Arab Governments: The Quest for Security

1. Arab Governments:The Quest for Security

2. Lecturer—Lieutenant Colonel Mike Meyer • Undergrad. Degree —Latin American History • Masters—Nat. Sec. Affairs (Mid-East) and Arabic • Middle East and Political Military Affairs Specialist • Intelligence Officer—Aviation and Political Affairs • Analyst and Briefer for Commander, USCENTCOM • Political Advisor to Commander, USCENTAF • Air Attaché, U.S. Embassy, Damascus, Syria • AF Recruiting Squadron Commander, Maxwell AFB Bagram Air Base Afghanistan Reminders of the Regime Baghdad, Iraq Tomb of Salah Al-Din Damascus, Syria At the Pyramids Giza, Egypt With A Syrian Contact Damascus, Syria

3. Agenda • Common Characteristics of Security-Conscious Arab States • What Means Do Arab States Employ to Ensure Security? • What are the Implications for the Region?

4. No Truly Free Arab Countries • 0 of 22 Arab Governments are Truly Freely Elected • UN Human Development Report, 2002, Identifies 3 Deficit Areas: • Freedom, Knowledge, and Women’s Participation • Assumption of Power and Governance Based on Patronage and Loyalty • Contradicts Trend of Democratization in Other Parts of Developing World During the Past Few Decades—L. America, Africa, Far East, E. Europe • Syria: Freedom House--7/7 Political Rights; 7/7 Civil Rights • Pres. Bashar Al-Asad Confirmed by Referendum; Son of Hafiz Al-Asad • Constitution Changed Overnight in Wake of Father’s Death • Parliament is Merely a Rubber Stamp • Egypt: 6/7 Political and Civil Rights • President Mubarak in Power Since 1981 • No True Opposition Allowed

5. Saudi Arabia: 7/7 Pol. and 7/7 Civ. Rights • Saud Family has Ruled Monarchy since 1932 • No Parliament and 90-member, appointed Consultative Council • No Political Parties Allowed • Qatar: 6/7 Pol. and 6/7 Civ. Rights • Current Ruler Overthrew Father in 1995 • Prime Minister from Same Family • No Parliament and 35-member, appointed Cons. Council • Jordan: 6/7 Pol. and 5/7 Civ. Rights • Monarchy with Succession From Father to Son • 2 Chambers of Parliament, One of which is Elected • Political Parties are Allowed with Limited Participation • Few Bright Spots—Limited Political Liberalization: Morocco, Bahrain, and Kuwait • Jury Still Out on Iraq, but Progress is Being Made—Only Because the Coalition Overthrew Saddam and is Present. Key will be Whether Populace will Put Up with Turbulence Associated w/ Lack of Security as Democratic Processes are Institutionalized

6. Common Characteristics of Security Conscious Arab States • With Exception of Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories, Arab States Remarkably Stable For Three Decades + : • King Hussein, Jordan, More than 40 Years • Hafiz Al-Asad, Syria, 30 Years • Hosni Mubarak, Egypt, 23 Years • Saddam Hussein, Iraq, Almost 25 Years • Authoritarian Governments Dominate the Arab World • Many Leaders Live in Fear • Rulers Fear Political Reform as a Catalyst for Instability • Arab Countries are Often Essentially Police States with Relatively Large Security Services and Militaries—Armed Forces are Not Servants of the People, But Served by the People (Corruption) • Despite Rich Cultural Composition and Histories, Civil Society is Often Stifled or Closely Monitored • Large Portions or Majority of Population Often Cut Out or Impoverished—No Vehicles for Upward Mobility

7. What Means Do Arab States Employ to Ensure Security? • Co-opting and Promoting Particular (and often Minority) Ethnic Groups, as well as Attaining the Loyalty of Key Tribes • Syria—Alawis from the Coastal Mountains • Iraq—Sunnis from the Sunni Triangle/Tikritis • Jordan—Bedouin Families from East Bank • Controlled Demonstrations and Protests— Pressure Valves • Promotion of “Military” Societies—Most Arab Leaders Either Rose Up through the Military or Closely Identify Themselves with the Military • Numerous and Overlapping Intelligence Agencies—More Eyes the Better! • Dual Militaries with Simultaneous External Defense and Internal Protection Missions. In Fact, #1 Mission is Actually Regime Protection

8. Implications for the Region • Economic: • Unless Oil/Natural Gas Revenues High, Development is Stifled As Bright Young People Emigrate or Are Forced to Settle for Jobs Beneath Capabilities • Welfare States Like Saudi Arabia are Threatened by a Lack of Opportunity • Defense Budgets are Disproportionately High, Taking Money From Civilian Industry • Military/Security: • Sycophants, Often from Particular Ethnic Groups, Advance Before Capable Leaders • Unit Morale is Negatively Affected as Personnel are “Watched” • Centralized Control Slows Speed at which Operations are Executed • Jealousies Hurt Cooperation Between Individual Services • Leaders Chase High-Profile Military Items vs. Most Practical Ones • Social/Political: • Political Cronies and Loyalist Leaches Attain High-Level Positions • Due to a Lack of Legal Outlets for Frustration, Extremism on the Rise • Militant Islam on the Rise • More and More Band-Aid Fixes Needed to Hold Together Societies