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The changing parameters of defence equipment projects

The changing parameters of defence equipment projects. Professor Trevor Taylor t.taylor@cranfield.ac.uk Tel. 01793 785286 Department of Defence Management and Security Analysis Cranfield University at Shrivenham. Through Life Capability Management. The growth of UK MoD management ambition

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The changing parameters of defence equipment projects

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  1. The changing parameters of defence equipment projects Professor Trevor Taylor t.taylor@cranfield.ac.uk Tel. 01793 785286 Department of Defence Management and Security Analysis Cranfield University at Shrivenham

  2. Through Life Capability Management • The growth of UK MoD management ambition • Key role of the ECC

  3. Why TLCM? • To manage better the defence budget • Avoid unaffordable commitments • Optimise use of funds

  4. Why TLCM? • To manage better the defence budget • Avoid unaffordable commitments • Optimise use of funds • Capability based thought as a replacement for threat-based acquisition of Cold War • Systematic, ‘engineering’ thought

  5. Why TLCM? • To manage better the defence budget • Avoid unaffordable commitments • Optimise use of funds • Capability based thought as a replacement for threat-based acquisition of Cold War • Systematic, ‘engineering thinking • Problems with introduction of recent ‘disruptive’ equipments

  6. Emerging properties of TLCM • Slower rate of introduction of innovative systems • Military conservatism • Pierce: the need to hide innovation in defence until a strong base has been built • Increased management demands of new technology • ‘’technology did not simplify war, as contemporary ssuperstitiion now claims: is made it exponentially more complex. Each new scientific development, each new weapon system …. Demand ever greater tactical, technical and logistical expertise’ (Knox & Murray)

  7. Emerging properties of TLCM • Slower rate of introduction of innovative systems • Military conservatism • Pierce: the need to hide innovation in defence until a strong base has been built • Increased management demands of new technology • ‘’technology did not simplify war, as contemporary ssuperstitiion now claims: is made it exponentially more complex. Each new scientific development, each new weapon system …. Demand ever greater tactical, technical and logistical expertise’ (Knox & Murray) • ECC and single service friction • ‘planners tend to mortgage the future for the present and operators tend to mortgage the future for the present’ (Smith & Gerstein)

  8. Challenges of TLCM • An eight-dimensional package to be managed over 30 years, with each dimension evolving over time • Linking equipment-based projects to generate a network • At the same time as sustaining defence industrial capability

  9. Three uncomfortable bedfellows? • The optimism of MoD that projects can be coherently managed in a programme • MoD’s Capability Management Handbook • OGC’s Managing Successful Programmes

  10. Three uncomfortable bedfellows? • The optimism of MoD that projects can be coherently managed in a programme • TLCM seems to qualify as a complex activity • Beyond the understanding of any simple person • Systems terms • External environment changes constantly • Significant number of parts within the system • Internal parts change significantly over time, causing change elsewhere in the system • Consequences of changes very hard to predict

  11. Three uncomfortable bedfellows • The optimism of MoD that projects can be coherently managed in a programme • TLCM seems to qualify as a complex activity • Complexity management theorists • Control is not easy/possible • Complex systems and ‘irregular patterns of behaviour that cannot be reduced in any simple way to the parts of which any of them are controlled’ (Stacey, Griffith & Shaw) • ‘the danger is to expect too much from those practising the art of systems integration’ (Sapolsky) • ‘the iron law of unexpected consequences is at work in the Pentagon. No matter what you do or how well you think it through, coordinate and implement the decisions, you will find that months or years later the final result will be different in some ways from what you or your bosses intended’ (Smith & Gerstein).

  12. The more we know about project management, the longer defence projects take??? Unfair TLCM about the reduction of complexity so that defined relationships among equipment performance and LoDs can be established, i.e. so that project and programme management can then come into their own Conclusion Organisation Doctrine Infrastructure Information Training Equipment People Support

  13. Early TLCM: Pre-programme management Ability to maintain good relationships Capacity to live with uncertainty Capacity to make individual decisions in light of circumstances of the moment Conclusion

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