases (while protecting pro-poor spending and transfers related to peace agreements Real exchange rate appreciation pressures need to be offset by fiscal restraint and removal of barriers to private sector growth.

    7. Government of National Unity Trends in Pro-Poor Spending* GNU pro-poor allocations, excluding transfers to the GOSS, estimated at 4.7% of GDP in 2006 : Above 2005 level (4%), but well below budget (5.7%), JAM commitments (5.9%), and HIPC average (8%), and, for example, neighboring Ethiopia (19.1%) and Uganda (11.1%) JAM expenditure performance – overall 71%, 41% without infrastructure 2007 budget promises jump in pro-poor share to 6.4% of GDP, mainly through higher transfers to Northern states * Caveat on definition.. work advancing under PER, but still in-progress

More Related