Change Creates and Eliminates Marketing Opportunities

1. Change Creates and Eliminates Marketing Opportunities What Is The Fastest Growing City In The U.S.?

2. Cherokee Indians ... “All the time I go about in pity of myself a great wind is bearing me across the sky.” • What do you thinking this means?

3. The Megatrends John Naisbitt and Company

4. Megatrends 1982 1. Industrial --> Information Based Society 2. High Tech --> High Touch Response 3. National --> Global Economy 4. Short Term --> Long Term Orientation 5. Centralization --> Decentralization

5. Megatrends 1982 6. Institutional Help --> Self Help 7. Representative --> Participatory Government 8. Hierarchies --> Networking Organizations 9. North Moves --> South and to the Coasts 10. Not Either / Or, but --> Choice or is not longer a chocolate and vanilla world

6. Megatrends 2000 1. Booming Global Economy of the 1990s 2. Renaissance in the Arts 3. Emergence of Free-Market Socialism 4. Global Lifestyle - Cultural Nationalism 5. Privatization of the Welfare State

7. Megatrends 2000 6. Rise of the Pacific Rim 7. Decade of Women in Leadership 8. Age of Biology 9. Religious Revival of the New Millennium 10. Triumph of the Individual

8. 16 Trends In The Economy Faith Popcorn - BrainReserve

9. 1. Anchoring • The tendency to use ancient practices as anchors or support modern lifestyles • Examples • Aromatherapy • Meditation • Yoga • Eastern religions • Western medicine is responding by “including” so-called Alternative medicine

10. 1. Anchoring - Examples • 69% of Americans believe in angels, and 46% have their own guardian angel. • Two-thirds of Americans report mystical experiences. • 90% say religion is important; 72% pray every day. • 40% us believe in faith healing. • Christian bookstores reap $3 billion in annual sales. • The Internet has over 72,000 sites devoted to Christian themes. • People are looking beyond Western traditions to alternative spirituality and healing. • 3 million Americans practice yoga & martial arts. • Many of us are looking for more personal anchors, exploring family genealogy. • The Internet and software shelves are full of systems for tracking ancestry; Rootsweb.com gets 400,000 hits a day

11. 2. Being Alive • The desire to lead longer and more enjoyable lives • Examples • Vegetarianism • Low-tech medicine (herbs, naturals, etc.) • Meditation • Marketers respond with healthier products / services …or do they appear to be healthier

12. 2. Being Alive - Examples • The quickest illustration of this Trend is the incredible surge in organic products. Now organics are a $7.6 billion business, up 200% in the last 5 years. • Think about herbal additives: Ginseng, St. John’s Wort, Kava. Herbal additives in food or in the form of capsules, tinctures, extracts or teas are now routinely used by one third of American adults. • GNC is opening more than a store a day; they do $4.2 billion in annual sales. • Fitness club membership is up 64% over the last 7 years for those aged 39-54. • And we’re trying to improve mental health at the same time. Witness the "sweat shop fitness & wellness facility" in Albany, NY, where clients get therapy while working out. • People are gobbling up green tea – even as ice cream. • Alternativity is a big part of this Trend. Think acupuncture, magnets, meditation. • We are even seeing the rise of alternative pet care: the Holistic Veterinary Association counts 700 member vets.

13. 3. Cashing Out • The desire for a simpler, less hectic lifestyle • Examples • Executives leave corporate American to run a bed-and-breakfast in Vermont or run small businesses from home • Return to small towns and rural America • This trend is marked by the nostalgic return to small town values

14. 3. Cashing Out - Examples Back To Basics • Astonishing success of "Simple Abundance" by Sarah Ban Breathnach: Time Warner now has a deal with her to produce 4 books per year at Simple Abundance Press. • 51% of Americans prefer more free time, even if it means less income. • Over 4 million city-dwellers moved out of cities in the last 4 years. • People looking for ways out of the rat-race have formed support groups to help with "exit strategies."

15. 3. Cashing Out - Examples Leisure Time For The Briefcase Set • Prominent leaders are leaving to spend more time with their families: • Susan Molinari and Bill Paxon: both U.S. House Representatives resigned to devote time to family. • Patty Stonesifer: former head of Microsoft’s interactive division left that pressure-cooker job for a more temperate pace as president of the Gates Library Foundation • Sergio Zyman, marketing guru for Coke, left to spend more time hanging out at home. One way out is Entrepreneurship • Someone starts a home-based business every 11 seconds. • Oh, and those home-based businesses are raking in $401 billion in annual revenues!

