Regional Skills Assessments

1. Regional Skills Assessments Glasgow Region December 2016

2. Introduction • An Introduction to Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs) • Key Data for the Glasgow Region • Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to RSAs

4. What are RSAs? • A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets • Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group (SLAED). • Purpose: • Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years 2017-2020 • Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses • Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills • Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning? • They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels. • They can be used to identify regional strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment at a regional level. • They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning. • They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do RSAs cover? • Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting • Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators • With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority • The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). • The data matrix is found here: https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/ • This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area.

8. Glasgow Region Overview • A diverse economy, the RSA area includes Glasgow City, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire • Benefiting from its central location at the hub of Scotland’s transport network with easy access to jobs and markets in the central belt, although parts of the region are more rural and remote • Benefiting from the successful transformation of the Glasgow economy to a service driven economy with a strong cultural and tourism offer and large health and education sectors • A region with considerable strengths but facing challenges to reduce concentrations of low income and workless households in some areas

9. Business Trends

10. Sector Trends and Specialisms Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Click here for explanation: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram

11. Population and Projections

12. Employment and Travel to Work Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or • with no fixed place of work. Also, location of employment for East Dunbartonshire refers to the Lanarkshire region; and East Renfrewshire refers to the West region

13. Workforce Trends Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

14. Unemployment and Participation

15. Qualifications and Skills

16. Skills Mismatches

17. Schools Modern Apprenticeships Education and Training

18. Further and Higher Education HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

19. Workforce Growth • Despite the forecast employment growth, improving productivity will become the key determining factor in increasing economic prosperity

20. Jobs and Skills Changes (1) Total employment (jobs) is forecast to rise by 0.4% per year over the 2016-24 period, twice the rate of 0.2% expected for Scotland. Such growth equates to 17,700 additional jobs in the area by 2024. Administrative & support and professional, scientific & technical activities are expected to account for over half of new jobs (10,400) in the area over the 2016-24 period. The construction sector is also expected to experience significant job creation (2,700 jobs). In contrast, jobs losses are expected within manufacturing (2,600 jobs) and public administration & defence (2,800 jobs). Total Employment Growth Glasgow Region Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), 2016-2024 2002-2015 2016-2024 Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics

21. Jobs and Skills Changes (2) Growth is expected across all occupations over the forecast period, with the exception of administrative and secretarial occupations, which is expected to see a decline (500 people). Professional (3,100 people) and elementary occupations (2,100 people) are forecast to see the biggest increases and growth is also expected in associate professional and technical, caring, leisure and other service, and sales and customer service occupations (1,600 people each). More modest growth is also expected in managers, directors and senior officials (900 people) and process, plant and machine operatives (400 people) across the 2016-2024 period. Glasgow Region Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), 2016-2024 Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics ‘000s

22. Jobs and Skills Changes (3) The majority of openings in Glasgow over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 59% of the 216,500 openings expected to be created between 2016 and 2024. The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, equivalent to 31% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. • Notes: • table uses total requirement (people) • totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table • Source: Oxford Economics

23. Jobs and Skills Changes (4) Replacement demand will result in over 204,200 openings within Glasgow region over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 11,900 openings between 2016-2024. However together with replacement demand, will result in 216,100 openings over this period. Openings will be highest within professional and elementary occupations. Combined these will account for over 40% of openings in the region. They each are expected to experience both expansion and replacement demand over the forecast. • Notes: • table uses total requirement (people) • totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table • Source: Oxford Economics

24. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

25. Glasgow Region: Key Implications (1) .

26. Glasgow region: Key Implications (2) .

27. Glasgow region: Key Implications (3) .

28. Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Sector Trends and Specialisms