Caryn Gay cg0853a@american eagle1.american/~cg0853a/ American University

1. Caryn Gay cg0853a@american.edu http://eagle1.american.edu/~cg0853a/ American University School of International Service International Affairs Statistics and Research Methods SIS-600.005 - Dr. Assen Assenov Socio-economic Dimensions of Trust in Romania

2. Research Question & Hypothesis Original Research Question What is the relationship between educational attainment for Roma and other socio-economic factors? Modified Research Question What is the relationship between the Romanian people’s trust in others and their level of education, age, opinion of ethnic diversity, and their level of income? Research Hypothesis Controlling for level of income, age, and opinion of ethnic diversity, a respondent with a higher level of education will have a greater level of trust in others.

3. Literature Review Current Attitudes Toward the Roma in Central Europe: A Report of Research with non-Roma and Roma Respondents World Bank Attitudinal Study (2005) Question: What are the drivers of attitudes and perceptions among the general population in the eight countries committed to the EU’s Decade of Roma Inclusion? Findings: Despite formation of national identity and pride in the eight countries analyzed, there was overall a high level of pessimism among both Roma and non-Roma communities. Avoiding the Dependency Trap: Regional Report, Central and Eastern Europe United Nations Development Program (2002) Question: Why do most attempts to integrate Roma communities into mainstream societies fail? What are the systemic causes of the problems faced by marginalized communities and by the Roma in particular? Findings: The countries will become successful members of the EU if the Roma (as well as other vulnerable groups) become integrated productively into their home societies, via employment, education and political participation.

4. Data Unit of study: Individuals in Romania Source: World Values Survey, Second and Fourth Waves (1995-98 and 2005-08) Nationally representative survey Over 3,000individuals surveyed Dependent variable Trust in People Nominal variable measured at the individual level Independent Variables Level of education (ordinal) Age (IR) Ethnic diversity (ordinal) Level of income (ordinal)

5. Descriptive Statistics – Trust Over Time We see that there was a very slight increase in the level of trust in Romania between the two survey waves. However, the level of trust remains very low.

6. Descriptive Statistics Using survey data from the second wave only (2005-2008)

7. Trust in People & Level of Education

8. Bivariate Analysis Using survey data from the second wave only (2005-2008) • ***= significant at .01 • **= significant at .05 • * = significant at .1

9. Probit Regression Analysis, Marginal Effects Dependent Variable: Trust in People 0 = Can’t be too careful 1 = Most people can be trusted Romanian individual’s level of trust decreases as their education increases.  Their level of trust increases as their age increases. Significance: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, ***p<0.001 Z > 1.96

10. Findings & Policy Implications Findings The Romanian people’s level of trust is affected by their levels of education and age: As their level of education increases, their trust in others decreases. As their age increases, their trust increases. Much of the data showed conflicting results (i.e., only 3 respondents self-identified as Roma while almost 50% reported living next to a Roma community member), which calls into question the reliability and representation of the sample data. Policy Implications The government needs to adopt policies that address the large levels of mistrust in the country, particularly in regards to the educational system. Better care needs to be taken to ensure that the survey sample is truly representative of the population.