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Get Out the Vote: Campaign Strategy

Get Out the Vote: Campaign Strategy. Two more points about turnout!. What predicts variation in turnout from election to election in the US? What predicts cross-national variation in turnout?. In any given election, why might more people turn out?. High media coverage Significant office

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Get Out the Vote: Campaign Strategy

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  1. Get Out the Vote:Campaign Strategy

  2. Two more points about turnout! • What predicts variation in turnout from election to election in the US? • What predicts cross-national variation in turnout?

  3. In any given election, why might more people turn out? • High media coverage • Significant office • Important issues • Attractive candidates • Competitive race

  4. Why Americans Don’t Vote(compared to people in other democracies) • Alienation?

  5. Is trust the explanation?

  6. Responses to surveys about trust in government, voters & nonvoters

  7. Why Americans Don’t Vote • Alienation? (No) • More frequent elections

  8. Voter turnout, presidential and midterm elections 1960-1998

  9. Why Americans Don’t Vote • Alienation? (No) • More frequent elections • Registration laws

  10. How can parties, groups, and candidate campaigns encourage people to vote who might not otherwise vote?

  11. Green and Gerber • Methods? • Experimental design: random assignment • Door to door canvassing • Weekend days, 4 weeks before election • Paid canvassers, different races

  12. Green and Gerber’s methods • Random assignment experiments • CT congressional and state elections 1998 • New Jersey State Assembly Race 1999 • CT Mayoral Campaign 1999 • Multi city presidential election study 2000 • Multi city local elections 2001

  13. Green and Gerber • Methods? • Benefits of experimental design? • Controls for other individual characteristics • Can tell whether treatment itself has an effect!

  14. Green and Gerber • Methods? • Benefits of experimental design? • How did they try to motivate people?

  15. Appeals: P(V) = PB + D – C • By voting, you provide evidence that your neighborhood is politically active, which will increase its political clout.(neighborhood solidarity) • Voting is your civic duty • The election is close, and there is a chance your vote might make the difference. • There is an election coming…

  16. Green and Gerber: Findings • Nonpartisans more affected by treatment

  17. Green and Gerber’s methods

  18. Green and Gerber’s methods

  19. Green and Gerber’s methods

  20. Green and Gerber’s methods

  21. Green and Gerber • Is it an efficient way to increase turnout? $10/hour, 10 contacts an hour, 6% return $16 per new voter?

  22. Real World Implications • The Bush Campaign: Amway model • America Coming Together

  23. Republicans can do social science? • Karl Rove’s 72 hour Task Force • 2000 analysis • 2001 experiment • 2002 successes • 2004 Ohio

  24. What could you do to increase turnout? • Through public policy? • For a particular candidate?

  25. How to increase turnout • Face to face contacts • Focus on irregular voters • Make them feel their vote makes a difference (down-ballot???) • Emphasize community solidarity • Provide them with polling place information

  26. Suppressing turnout • What could you do to keep people from coming to the polls? • Public policy? • Campaign strategy?

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