16. 4. Clanning • The growing need to join up with / belong to groups to confront a more chaotic world. • Examples • HOG - Harley Owner’s Group • Mega Churches • Self help support groups • Markets respond with products, services to help consumer feel part of something

17. 4. Clanning - Examples • As joiners, we Americans want to share our opinions, beliefs, complaints – whatever it is we’re feeling. • The AIDS ribbon is a terrific example of Clanning at work in the social realm; there are actually more than 500,000 support groups for different health concerns. • "Superparents" may be the next Clan: with the booming market for fertility drugs, twin births are up 42% over the last 15 years, and for those really going for the gusto, births of triplets or more are up 272% during the same period. • The list is endless: teens are forming virgin clubs, tea-lovers are joining tea-clubs, women named Betty are bonding over their name, even Harley Davidson does a "ladies of Harley" group. • Small town solidarity is turning up in wallets: some municipalities are now issuing their own currencies to encourage local spending and rebuild communities without relying on going to Washington. • Andy Warhol once said, "I think it would be terrific if everybody was alike." Now THERE’s a Clan!

18. 5. Cocooning • The impulse to stay inside when the going outside gets too tough and scary. • Examples • TV watching and movie rental • Redecorating • Ordering from catalogs • Using answering machines and caller-id to filter the outside world

19. 5. Cocooning (continued) • Socialized cocoons gather inside for conversation • Wandering cocoons are people who hole up in their cars with take-out foods and cell phone • Question - are chat rooms a reflection of cocooning? The net as entertainment?

20. 5. Cocooning - Examples • Martha Stewart, B. Smith has turned "home-making voyeurism" into big business. • Home improvement is a $143 billion business. • Home Depot has 657 stores, with 1,300 new stores planned for 2001. • And what else are we doing at home? Shopping! • QVC counts 5 million couch shoppers; HSN sends out 62,000 packages per day. The Armored Cocoon Is Changing Our Neighborhoods And Homes: • Gated communities house 4 million Americans. • Private security is now a $104 billion market. • And when we’re tucked safely indoors, we want to enjoy ourselves: movie theaters are now installed in some 16.6 million homes.

21. 5. Cocooning - Examples Not To Mention Working At Home: • New surveys show that only 17% of workers want that corner office; a clear majority would prefer to work in a home office. • The number of U.S. at-home workers is up 100% in the last 5 years, for a total of 10.1 million. In 20 yrs, 1 in 7 workers will be a full-time telecommuter. • Len Riggio, President of Barnes & Noble, understands stores are Cocoons: the pick-up place of the 90's is a retail space designed like a comfortable living room. Barnes & Noble has revenues upwards of $2.5 billion, opening 70 outlets a year. • An old prayer brings this Trend home: "Bless these walls so firm and stout, keeping want and trouble out."

22. 6. Down-Aging • The tendency for older people to act and feel younger than their age. • Examples • More youthful looking clothes • Hair coloring / hair implants • Adult camps and adventure vacations • Question - Is having / adopting children past age 50 part of this trend?

23. 6. Down-Aging - Examples • "Star Wars" made millions the second time around with a grown-up fan base. • Think of all the primetime TV shows starring cartoon characters: "The Simpsons," "King of the Hill," "South Park," "Daria," "Dr. Katz," and newcomers "The PJ’s," "Futurama," and "The Family Guy." • S’mores and cotton candy are now a popular dessert in restaurants, and Manhattan even sports a downtown eatery called Peanut Butter & Co., serving sandwiches of nothing but. • The Down-Aging retail landscape is booming as well: Disney has 250 stores and Warner Brothers has 80 stores; 80% of their sales are to adults, for adults. • My favorite online auction, eBay, posts 1,941 hits for Pez dispensers. • The median age of a Harley customer has risen to 42; ten years ago it was 34. • Car makers are appealing to boomer tastes by bringing back old favorites like the Ford Thunderbird, Chevrolet’s Nomad station wagon from the ’50s, and of course the VW Bug.

24. 7. Egonomics • The wish to individualize oneself through possessions and experience. • Examples • Look alike dolls • Individually built computers • Custom clothing • Marketers respond by offering customized goods, services, and experiences.

25. 7. Egonomics - Examples • I saw the critical importance of this Trend when a consumer said to me, "I used to be a name. Then I became a number. Now I’m a bar-code." • Customization will be an enormous part of the future marketplace. Even now, it has turned up in some crazy corners: a company called My Twin Doll will take a photograph of your child and produce a custom doll that looks just like her! (They’re starting young…) • The growing market in body piercing, tattoos & branding is about a lot of things, not least of all individuation. • Check out this company that bakes cookies with a "you are what you eat" attitude. The Clever Cookie Company has recently introduced a cutstomized cookie imprinted with a color photograph in edible ink.

