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Rick Thompson Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading

Rick Thompson Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading. The Evolution of Triple Play: VOIP, IMS, FMC, WiMAX, IPTV. Triple Play Symposium 2006 Dallas, Boston, Paris. Heavy Reading Research.

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Rick Thompson Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading

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  1. Rick Thompson Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading The Evolution of Triple Play: VOIP, IMS, FMC, WiMAX, IPTV Triple Play Symposium 2006 Dallas, Boston, Paris

  2. Heavy Reading Research • Heavy Reading has published numerous research reports, analyzing the current state of the technology & expected market development for topics including IPTV, VOIP, IMS, FMC, Carrier Ethernet, IP DSLAMs, ROADMs, Pseudowires, AdvancedTCA, Next-Gen SONET, etc. • Heavy Reading next-gen broadband/IPTV research 2005 and 2006: • IPTV and the Future of Telecom Video Network Architectures (6/05) • IP DSLAMs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (8/05) • MSAPs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (10/05) • IP Video and the New Broadband Edge (12/05) • DSL Gateways: Beyond the Router (2/06) • Multimedia Whole-Home Networking: Solving the IPTV Distribution Dilemma (4/06) • The Future of Internet TV: Emerging “Over-the-Top” Internet Video Services (planned Summer 2006) • Heavy Reading conducted interviews with hundreds of technology suppliers, service providers & investors with a direct interest in telecom-related topics.

  3. Beyond Triple Play: Flexibility Is the Killer APP Entertainment Productivity/Reference Communications On-Line Gaming Downloads Real-Time Play Multiplayer Hosting Voice (VoIP) Security Anti-Virus Firewall SPAM URL Filtering Tiered VPN Personal Video Streaming Music Email Home Monitoring Fax Services Streaming Audio Radio Concerts Info Services Financial, News, Travel Instant Messaging Distributed Printing Photos, Etc. Video IP/PC TV Video on Demand Pay Per View Digital Video Recording Video Telephony Personal Storage Images, Video, Data Online Collaboration Dynamic Bandwidth Upgrades Info Services Sports, Games, Hobbies Wireless Backhaul

  4. Incumbent Dilemmas, 2005 • British Telecom • Retail revenues down 2.5% • Retail profits down 10% • Deutsche Telecom • Domestic revenues down 1.6% • Broadband/fixed revenues down 3.6% • France Telecom • Domestic residential revenues down 1.2% • Domestic enterprise revenues down 5.4% • KPN • Fixed network revenues down 4% • Business revenues down 9%

  5. Major Themes • VOIP will be the dominant wireline telephony technology within five years– situation is less certain on the wireless side • IMS has won near-universal support among service providers, and is driving RFPs for NGNs • WiFi, WiMax and IP could disrupt the mobile telephony cartel, with major long-term consequences • Multimegabit broadband networks will spread rapidly in the next five years, with telcos moving increasingly to FTTx after 2008 • This transition is being driven by the need to provider high-quality video content, including HDTV and online gaming • This in turn is having a major impact on home technologies, where the market is wide open to innovation

  6. By 2007, VOIP Will Dominate Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to VOIP, August 2005. Base: 125 Service Providers

  7. Mainstream VOIP Is a Reality • Service provider VOIP deployment plans • VOIP versus Internet voice Source: The Future of VOIP: A Heavy Reading Service Provider Study, September 2005

  8. There Are Still Technical Barriers

  9. IMS Research Findings • The 2006-2007 time period will be the most important period in FMC, IMS and NGN technology and service development. • For service providers, IMS's main appeal is its ability to provide more applications faster and at lower cost. • Fixed/mobile convergence is an important secondary motivator. • Although IMS is seen primarily as a mechanism for deploying revenue-generating applications, there is little agreement about which applications should be deployed first, and this lack of consensus may delay carrier implementations. • IMS is a complex specification, and there are gaps in the standards, especially around policy control and service creation. • There are strong parallels and linkages between IMS and two other emerging industry standardization movements: service delivery platforms and AdvancedTCA.

  10. When IMS? Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans

  11. Why IMS? • Layered architecture • Separates transport, control and applications • “We can buy best of breed at every layer!” • Access-agnostic • Simpler convergence of fixed and mobile networks • “Services no longer tied to access network technology!” • IP applications • With QoS, security, charging • “A means to fight IP applications leakage to the Internet!” • New kinds of applications • Blended together • “Higher ARPU, lower churn!” • More applications, much more quickly, at much lower cost • But controlled, supplied and billed by service provider • “No need to rely on a few killer apps!”

