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A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong

A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong. Paul Yip. Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong. Outlines. An overview of the population and marriage distribution

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A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong

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  1. A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong Paul Yip Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong

  2. Outlines • An overview of the population and marriage distribution • An analysis of Total fertility rate (the number babies born to a woman over the child bearing period) • Opportunities and challenges

  3. Population size of Hong Kong SAR

  4. Number of births and TFRs of HK, 1961 - 2004

  5. Net nuptiality (female), Hong Kong, 1981 and 2001

  6. Age-specific fertility rates of Hong Kong, 1971-2004

  7. Percentage distribution of live births by order of live birth, 1981-2003

  8. Total marital fertility rates • The TMFR depends on age of marriage • Overall, the TMFR has also decreased for the past 2 decades • In 2001, the TMFR for resident women was around 2 (close to the replacement level), given that they got married at 20 • However, the figure would shrink to 1.6 if they got married at 25

  9. Marriage age postponement

  10. Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong (1)

  11. Assuming the 2001 marriage pattern prevails, it is projected that about 29.7% of males and 24% of female would remain single when they reach 40

  12. Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong (2)

  13. Total marital fertility rates by age of marriage in Hong Kong, 1981 - 2001

  14. Total marital fertility rates of Hong Kong by age of getting married, 2001

  15. Live births of Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 - 2004

  16. Proportions of live births in Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 – 2004

  17. Number of live births in Hong Kong by residence of mothers, 1981 - 2003

  18. Reasons for decline of TFR • Reduction on marital fertility rate • Increase in the number of spinsterhood • Late marriage (median age on first marriage: 30 males and 27 females) • Imbalance of the supply and demand (bachelors vs. spinsters) about 90,000 of women (age 20-44) outnumbers men (25-49)

  19. WHY? A study on Barriers to Fertility for married couples • Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP) study by the Family Planning Association • A similar study entitled “Barriers on Fertility” Yip, Lee and Lam, (2002) The three major concerns: 1. Unfavorable Economic condition 2. Unsatisfactorily Education service 3. Individual preference.

  20. Number of spinsterhood is increasing

  21. Proportion of ever married persons

  22. Fertility • Do we have a problem? Yes! • Is it a tempo problem? No!

  23. Speed and Magnitude of the reduction of the Fertility • It is the speed and the magnitude of the reduction of the fertility rate,

  24. What can we learn from the overseas countries • Different measures have been implemented in many countries which have experienced low fertility (i.e. Australia, France, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Sweden and USA) that inhibit fertility decline. • Are they relevant in Hong Kong?

  25. Total fertility rates of Hong Kong andselected low fertility economies, 1995 – 2002

  26. Window closes earlier when the age truncating fortotal dependency ratio changed Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

  27. The challenges: Quantity vs Quality • How to revert the low fertility: • Replacement Migration: • Healthy Population:

  28. Low fertility • About 60% reduction is due to change of marital distribution rather than the reduction of marital fertility rate • Promoting fertility: CS suggested to have three. Due to the late marriage, they might not be able to catch up (1st order of birth 24.8 in 1981 to 29.8 in 2003) • Engage the newborns from Mainland born mothers in Hong Kong. (Of course, solve the critical staff problem first)

  29. Replacement migration • About more than 80% of the population growth from migration. • The new comers rejuvenate and inject new blood into the community. • They are not coming (38100 one-way permit holders in 2004). • Impact on the labour force: postponement of the retirement age. • Successful experience in Shanghai about 30% are newly migrants

  30. Population pyramid of Hong Kong 1976, 2003 and 2033

  31. Replacement Migration: slow down ageing

  32. Healthy Population • Life-long health promotion and practice • Healthy life style. • Prevention: to prevent unnecessary health cost: for example, smoking and attempted or completed suicides

  33. To remove the obstacles for getting married and bearing babies Economic and Financial impact is a real concern. • A community consensus is needed. • How much the community is willing to pay for it? A higher tax?

  34. Discussions • Social Responsibility and Individual choice? • Someone has to pay for it. No free lunch!

  35. Time to Act Now Analogy of a clock: • Second arm (politics) • Minute arm (economic policy) • Hour arm (demography policy)

  36. Thank you

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