26. 7. Egonomics - Examples Even The Dead Are Requiring Custom Treatment: • Ashes can be launched into space; • Sportsmen’s ashes can be turned into buckshot and… • Viewlogy (rhymes with eulogy) allows the story-teller in all of us to be posthumously indulged: a sealed video tombstone on which mourners can watch the life-story as told by the deceased and family. Fashion Has Been Among The First Industries To Make Egonomics Part Of Its Best Practices • The Custom Foot takes your particular measurements, allows you to preview styles, fabric and leather types, and sends the data to its factory in Tuscany, and back comes a pair of custom shoes. • Custom jeans can now be had from Levi’s, and a wealth of other custom-tailored clothes are now available on the Web; just send in 11 key measurements! • And it's not just for the high-end; "Mass-Class" has arrived.

27. 8. Fantasy Adventure • The need to find emotional escapes to offset daily routines. • Examples • Eating exotic foods • Safari vacations • Race car driving school • Marketers create fantasy products and services, especially virtual reality.

28. 8. Fantasy Adventure - Examples Exotic Fantasy In The Food Realm • Biblical cuisine; fusion menus of all kinds; always some new ingredient you haven’t yet heard of. • Vampire wines from Transylvania bring a shiver to your dinner-table (labels are printed with dripping blood in case you somehow missed the point). • Using herbs found in archaeological digs, one fragrance master has recreated Cleopatra’s perfume. • Of course, the Web is any Fantasy Adventurer’s dream: we can self-create as often as we like in cyberspace, adopting any gender, image, or name. Anonymity enables fantasy.

29. 8. Fantasy Adventure - Examples • Thornton Wilder summed this one up nicely: "when you’re safe at home, you wish you were having an adventure. When you’re having an adventure, you wish you were safe at home." • So how can we travel without traveling? For the first time, film merchandising has extended to selling pieces of the set (real or reproduced) from films like "Titanic" and "LA Confidential." • Speaking of which, the success of "Titanic" spurred 15% growth in the cruise industry (and as I recall, the boat SANK in that movie!). • Ever wonder what’s going on with Luxor, Las Vegas? Apparently of the 56% of us who gamble, 97% prefer to do so in over-the-top settings. • Theme parks are booming, with annual revenues of $6 billion. • Even when we do travel, we are thirsty for adventure in our hotel rooms: One Australian hotel offers upscale tree-houses for $900 a night (and you won’t be roughing it, with TV, AC, and minibar access assured).

30. 9. Eveolution • The recognition that men and women act and think differently. • Examples • Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Vensus • Saturn Car Company targets women Marketers seek to develop strong relationships with women customers who make 82% of all retail purchases

31. 9. Eveolution - Examples • Let me answer once and for all the age-old stumper: What do women want? Relationships! • The numbers on women in business may surprise you: • Women-owned businesses employ more than the Fortune 500 combined: 18.5 million workers. • They do $2.3 trillion in annual sales. • Women own 8 million businesses in the U.S., or 1/3 of all U.S. firms. And by the way this figure has risen 78% since ‘87. • A woman opens a new business every 60 seconds. Women are leaving corporate America at twice the rate of men. • By the year 2005, 40% of all firms will be female-owned. • Four out of five Japanese small business owners are women.

32. 9. Eveolution - Examples • As for women’s consumer power, they control 80% of household spending. • Women purchase 75% of all over-the-counter drugs. • Last year women bought 50% of all PCs, and have reached parity in the on-line community. • Women influence 90% of all car purchases. • Women own 53% of all stocks. • New book will be on EVEOLUTION...stay tuned! Marketing students - Remember who make 82% of all retail purchases … women!

33. 10. Icon Topping • The idea that “if it’s big, it’s bad”. • Marketers are responding by finding ways to think, act, and look smaller. • Examples • Miller’s Plank Road Brewery beer looks like a micro brewery • “Army of One” - the concept of individual attention and performance

34. 10. Icon Topping - Examples • Skeptical consumers are ready to bring down the long-accepted monuments of business, government, celebrity and society. • Large companies no longer hold our trust. Corporate behemoths like AT&T, Amex, and IBM are scrambling to look small. • Linux may just be the slingshot that brings Microsoft down; we’ve lost faith in the good intentions of the giants. • Loyalty to a single employer has gone the way of the dinosaur; temp agencies are the single largest employment sector in the U.S. • Our distrust of doctors has produced an enormous market in alternative medicine: we spent $19 billion in that category last year. • Forget celebrity spokespeople: ads now spotlight the unfamous, the wannabes and the who-was-that’s – even a couple of Real People – to sell their wares. • A Yankelovich survey shows that customers trust friends above experts when it comes to product recommendations (65% trust friends, 27% trust experts, 8% trust celebrities).

