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CAMx SIMULATIONS OF MIDDLE-EAST TRANSBOUNDARY TRANSPORT BY USE OF RAMS AND MM5 INPUT

CAMx SIMULATIONS OF MIDDLE-EAST TRANSBOUNDARY TRANSPORT BY USE OF RAMS AND MM5 INPUT. Erez Weinroth 1,2 , Shoukri Kasakseh 1,3 Robert Bornstein 1 ( pblmodel@hotmail.com ) 1 San Jose State Univ. (SJSU), San Jose, CA 2 Hebrew Univ. Jerusalem, Israel (HUJI)

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CAMx SIMULATIONS OF MIDDLE-EAST TRANSBOUNDARY TRANSPORT BY USE OF RAMS AND MM5 INPUT

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  1. CAMx SIMULATIONS OF MIDDLE-EAST TRANSBOUNDARY TRANSPORT BY USE OF RAMS AND MM5 INPUT Erez Weinroth1,2, Shoukri Kasakseh1,3 Robert Bornstein1(pblmodel@hotmail.com) 1San Jose State Univ. (SJSU), San Jose, CA 2Hebrew Univ. Jerusalem, Israel (HUJI) 3Applied Research Institute Jerusalem (ARIJ), Bethlehem, West Bank presented at the GMU Modeling Conference, July 2007

  2. Outline • Project background • Intro to Mid-East met • Methodology • Results: • Synoptic-scale patterns • Mesoscale factors (obs) • Mesoscale simulations • RAMS and MM5 • CAMx • Conclusions & future work

  3. Background • USAID-MERC project (2000-2006) • Scientists from Palestine, Israel, &USA • Objectives accomplished: • Installation of environmental monitoring stations in West Bank and Gaza • Preparation of environmental databases on SJSU web page • Field campaigns during periods of poor air quality • Application of numerical models for planning • RAMS & MM5 meso-met • CAMx photochemical air-quality

  4. Carmel and Galil Jordan Shomron and Judea Israel Topo-heights & O3 sites Meso-met sites

  5. IMS 700 hPa, July 29, 0000 UTC * • Black Sea dominated by 700 hPa Low-p system  • inland lobe of Azores H thus split (W & E segments) • Protrusionfrom W-segment penetrates inland to • Western Saudi Arabia Black Sea H Med H

  6. H L Black Sea Turkey 1002 * Med 1008 IMS SFC Obs, July 31, 0000 UTC • Sfc Persian-through thermal-Low protrusion (1002 hPa contour) continued to expand westward • Protrusion from high (1008 hPa contour) retreated

  7. Night obs of sfc flow: 3-AM LST (00 UTC) H • Flow Dir:weak down-slopeoff coastal-mountains at • Coastal plain: offshore(to W) from W-facing slopes • Haifa Pen.(square): offshore(to E ) from E-facing slopes • Inland sites: directedinland (to E) from E-facing slopes • Low-O3 • generally <40 ppb) • Haifa still at 51 ppb L L

  8. Day Obs: 1200 NOON LST L • Winds: • Reversed • Stronger: up 6 m s-1 • Coastal plain: Onshore/upwind, from SW • Inland sites: Channeling (from W) incorridor(box) fromTel-Aviv to Jerusalem area (at Modiin site). • Higher daytimeO3 • max at Mappil, 66 ppb • 2nd max at Modiin, 63 ppb H H L

  9. 900 Km 270 Km 180 Km 900 Km 370 Km 270 Km RAMSConfiguration • 3 Grid Spacings • 20 km over E-Med for background synoptic forcing • 5 km over Israel, West Bank, and Gaza for meso-scale sea/land & mt/valley flows • 1.25 km for Tel Aviv-Jerusalem transport-corridor • Domain GPs: 45 x 45, 74 x 54, and 146 x 218 for Domains 1-3 • 24 vertical levels • 1st full grid cell at 125 m • Topography: GTOPO30 • ECMWF for IC and BC • Model run at HUJI • Simulations start: 00 UTC on 1 August 97 & end 72-h later

  10. MM5 Configuration • Version 3.7 • 3 domains • 15, 5, 1.67 km Grid Spacings • 59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid Points • 32 σ-levels • up to 100 mb • first full σ-level at 19 m • Lambert-conformal map projection (suitable for mid lat regions) • Two-way nesting • 5-layer soil-model • Gayno-Seaman PBL • Simulations • Start: 00 UTC, 29 July • End: 00 UTC, 3 Aug • Single CPU , LINUX (SJSU-Lightning)

  11. L H * L H • ECMWF-pressures correctly captured movements of large- • scale surface pressure-systems • Thus ECMWF provided good SFC IC/BC for RAMS & MM5

  12. Obs (below); 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope (off-shore, except where inland-direct at inland sites) RAMS • RAMS 7 AM SFC WINDS (ABOVE) • Off coast: Southwesterly (no obs) • Coastal plain: Downslope/offshore from SSE • Inland: Inland directed • Southern: from NW vs. from W in obs