  12. Apps and Services Drive IMS Source: Heavy Reading 2006 Survey of Service Provider Plans for IMS. Base: 93 Service Providers

  13. Service Providers Buy The FMC Vision Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence, November 2004. Base: 109 Service Providers

  14. Expect FMC to Transform the Industry Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence, November 2004. Base: 109 Service Providers

  15. FMC Is A Higher Priority For European Service Providers

  16. Obstacles To FMC Progress Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans

  17. WiMAX Deployment Plans • Network operators are overwhelmingly positive about theimpact WiMax will have on networks • WiMax enthusiasm cuts across all types of carriers and across all geographic regions • The next 12 to 18 months will be critical in determining carrier investment in WiMax • More than 80 percent of survey respondents expect to see WiMax deployments by the end of 2007 • Network operators are surprisingly open to deploying WiMax using unlicensed spectrum, but interest in pre-standard WiMax products is slight • Carriers expect to use WiMax to bolster delivery of voice, data, and even triple-play services, but there’s less interest in WiMax for wireless backhaul

  18. WiMAX Product Maturity

  19. WiMAX Deployment Plans

  20. Mobile or Fixed WiMAX?

  21. Mobile WiMAX • The first Mobile WiMax services will launch in Korea in mid 2006, using Samsung equipment; U.S. service launches will follow, possibly as soon as 2007 • Stealth chipset startups are attempting to leapfrog the market and go directly to Mobile WiMax; names in the frame include Beecem, SiWave, Cygnus, Runcom • Adaptix claims to have already demonstrated system-level mobility based on scaleable OFDMA • A market for 802.16e line cards and software will emerge alongside demand for smart antenna software suites, as major fabs and OEMs catch on to Mobile WiMax's potential • Initial services will offer handoff performance suitable for data, but unsuitable for VOIP services

  22. IPTV: Telecom Meets Entertainment • TV delivery is moving from HFC-based broadcast to IP-based multicast/unicast • Telcos: IPTV, Telco TV, Telco Video (different names, same thing) • MSOs: SDV initiatives; NGNA (many IPTV-like concepts) • “Internet TV” is organically evolving in parallel • Google, Yahoo, Apple, YouTube, MLB.com, major broadcast channels, etc. • Technology platforms: Brightcove, Narrowstep, thePlatform, Veoh, etc. • Network technologies: DPI, Policy Control, granular QoS • Video search engines, P2P video file sharing, etc. • Competitive or complimentary to IPTV? • Regardless of the model, multimedia content is driving telecom • Wireline • Wireless

  23. Technology Shifts Impacting Market Evolution • Compression & format: MPEG2  MPEG4; SD  HD • More channels, lower bit rates • Access network: 1.5-3 Mbit/s  20-30+ Mbit/s; ATM  Ethernet/IP • Combination xDSL/FTTx • Aggregation network: ATM  GigE/10GigE, IP multicast, QOS • Right amount of aggregation layer intelligence? • IP edge: High density/capacity, Ethernet-centric, per-service QOS, unicast/multicast scale, integrated B-RAS, high-availability edge • Transport network: static/legacy  reconfigurable/multiservice • Services evolve: Broadcast TV  VOD  PVR/nPVR  integrated & interactive services • Mobile & IMS? • Internet TV?

  24. IPTV Inflection Points Phase III: 2008 – 2010 Service Differentiation Focus on scaling number of IPTV subscribers and introducing “integrated services.” Also includes potential IMS Integration. Phase II: 2006 – 2007 Quality of Experience Subscriber Scale Integrated Services Focus on service assurance and QoE for existing services and continue adding new services: enhanced channel package, additional HD content, additional VOD content, subscription VOD, time-shifting. Phase I: 2004 - 2005 Technical Viability Focus on initial network & service layer infrastructure. Modest, controlled service rollouts. Basic service offerings. Integrated Communication, Information, Entertainment PVR, nPVR MPEG-4 HD Basic Broadcast TV (IP Multicast) Initial, Limited VOD Portfolio Expansion: More HD, VOD, PVR Multicast to Unicast Service Mix IPTV Market Evolution

