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Evaluation of the Potential of Large Aftershocks of the M9 Tohoku, Earthquake

Evaluation of the Potential of Large Aftershocks of the M9 Tohoku, Earthquake. Analyze the strain rates from historical geodetic and recent GPS data to put constraints on the potential of large aftershocks (remaining moment deficit) in Tohoku. Major Outcomes

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Evaluation of the Potential of Large Aftershocks of the M9 Tohoku, Earthquake

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  1. Evaluation of the Potential of Large Aftershocks of the M9 Tohoku, Earthquake Analyze the strain rates from historical geodetic and recent GPS data to put constraints on the potential of large aftershocks (remaining moment deficit) in Tohoku. Major Outcomes 1) The strain rates, hence the degree of plate coupling, did not significantly change over 120 years in Tohoku. 2) The slip deficits continue to build up in the areas neighboring the Tohoku rupture area; the size of the aftershocks could be up to ~Mw 8.6. Japanese PI: Yo Fukushima, DPRI, Kyoto University Counterpart PI: Paul Segall, Stanford University Photographs/Graphs etc.

  2. Residual in Slip Deficit (Cumulative slip deficit in 300 years) – (Slip + afterslip of Tohoku EQ) (Known high potential area) Two patches of large slip deficit in the neighbor of Tohoku EQ patch: Needs further check for reliability “1968 Tokachi-oki patch” Mw 8.5 (m) “1938 Shioyazaki-oki patch” + “Ibaraki-oki patch” (+ “1677 Tsunami-EQ patch?”) Mw 8.6 Boso-oki Mw 8.5 Responsible for 1953 M7.4, 1909 M7.7? Interface PAC-PHS

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