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Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW). 2011 WRF Modeling Model Performance Evaluation Summary University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON ) June 19, 2014.

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Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

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  1. Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) 2011 WRF Modeling Model Performance Evaluation Summary University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) June 19, 2014

  2. 3SAQS WRF MPE Summary • Objective: Develop best possible regional meteorology database for annual 2011 air quality modeling • Nested 36/12/4-km WRF-ARW 3.5.1 with configuration optimized for the intermountain West • Single configuration across the entire year (no special wintertime version) • Standard and extended model performance evaluation metrics focused on the 4-km domain • MPE conclusion: 3SAQS 2011WRF application exhibited reasonably good model performance that was as good or better than other recent prognostic model applications used in air quality planning

  3. WRF Domain and Configuration • Standard (40N-97W) Lambert-Conformal Conic projection • CONUS 36km (165x129) • WestJump 12km (256x253) • 3SAQS 4km (301x361) • 37 layers to 50 mb (12m surface layer)

  4. Configuration Tests • First-order simulations on all three domains for January 1-7 and July 1-7, 2011 to test different configurations: • NAM vs ECMWF Initial and boundary conditions (ICBC) • 2006 NCLD vs USGS land-use land cover (LULC) data • Noah-YSU vs PX-ACM2 land surface/boundary layer schemes • Obs nudging coefficient and network sensitivities • Ultimately settled on the same configuration as WestJumpAQMS 2008 WRF

  5. Evaluation Approach • AMET used to evaluate surface temperatures, winds, and mixing ratios against MADIS observations • Wintertime evaluation of snow cover and snow depth • PRISM precipitation evaluations • Compared results to performance benchmarks (bias and error) for Western U.S. regional met modeling • Evaluation focused on seasonal performance in CO, UT, WY, and 4-km domain (average of all monitors within each area)

  6. Winter 2011 Performance • 2-m Temperatures • Slight cool bias across all stations in the 4-km domain (driven by CO, WY, NM) • Warm bias at UT stations in January exceeds performance benchmark of 1°K • January nighttime warm bias at UT stations as much as 5°K; likely indicates inability of WRF to simulation temperature inversions in complex terrain

  7. Winter 2011 Performance • Wind speed • Negative bias across all stations in the 4-km domain • Benchmark performance (0.5 m/s) missed in 4-km domain in January and February • Benchmark performance consistently missed in WY

  8. Winter 2011 Performance • Mixing Ratio • WRF is generally too wet in the winter months. • All states driven by high daytime biases • Biases within benchmark threshold of 1.0 g/kg

  9. Summer 2011 Performance • Temperature • The low/zero bias in the 4-km domain is resulting from a cancelling effect of biases across the domain • Biases within benchmark threshold of 1.0 K • WRF simulates the diurnal variability well but tends to be cool at night and warms too quickly after sunrise

  10. Summer 2011 Performance

  11. Summer 2011 Performance • Wind Speed • Negative bias throughout the three-state domain • Biases exceed the benchmark threshold in CO and WY • RMSE close to the benchmark threshold for most months

  12. Summer 2011 Performance • Mixing Ratio • WRF is generally too dry in the summer months • Biases within benchmark threshold of 1.0 g/kg • May indicate a known problem with WRF’s ability to simulate summertime convection

  13. WRF Monthly Performance Summaries2-m Temperature CO UT WY

  14. WRF Monthly Performance SummariesWind Speed CO UT WY

  15. WRF Monthly Performance SummariesMixing Ratio CO UT WY

  16. 3SAQS 2011 WRF MPE Winter Ozone • 2011 WRF simulation included several high winter ozone events in Upper Green River Basin (URGRB) in southwest Wyoming during the Upper Green River Ozone Study (UGWOS) • 13 ozone exceedance days (76 ppb or higher) occurred during February and March 2011 • 123 ppb on Mar 2, 2011 • 121 ppb on Mar 3, 2011 • 121 ppb on Mar 12, 2011

  17. UGWOS Monitoring Sites

  18. High Winter Ozone Days 2011 UGWOS

  19. Winter Ozone Conditions • Snow on ground (white) • Clear skies or little clouds • Slow to Stagnant winds • Strong shallow (~100 m) inversion

  20. 2011 Winter Ozone WRF Evaluation • Use UGWOS special study and routine NOAA ds3505 surface met obs in SWWY • Soccer plots for Feb and Mar and SWWY domain • Vertical temperature profiles • 3SAQS 2011 WRF run not configured for winter ozone conditions

  21. WRF Wind MPE 9 Sites UGRB

  22. WRF Wind MPE ds3505 sites UGRB

  23. Mar 1, 2011 1500 (Max O3 =121 ppb)

  24. Mar 2, 2011 1500 (Max O3 =123 ppb)

  25. Mar 10, 2011 1500 (Max O3 = 84 ppb)

  26. Mar 10, 2011 1500 (Max O3 = 84 ppb)

  27. Winter Ozone WRF Conclusions • Need more focused evaluation for high ozone days • Some promise with low bias for winds and temperature • Large error not unexpected given slow wind speed • Vertical temperature matched reasonable well • Worse near the surface • 3SAQS 2011 WRF 36/12/4 km can provide starting point for focused higher resolution WRF model of winter ozone episodes using winter ozone WRF configuration

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