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Ellen Baras Senior Investment Analyst

Consumer Staples/Discretionary. A Cautious Consumer. Ellen Baras Senior Investment Analyst. William Hyatt Senior Investment Analyst. Brett Varchetto Senior Investment Analyst. Coverage Overview. Ellen Baras Consumer Staples Beverages / Food / Tobacco / Household & Personal Care

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Ellen Baras Senior Investment Analyst

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  1. Consumer Staples/Discretionary A Cautious Consumer Ellen Baras Senior Investment Analyst William Hyatt Senior Investment Analyst Brett Varchetto Senior Investment Analyst

  2. Coverage Overview • Ellen Baras • Consumer Staples • Beverages / Food / Tobacco / Household & Personal Care • Consumer Discretionary • Department Stores, Specialty Apparel • William Hyatt • Consumer Discretionary • Media / Entertainment, Business Services, Publishing, Telecom • Gaming / Lodging / Leisure • Brett Varchetto • Consumer Staples • Food & Drug Retailing, Food Distribution • Consumer Discretionary • Hardline / Broadline / Specialty Retail, Restaurants

  3. Sector View: Consumer Staples Marketweight – Balance Between Macro and Consumer • Key Influences: • Commodity Relief • Currency Headwind Abating • Restrained Consumer Spending • Trading Down Mentality

  4. Favorite Stocks: Consumer Staples • Procter & Gamble (PG, 1/A) • General Mills (GIS, 1/B) • Kellogg (K, 1/B)

  5. Sector View: Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary – Caution Still Warranted • Valuations Implying Strong Earnings Recovery Despite Mixed Macro Data • Drivers of Concern: • Volatile Commodity Costs • Erratic Employment Numbers • Tighter Credit Availability • Shaky Consumer Confidence • Recommend Barbell Approach to Holdings • Combination of Defensive and Early Cycle / Beta Names

  6. Favorite Stocks: Consumer Discretionary • TJX Companies (TJX, 1/A) • Kohl’s (KSS, 1/B) • McDonald’s (MCD, 1/A) • Lowe’s (LOW, 1/B) • Disney (DIS, 1/B) • Comcast (CMCSA, 1/B) • Western Union (WU, 1/B)

  7. Thank You. Ellen Baras Senior Investment Analyst William Hyatt Senior Investment Analyst Brett Varchetto Senior Investment Analyst

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