  25. End-to-End IPTV: A Brief Overview Content Owner/Aggregator Residential Subscriber TELECOM OPERATOR Video Content Acquisition National Video Head-End Office Broadband Routing Network Infrastructure Broadband Aggregation Network Infrastructure Broadband Access Network Infrastructure Multimedia Home Network End-to-End Policy Control VoIP DSLAM IP STB Super Head-End Office (SHO) Video Hub Office (VHO) Video Serving Office (VSO) Content Providers RG Copper PC Broadcast Video Head-End System Fiber 20th Century Fox General Electric News Corp. Sony Time Warner Viacom Walt Disney Etc. Gigabit Ethernet Aggregation Edge Router/ B-RAS OLT/ONU ONT Core Router an/.or Edge Router/ B-RAS Edge Encoders Middleware, CA/DRM VOD Server Complex Metro Transport Regional/LH Transport OLT ONU Live and On Demand Content Acquired From Multiple Satellite and Terrestrial Broadcast Programming Sources. Redundant National SHOs Ingest & Distribute IP-based Video Content. Centralized VOD Libraries May Exist. Numerous Regional VHOs Receive National Content from SHOs and Ingest & Distribute Regional Content and IP VOD. Local VSOs Receive & Distribute Content from Upstream. Local Channels and Distributed VOD Also Served From VSO. Various Copper- and Fiber-based Access Networks In Place To Deliver IPTV to the Residential Subscriber. SP Controlled Subscriber Premise: ONT/NID, Residential Gateway, IP STB/DVR, PC, VoIP, In-Home Distribution Network

  26. IPTV Bandwidth Requirements • Video • IPTV with MPEG2 compression • Standard Definition 3.5Mbps • High Definition 19.3Mbps • IPTV with MPEG4 compression • Standard Definition 2.0Mbps • High Definition 8.0Mbps

  27. Centralized Architectures? Broadband Aggregation Network Broadband Edge Network Broadband Access Network Policy Control Server Residential Gateway Broadband Aggregation Switches/Routers IP/MPLS Core Voice B’cast Video Broadband Access Nodes n Homes VOD Broadband Edge Router HSI

  28. Distributed Architectures? Broadband Access Network Broadband Aggregation Network Broadband Edge Network Residential Gateway Policy Control Server Broadband Aggregation Switches/Routers IP/MPLS Core Voice B’cast Video Broadband Access Nodes n Homes VOD Broadband Edge Router HSI Regional/Local Video Content

  29. Broadband Access Broadband Aggregation Broadband Edge • Centralized Policy Management • Video CAC • Topology Intelligence • Quality Measurement Residential Gateway Distributed Policy Enforcement Voice B’cast Video GigE/10GigE Aggregation Switches/Routers n Homes Access Nodes VOD Edge Router HSI Regional/Local Video Content HSI First Mile: Aggregate bandwidth needed for all services Fourth Mile: Link bandwidth equals server capacity VOD controller limits total amount of streams Second Mile: Concurrent VOD sessions Non-blocking Multicast TV channels Third Mile: Max. concurrent VoD sessions 1 4 3 2 VOD VOD IPTV B’cast VoIP B’cast Network Dimensioning Is Critical

  30. QOE Measurement • Is essential to: • Monitor SLAs and troubleshoot issues • Dimension capacity and tune VoD CAC • Accurate measurement of: • Overall video service quality • Usage per channel and viewer density • VoD concurrency, channel changes • User Quality of Experience

  31. “IPTV2”: SureWest • Improved integration • Emerging standards • Next-Gen STBs • Improved compression • Improved QoS • Improved security • Interactive features

  32. IPTV Work in Progress • Home networking solutions • Ability to utilize existing home wiring • Wireless • Next-Gen STBs • SD, HD, PVR, Gateways • Content • Interactive applications

  33. Multimedia Home Networking Taxonomy TR-069: WAN-side CPE Mgmt WT-135: STB Object model Remote Mgmt. WT-111: Remote Mgmt of home devices(TR-069 pass-thru) TR-064: LAN side CPE Mgmt User Interface Multimedia CPE UI Technologies: IPTV Browser, EPG, TV/PC Web Browser, Video Search and Navigation Network Connected Multimedia CPE: IP STB, DVR, Home Gateway, Media Bridges, PC/Laptop, Media Server, Gaming Console, Etc. (Other Critical Technologies: MPEG-4 Decoders, DRM S/W) Home Devices HPNAv3 MoCA Proprietary IEEE 802.3 HomePlug AV Proprietary (UPA) IEEE 802.11x Standard/ Technology HPNAv3 Ethernet Cable (CAT-5,6) Coaxial Cable (RG6, RG59) Physical Medium Twisted Pair Phoneline Electrical Powerline Air Access Network Copper and/or Fiber Infrastructure: ADSL2plus, VDSL2, FTTx (Home Networking WAN Interfaces Integrated into NID and/or ONT)

  34. Thank You! Q&A

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