The Refinement of Terror Behavioral Heuristics Through Hybrid Modeling

1. The Refinement of Terror Behavioral Heuristics Through Hybrid Modeling Serious Play Conference George Mason University July 2018 Dan Little

2. Assumptions About Today’s Audience Assumptions About Today’s Audience 10 % 10 % 30 % 50 % Know Everything Earnestly Searching Curious Serendipity

3. The Refinement of Terror Behavioral The Refinement of Terror Behavioral Heuristics Through Through Hybrid Hybrid Modeling Heuristics Modeling Heuristics heuristic techniques: involving or serving as an aid to learning, discovery, or problem-solving by experimental and especially trial-and-error methods a heuristic assumption: relating to exploratory problem-solving techniques that utilize self-educating techniques (such as the evaluation of feedback) to improve performance a heuristic computer program Hybrid 1 : an offspring of two animals or plants of different races, breeds, varieties, species, or genera (e.g., two roses) 2 : a person whose background is a blend of two diverse cultures or traditions 3 a : something heterogeneous in origin or composition : composite hybrids of complementary DNA and RNA strands (e.g., architectural periods) b : something (such as a power plant, vehicle, or electronic circuit) that has two different types of components performing essentially the same function (e.g., a car model) Courtesy of Merriam-Webster Online: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/

4. Bottom Bottom- -Line Up Line Up- -Front Front I will explain how our intuitions about known organizational behavior within terror organizations might be skewed due a lack of awareness of ‘hybrid behavioral models’

5. The Epiphany Regarding the Existence of Hybrid Behavioral Models The Epiphany Regarding the Existence of Hybrid Behavioral Models My New Address Terror & OCG Supply Chains My Old Address Modeling & Simulation/Gaming Fidelity 1. The identification of key parameters for a system and the degree to which the aggregate of those parameters match a baseline system. The components of fidelity include functional, physical, psychological, tactile, visual, and wallpaper. 2. The degree to which the representation within a simulation is similar to a real-world object, feature, or condition in a measurable or perceived manner. 3. The accuracy of the representation when compared to the real world. Bomb-Making Materials (IED & Proliferation) Weapons People MMOGs Transit Safe Houses Agent-Based Simulation Identification HSEEP Simulation Narcotics DoD M&S Glossary, October 1, 2011 DoD L-V-C Simulation Money-Laundering

6. Background Background Krebs, V. (2002). Mapping Networks of Terrorist Cells, Connections 24(3): 43-52 [online], http://www.orgnet.com/MappingTerroristNetworks.pdf

7. Key Differences Between Terror and Key Differences Between Terror and Organized Criminal Networks Organized Criminal Networks Organized Crime Terror • • Apolitical (Means to an End – Profitability) Political (Means to an End – Changing Status Quo) • • Mechanisms of corruption (Ethnicities & culture that enables transaction) Limitations of assimilating (Contained Communities) • • Cross-ethnic/cultural transactions (Once it changes hands, it’s theirs) Specific Node-to-node travel (Different countries, same ethnicity/culture/religion) How would the rule-sets change if specific nodes of the illicit supply chain were owned and maintained by someone that was radicalized? In other words, what if someone was at the top hierarchy for both? How would you model it?

8. Schools of Thought on Behavioral Modeling Schools of Thought on Behavioral Modeling Game Theory Agent-Based Rational Actor Object-Based Mathematical Psychology Structural-Functionalism Behavioral Psychology Discourse Analysis Bureaucratic Politics Jungian Psychology

9. Key Assumptions Key Assumptions  Despite individual and organizational investment, the issue is not so much the lens of choice, it is when core assumptions are either absent (Hit-and-Miss empirics) or skewed to the point of being tangential (The Law of Diminishing Returns)  Despite the findings of 9-11, the stove-piping between law enforcement-military-intelligence circles can still operate at cross-purposes, i.e., motivations, databases, linkages, etc.  A ‘hybrid actor’ will operate from two distinct rule-sets: • The radical side is not allowed to supersede the supply chain 1) Explains the arms-length distance of Lone Wolf – Social Media) 2) Corruption within boundaries is critical for business purposes; nation-state complicity (diplomatic immunity, intelligence, etc.) is essential to facilitate politically-motivated ends. (AQ Khan Network, International Programs, Charitable Foundations, etc.) 1. A)