  13. Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope, off-shore (except where inland-direct at inland sites), reproduced from previous slide • MM5 7 AM sfc winds (above) • Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs) • Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE • (in obs & RAMS; can’t be in coarser ECMWF) • Inland sites: inland directed (obs & ECMWF) • Southern: obs&MM5 are westerly; RAMS was NW

  14. Obs, 1 PM, 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow RAMS • RAMS 1 PM sfc winds (above) • Off coast: Onshore from SW (no obs??) • Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs, but can’t be in coarser ECMWF-results) • Inland sites: inland directed (in obs, MM5, & ECMWF) • South (circle): NW in RAMS, as in obs

  15. Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow • MM5 1 PM sfc winds (above) • Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs) • Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs & RAMS) • Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & RAMS • South (circle): NW (in RAMS & Obs)

  16. Mid-east Obs vs. MM5: 2 m temp(Kasakech ’06 AMS) First 2 days show GC/Syn trend not in MM5, as MM5-runs had no analysisnudging Obs Run 1 Run 4: Reduced Seep-soil T July 29 August 1 August 2 obs MM5:Run 4 July 31 Aug 1 Aug2 Standard-MM5 summer night-time min-T, But lower input deep-soil temp  better 2-m T results  better winds  better O3

  17. Obs vs. MM5: V (m/s) Note: non-reproduced synoptic trend in max-speed Run 3 OBS July 31 August 1 August 2

  18. Emission Inventory: 1997-8 • 15Large Stationary (point) sources (58% fuel consumption) • 400Medium Stationary (point) sources (7%) • Small Stationary (area) sources (12%) • Solvents (area) sources • Biogenic Stationary (area) sources (isoprene and monoterpene) • Mobile (area) sources, both ground based and aerial (22%)

  19. O3 ppb 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 RAMS/CAMx (left) O3 vs. airborne Obs (right) at 300 m: > Secondary-max: over Jerusalem; in obs (but underestimated by 15%) from coastal N-S highway sources > Primary-max: found in Jordan (no obs) from Hadera power-plant Flight Path Jerusalem Irbid, Jordan . Hadera Power  Plant 1 Aug, 1500 LST

  20. Legend O3 ppb 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 > All emission sources (see below, left & previous slide) > All industry sources (see below center) > Main (tall-stack) industry sources > Medium and small (low-stack) industry > Without Industry (only Vehicles, Solvents & Vegetation) (below right) > Vehicles only > Without vehicles (only all-Industry, Solvents & Vegetation) > Without emissions (only IC and BC) 300 m CAMx ozone from 3 of the 8 Emission Input Scenarios (below) All emission sources All industry sources Without industry sources 1.8.97 15:00 1.8.97 15:00 1.8.97 15:00 1.8.97 15:00

  21. Ozone Peaks for all 8 Scenarios: 1 Aug ‘97

  22. SUMMARY (1 of 2) • Synoptic-obs during a summer sfc Persian-Trough period • 700 hPa L moved southward over area  Azores High retreated • Sfc-L moved to W reduced-subsidence from high  inversion-base raised • Persian sfc-L was N of (not over) area typical (but, not episode) sfc O3-levels • Meso-obs showed • Meso (daytime Mt/sea + nighttime valley/land) breezes • JerusalemO3-max: from inland-transport of coastal auto-emissions

  23. SUMMARY (cont.) Model-results showed • RAMS & MM5 reproduced surface-flows • Daytime sea breeze and upslope flows • Nighttime land breeze and downslope flows • CAMx/RAMS • Reproduced obs JerusalemO3-max (due to coastal-autos) • Showed even larger (previously-unknown) max over Jordan (due to Hadera power-plant emissions)

  24. CURRENT & FUTURE WORK • Improved MM5-simulations • FDDA analysis nudging to better capture synoptic trends • Move to urbanized (next talk): uMM5 & uWRF • Compare RAMS & MM5 • Inputs to CAMx • Verify sfc & PBL transport-patterns • New USAID/MERC obs & modeling projects with • Jordan (started June 2007) • Lebanon (pre-proposal invited for Dec 2007)

  25. Key References • Matveev, V., et al., 2002: Long-range trans-portation of air pollutants from Europe to Israel. Isr. J. Earth Sci., 51, 17-28. • Doron, E., and J. Neumann, 1977: Land and mountain breezes with special attention to Israel’s Mediterranean coastal plain. Israel Meteor. Res. Papers, 1, 109-122. • Dayan, U., and L. Koch, 1996: Ozone concentration profiles in the LA Basin – A possible similarity in the build-up mechanism of inland surface ozone in Israel. JAM, 35, 1085-90. • Ranmar, D., et al., 2002: Impact of coastal transportation emissions on inland air pollution over Israel: utilizing numerical simulations, airborne measurements, and synoptic analyses. JGR, 107. • Weinroth, E., 2004: RAMS/CAMx modeling. Ph.D. dissertation, HUJI, 127 pp.

  26. Thanks… Questions ?

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