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The IAV Community Self-organization Process: Aims and Progress So Far

The IAV Community Self-organization Process: Aims and Progress So Far. Thomas J. Wilbanks Oak Ridge National Laboratory USA. Workshop on IAV Community Coordination 8 January 2009. First, Some Familiar Background (I):.

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The IAV Community Self-organization Process: Aims and Progress So Far

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  1. The IAV Community Self-organization Process: Aims and Progress So Far Thomas J. Wilbanks Oak Ridge National Laboratory USA Workshop on IAV Community Coordination 8 January 2009

  2. First, Some Familiar Background (I): • The IAV research community is fundamentally different from the CCM/ESM and IAM communities: • Not grounded in a limited number of centers focused on large computer models, represented by consortia of those centers • Distributed (fragmented?) by sector, region, scale, and time frame • Often characterized by individual or small-group research • Usually starting from system sensitivities rather than scenario projections • Often preoccupied with the particular rather than the general – and a believer in the value of “local” knowledge 2 Presentation_name

  3. First, Some Familiar Background (II): • Historically dependent on IPCC WG II to provide a periodic structure and meeting place • Lack of coherence identified by the IAV breakout group at the Netherlands RCP meeting, September 2007, as a serious constraint on the ability of the IAV community to play an appropriately important role in climate change science, i.e.: • Who speaks for IAV knowledge and perspectives? • What does IAV have to say? • What does IAV want? 3 Presentation_name

  4. That IAV Meeting Defined a Need for the IAV Community to Take Steps to Organize Itself: • Recognizing that any structure must emerge bottom-up: no single person or entity has legitimacy to assert leadership • Recognizing that any structure must be sensitive to the wide variety of interests and agendas across the IAV community • Recognizing that the IAV community is playing “catch-up” compared with the CCM/ESM and IAM communities: lack of progress could very well mean under-representation of IAV knowledge and perspectives in climate change science 4 Presentation_name

  5. Several Steps Have Been Taken Since Then to Get Us to Where We Are Here in Boulder (I): • The Netherlands meeting was followed by: • The RCP report, which communicated a view of climate change as a “stool with three legs” • The workshop in Washington, DC, in March 2008 to consider directions for IAV research following AR 4 • Specific focus on the bottom-up self-organization challenge at the 2008 meeting of the Energy Modeling Forum in Snowmass, July-August, arising from needs of ESM and IAM researchers 5 Presentation_name

  6. Several Steps Have Been Taken Since Then to Get Us to Where We Are Here in Boulder (II): • To move gently toward bottom-up self-organization: • Message sent out August 29, 2008, to more than 90 colleagues in the international IAV community, inviting participation in a process of self-organization • About 40 responded positively with interest, thoughts, and some suggestions of others to contact and other activities for linkages • Second message sent on September 29, 2008 (resent on October 6), summarizing the messages from the response • Now have a self-identified list of about 50 IAV experts who want to be involved, including a number of centers 6 Presentation_name

  7. Here Is a Summary of the Summary (I): About possible foci for the IAV research community: Connecting with the IPCC new scenarios process, including connecting climate change scenarios with a risk/vulnerability management perspective Playing a leadership role in the development of the proposed new “library” of socioeconomic scenarios and story lines Strengthening the representation of adaptation in IPCC and other climate change science arenas Increasing attention to relationships between adaptation and mitigation 7 Presentation_name

  8. Here Is a Summary of the Summary (II): About how to move toward some sort of structure for channeling information, seeking community support, and representing our knowledge and interests: Determine who among the IAV community would like to be involved in the RCP/new scenarios process Identify who in IAV would like to use the new scenarios and what they would like to get from them Identify who would like to be involved in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and story lines Identify who would like to be involved in interactions with IPCC and others about climate change adaptation This meeting is an early step in these directions 8 Presentation_name

  9. Of Course, Needs for External Coordination Are Not the Only Reason for IAV Self-organization: Opportunities to address important generic issues, such as: Interactions between climate change and other drivers of change Possible “tipping points” where impacts go non-linear Interactions among various categories of impacts – e.g., energy, water, cities, health Needs to improve IAV science, such as: Issues about the quality of our data Issues about differences in the tools that we use (even for the same questions) Issues about how we address uncertainties But coordination needs are a valuable catalyst for mobilizing us to accomplish a great many things together 9 Presentation_name

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