10. A Snapshot in Time A Snapshot in Time Organized Crime Group Narcotics Terror Access Weapons Access Nuclear Source Access Destinations Nigerian Cocaine, Heroin Boko Haram/ Al Qaeda Africa, CIS Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Malawi, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Russia China, Europe, United States Central Asian Heroin Afghanistan Taliban/ISIS CIS Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Caucasus, Turkey, Europe Georgian Heroin Chechen CIS Georgia, Russia Europe Russian Heroin Chechen CIS Russia Europe Baltic Heroin Afghanistan Taliban/ISIS CIS Georgia, Russia Europe Italian Synthetic ETA/Shining Path Middle East, Europe Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China All have access to raw materials used in proliferation

11. An Example of Both

12. An Organized Criminal Morphing into a Hybrid Actor An Organized Criminal Morphing into a Hybrid Actor Dawood Dawood Ibrahim: Runs 75% of heroin supply routes from Afghanistan Godfather: Karachi, Mumbai, Malaysia, Singapore & Dubai Bailed out Central Bank in 2000 Bin Laden paid Ibrahim to transit through Afg-Pak borders Hawala Financial Empire ‘Bollywood’ Daniel Pearl went to find out and was beheaded by KSM Alleges that Ibrahim pays ISI $1B annually • A.Q. Khan • Mumbai bombing (David Coleman Headley) • Runs his own terror group: Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) Gilbert King (2004) , The Most Dangerous Man in the World, Chamberlain Bros.: New York

13. Matching Criminal Profiles

14. Criminal Criminal Archtypes Archtypes Aslan Usoyen aka. Ded Hassan Kurdish Yazidi started in Georgia Grew to Moscow, Ural, Siberia, Krasnodor, Uzbekistan “Boss of Bosses” (Assassinated Moscow – 2013) Kamchy Kolbaev Brothers’ Circle-Thief-in-Law (over Central Asia) Former Soviet Union, UAE Designated by Pres. Obama – 2011 under Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation

15. Similarities and Differences Similarities and Differences Dawood Ibrahim Kamchy Kolbaev

16. Junior Criminal Backgrounds Lack the Capacity to be Hybrid Actors Junior Criminal Backgrounds Lack the Capacity to be Hybrid Actors Taliban-Central Asia- Caucasus-Europe Al Qaeda Jose Padilla Morten Storm Mr. Baltic Distributor Partial OCG delivery through Caucasus Resumes custody in Eastern Europe Distribution in UK and Ireland Accepts proceeds in the Baltics Latin Kings – Chicago Prison Conversion Dirty Bomb Training – Lahore, Pakistan ‘Trial Member’ Bandidos – Denmark Converted prior to prison Radicalization in England before studying in Yemen Assassination of Awlaki* Shortfalls of all three profiles Access (Direct, Equally distributed across a large span), Influence (Associates, Corruption), Autonomy (Separation of religious practice and business), Capacity (Subordinates, Commodities, Liquidity) *http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/10/20/al- qaeda-terror-leader-dined-pentagon-months.html

17. It was Tried by Bin Laden/Al Qaeda in South Eastern Europe It was Tried by Bin Laden/Al Qaeda in South Eastern Europe Bosnian Arms embargo (Gordon, 1992).  1992:  Iran and Saudi Arabia (Andreas, 2004)  Sudan (Andreas, 2004) (Coll, 2008)  1992-1995: Estimates vary from 4,000 - 5,000 fighters from the Afghan War (Gunaratna, 2003) (Chandler and Gunaratna, 2007)  Training grounds for first-time mujahidin (Gerges, 2006)  Training provided by same ex-U.S. Special Forces soldier in Afghanistan (Gunaratna, 2003)  Arms trafficking was assisted by Malaysian and Turkish UNPROFOR (Andreas, 2004)  ISI Located with UNPROFOR’s Pakistani forces (Chandler and Gunaratna, 2007) What Happened Elsewhere (1993):  World Trade Center Bombing (Podhoretz, 2007)  Assassination plot against George H.W. Bush (Podhoretz, 2007)  Mumbai Stock Exchange explosions (King, 2004)  Bin Laden sets up charitable organizations in neighboring Albania (Gunaratna, 2003: 13, 177) (Sullivan, 2004: 183)

