freight trends robert mulholland fhwa office of freight management and operations

1. Freight Trends

3. Freight Sector Overview America is the world’s no. 1 consumer of goods. Much manufacturing is moving overseas, international freight shipments are increasing. International freight must be routed through a finite number of gateways. The prevailing business logistics model relies heavily on transportation for just-in-time delivery. Made-to-order factory-to-consumer services necessitate more, smaller shipments. Freight volume and trip length are growing over all modes for both domestic and international freight. We expect a nearly 70 percent increase in freight volume (by weight) in the first two decades of the 21st century.

4. Transportation Network Overview Traffic volume is on the rise. The highway network is running out of capacity. Railroads are at or near capacity. Neither water transport nor pipelines offer alternatives for many commodities and corridors. The modal networks remain largely independent. Road congestion has become the norm in many areas.

5. Volume and Capacity Trends

6. Freight’s Influence How does the movement of freight affect the transportation system? Contributions to Congestion System-wide Increase Commercial trucks account for 8% of highway VMT. Formation of Bottlenecks Domestic Hubs (e.g., Chicago) International Gateways (e.g., LA/LB) Infrastructure Degradation More Weight = Much More Damage Increased VMT

7. Freight’s Response How does the transportation system affect freight movement? Mode and Route Choice Operating Costs Time and Reliability Scale Economies (e.g., 40-53 drays) Facility Location (and Relocation) JIT Fleet and Labor Structure Time of Day POLA/POLB example

8. The Gateway Cost-Benefit Problem There is a severe geographic imbalance between the costs and benefits associated with freight movement. Benefits accrue nationally E.g., Walmart shoppers Costs accrue locally E.g., Port neighbors

9. There are a large number of trucks today

10. There are a growing number of trucks in our future

11. Where do we get the maps and the underlying numbers? Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) Combines freight area-to-area flows by all modes, truck counts, and capacity characteristics to estimate freight flows over the freight transportation network in 1998, 2010, and 2020 Truck counts and highway characteristics from HPMS FAF (v1): Freight Flows from Commodity Flow Survey and commercial sources FAF (v2): Freight Flows from Commodity Flow Survey and publicly releasable sources – Available in 2006. Commodity-to-truckload conversions from Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey

12. 2020 congestion with trucks

13. 2020 congestion without trucks

14. Something Has to Give Are We at Odds with Ourselves? Freight is the engine that drives the economy. Freight throughput is vital to economic health Goods movement and productivity Transportation and Logistics jobs Concentrated freight traffic degrades air quality GHG Particulate Matter

15. Is there a Better Way to Move? More freight moves by truck than any other mode In 1998, trucks moved 77 percent of domestic freight tonnage. Many see alternative modes as an obvious solution If it were that simple it would be happening already. Railroad/Barge/Vessel/Pipeline Advantages: Lower unit costs, Reduced road congestion, Reduced diesel emissions Disadvantages/Obstacles: Shipment size minimum, Inflexible routing, Smaller network footprint, LOS (time and reliability,) Capacity constraint (Pricing power, Contractual commitments) “First/Last mile” often still must move by truck.

16. Operational Solutions Many problems can be solved or abated through operational improvements Electronic Tolling Extended gate hours PierPASS Engine Technology POLA Truck Modernization Program Idle-Free Corridors, Truck Stop Electrification EPA’s Smartway Transport Partnership Electronic Permitting Congestion Pricing

17. Making It Happen Change the Culture Like all people, truckers are creatures of habit. Longshoremen have lives too Speak the Language Make the business case Start at the top Coordinate the Effort Integrate the modal networks Government must act as a facilitator Provide the Tools Innovative Finance New Programs

18. Freight Policy, Data, and Analysis http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis Rolf Schmitt Policy, legislation, data programs Carol KeenanFreight Professional Development Program Rob MulhollandEconomic studies Joanne SedorFreight publications, environmental issues Tianjia TangFreight Analysis Framework, Freight Model Improvement Program Crystal JonesPerformance measures, border issues