18. It was Tried by Bin Laden/Al Qaeda in South Eastern Europe It was Tried by Bin Laden/Al Qaeda in South Eastern Europe Meanwhile Back in Bosnia:  1996:  Narcotics and Human trafficking replaced weapons (Glenny, 2008) (Cockayne and Lupel, 2009)  Fighters expelled by Dayton, those that married granted citizenship (Chandler and Gunaratna, 2007) Kosovo Conflict:  1998:  Ultimatum given to KLA HQ in Albania (Sullivan, 2004)  Did not want to jeopardize prospects for independence (Bergen, 2002)  April: AQ Leader told by KLA Supreme Council he wasn’t needed (Sullivan, 2004)  June: AQ Translator murdered (Sullivan, 2004)  August: First AQ attack at American Embassy in Albania (Sullivan, 2004)  September: Hundreds of Iranian fighters arrive in Albania. Additional 7,000 veterans from Afghanistan and Bosnia arrive under the leadership of Muhammad al Zawahiri (Ayman’s brother) (Bodansky, 2001)  Sweep in Albania by Albanian State Security and CIA (Sullivan, 2004) What Happened Elsewhere (1994):  Bin Laden continues setting up charitable organizations in neighboring Albania (Gunaratna, 2003) (Sullivan, 2004)  Saudis attempt to assassinate Bin Laden in Sudan. Ex-U.S. Special Forces soldier trains new bodyguards (Gunaratna, 2003) (Scheuer 2006)  Taliban on offensive to seizes power in Afghanistan (King, 2004)

19. A Terrorist Within the Hierarchy can Morph into a Hybrid Actor A Terrorist Within the Hierarchy can Morph into a Hybrid Actor  Naznacheniya) – Special Forces, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Interior (Routes for Heroin, Weapons, IEDs) Gulmorod Halimov (ISIS) Commanded OMON (Otryad Mobilny Osobogo  Made name for himself fighting the Taliban and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan  Joins Presidential detail and receives training from Russian Spetnatz (1997-1998), the U.S. Army in Louisiana (2003) and later by Blackwater (2008)  Defected with members of his cadre to ISIS in Iraq. Made video promising to return to Central Asia.  Given $70 million by ISIS as seed money.  Knows the terrain and who he fought in the autonomous border regions of Afghanistan  Purpose is to take over the heroin nodes by splitting Taliban loyalty.  Fake Kyrgyz passports recovered by raid on ISIS before attack on Russian airbase in Kant.  Former parliamentarian (Kunakunov) implicated with supplying them weapons and money. Not known for extremism but is associated with Organized Crime. Oskonbaeva and Little (2015) , Revealing ISIS’ Grand Strategy: Mergers, Acquisitions and the Hostile Takeover of the Taliban, RIEAS, (http://www.rieas.gr/images/middleeast/eurasia/eurasian21.pdf)

20. What About the United States?

21. The Limitations Posed by Sorting Through Lone Wolves The Limitations Posed by Sorting Through Lone Wolves When Who Where Info Misc. Hesham Muhammad Hadayet 4 July 2002 El Al ticket counter - LAX Green Card Holder from Egypt Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad Recruiting Office – Little Rock, AR 1 June 2009 American convert that lived in Yemen AQ Corr. w/ AQ (Internet) 5 November 2009 Major Nidal Hassan Fort Hood, TX American Permanent Resident/ Chechen, lived in Kyrgyzstan & Dagestan AQ 15 April 2013 Tsarnaev Bros. Boston Marathon (Internet) Marine Corps Recruiting Office/Naval Reserve Ctr, Chattanooga, TN Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez 16 July 2015 American born in Kuwait Internet Syed Rizwan Farook & Tasheen Malik American/Pakistani married in Saudi Arabia 15 December 2015 San Bernadino, CA Internet ISIS 12 June 2016 Omar Mateen Orlando, FL Afghan born in America (Internet) 31 October 2017 Sayfullo Saipov New York City Permanent Resident from Uzbekistan ISIS theguardian, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/01/america-since-911-terrorist-attacks-linked-to-the-war-on-terror

22. The Limitations Posed by Sorting Through Lone Wolves The Limitations Posed by Sorting Through Lone Wolves When Who Where Info Misc. Hesham Muhammad Hadayet 4 July 2002 El Al ticket counter - LAX Green Card Holder from Egypt Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad Recruiting Office – Little Rock, AR 1 June 2009 American convert that lived in Yemen AQ Corr. w/ AQ (Internet) 5 November 2009 Major Nidal Hassan Fort Hood, TX American Permanent Resident/ Chechen, lived in Kyrgyzstan & Dagestan AQ 15 April 2013 Tsarnaev Bros. Boston Marathon (Internet) Marine Corps Recruiting Office/Naval Reserve Ctr, Chattanooga, TN Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez 16 July 2015 American born in Kuwait Internet Syed Rizwan Farook & Tasheen Malik American/Pakistani married in Saudi Arabia 15 December 2015 San Bernadino, CA Internet ISIS 12 June 2016 Omar Mateen Orlando, FL Afghan born in America (Internet) 31 October 2017 Sayfullo Saipov New York City Permanent Resident from Uzbekistan ISIS theguardian, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/01/america-since-911-terrorist-attacks-linked-to-the-war-on-terror

23. The Potential for Hybrid Activity to Exist in the United States One Terror Example

24. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2002/0 6/23/man-convicted-of-using-smuggling-to-fund- hezbollah/1ce31915-2a41-40ea-b4ef- 45b95652d700/?utm_term=.4104bb0fea32

25. The Potential for Hybrid Activity to Exist in the United States One Criminal Example

26. Nigeria Nigeria- -Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan- -Afghanistan Afghanistan- -United States United States

27. The ‘a ha’ Moment The ‘a ha’ Moment The Reason We Didn’t Talk About Hybrid Modeling Before Was Because it Happened in America Before 9-11

28. How a Hybrid Entity Almost Went Nation How a Hybrid Entity Almost Went Nation- -wide in the U.S. wide in the U.S. Mid-60s:  Co-Founder Jeff Fort forms a coalition of 21 street gang with 5,000 members in Chicago (Harris, 2004) 1967:  The Grassroots Independent Voters of Illinois (aka Black Stone Rangers) takes in a $1 million Federal grant, as well as loans and grants from private institutions (Jacobs, 1978) (Harris 2004) 1968:  Jeff Fort takes over leadership when Eugene Hairston sent to prison. Completes takeover of vice on the South Side (Schatzberg and Kelly, 1987) (Austin, 2006) 1969:  Subpoenaed to appear before the Senate. Contempt of Congress sent Fort to prison (McPherson, 1969) https://vault.fbi.gov/el-rukn/el-rukn-part-1-of-5/view http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1991-09-08/news/9103070697_1_el-rukns-rukn-organization-jeff-fort

29. How a Hybrid Entity Almost Went Nation How a Hybrid Entity Almost Went Nation- -wide in the U.S. wide in the U.S. Mid-70s:  Converts to Islam while incarcerated at Fort Leavenworth  Changes name of gang to ‘El Rukn’ (‘The Foundation’) 1976:  Jeff Fort emerges from prison 1983:  Sentenced to prison for drug trafficking charges 1987:  Convicted for conspiring to commit acts of terror in the U.S. on behalf of Libyan Government. Sitting in Supermax, Florence, CO https://vault.fbi.gov/el-rukn/el-rukn-part-1-of-5/view http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1991-09-08/news/9103070697_1_el-rukns-rukn-organization-jeff-fort

30. The Indictment 1986 http://www.nytimes.com/1986/10/31/us/4-in-chicago-gang-indicted-in-libyan-terror-plot.html?pagewanted=print

31. Conclusion Conclusion  If placed near the top of a criminal hierarchy, a hybrid actor can maintain both:  ‘Arms length’ with lone wolves and terror cells while at the same time own the instruments of public corruption.  The profile of a hybrid actor requires:     Access (Direct, Equally distributed across a large span, i.e., multiple borders) Influence (Associates, Corruption), Autonomy (Separation of religious practice and business, Piety and practice on their terms) Capacity (Subordinates, Commodities, Liquidity)  critical nodes, routes and infrastructure used by organized crime however… Using the examples of Ibrahim, Bin Laden and Halimov, a charismatic person with the right resources can take over the  The likelihood of success increases if it appears to be a pure ‘criminal’ play

32. Once upon a time…. It Almost Happened in America