35. 11. Manicpation • The emancipation of men from stereotypical roles. • Men are no longer required to be macho, distant, and strong. • This trend is reveal in ads featuring men as nurturing dads and concerned husbands. • Question - Why does the diet coke ad run counter to this trend?

36. 12. “99” Lives • The attempt to relieve time pressures by doing many things at once. • Examples of “multitasking” • Talking on a cell phone while surfing the net • Driving, eating,and talking on a cell phone • Writing this lecture while watching a video • Marketers creating can cash in by creating “all-in-one-service stops”

37. 12. “99” Lives - Examples • I tuned in to 99 Lives when someone at a BrainReserve TrendProbe said, "Today I don’t even have time to realize how busy I am." • I predict that by 2010, 90% of all consumer goods will be home-delivered. • Time is the new money: people would rather spend money than time. • 80% of Americans are looking for ways to simplify their lives. • 78% want to reduce stress. • Home meal replacement is now a $100 billion business.

38. 13. Pleasure Revenge • The proud and public pursuit of pleasure as a rebellion against self-control / deprivation. • People are fed-up with the health kick of the 1980’s. • Examples • Eating red meat, fats, sugars, etc. • Turning away from health-food alternatives • Question - Are people taking more risks?

39. 13. Pleasure Revenge - Examples • An old Spanish proverb captures the spirit of this Trend: "living well is the best revenge." • Tired of being told what’s good for them, rebellious consumers are indifferent to rules & regulations. They’re cutting loose & publicly savoring forbidden fruits. • Martinis, red meat, and cigars: these are the hallmarks of your Pleasure Revenge consumer. • Beef consumption has reached a new high: 64 lbs. per person per year. There were 5.2 billion hamburgers eaten last year. • Steakhouses have grown 47% (from 1993-1998), to be the fastest growing kind of restaurant. • Weight loss centers are down 46% over the past 5 years. Eating Well magazine folded in January (1/99). • One New York gym ran an ad saying: "Look at it this way. The more you exercise, the healthier your lungs, the more you can smoke."

40. 14. S.O.S (Save Our Society) • The desire to make society more socially responsible with respect to education, ethics, and the environment. • Examples • Green marketing • Customer “Bill of Rights” • Companies need to practice more socially responsible marketing.

41. 14. S.O.S - Examples • A bumper sticker sums this one up "There's no hope, but I may be wrong." • Concerned with the fate of the planet, consumers respond to marketers who exhibit a social conscience attuned to ethics, environment, and education. • Chef Alice Waters of Chez Panisse created an edible schoolyard, using an organic garden as a classroom. • Working Assets phone service uses major carriers (like Sprint), but applies 2 cents of every dollar in revenue to a chosen cause of the month. • Timberland gives every employee 40 hours per year of paid time for community service. • 182 major investing institutions make socially responsible investments, amounting to $639 billion in annual assets (almost 10 times the size of the Vanguard S&P Index 500 fund). • In fact, S.O.S. is becoming the corporate standard.

42. 15. Small Indulgences • A penchant to indulge in small scale splurges to obtain an occasional emotional lift. • Examples • Eating healthy for a week and then having Ben and Jerry’s New York Super Fudge Chunk • Brown bag lunch with a Starbucks latte • “Mon Cheri” as a self reward • Question - What do you do to indulge?

43. 15. Small Indulgences - Examples • Sunglasses have become "cars for the face." The average pair now costs $77. Sunglass Hut has 2,116 stores, with annual sales of $418 million. • The old Bic may not be good enough for the occasional letter we sit down to write; Mont Blanc now sells $350 million in fancy pens every year. • $7.99 for a tube of Rembrandt toothpaste? You betcha! • Premium-priced necessities are currently the largest growth area in packaged goods: • Gillette’s Mach 3 razor costs 35% more than the Sensor Excel, and they can’t keep them on the shelves. • Other successful new entrants: Hefty one-zip sliding lock food-storage bags and Huggies Supreme Care diapers.

44. 15. Small Indulgences - Examples • Henry James reminds us that "there are few hours in life more agreeable than the hour dedicated to the ceremony known as afternoon tea." But did he have any idea how far we’d go with this tea thing? • Zagat’s now has a tea category, to match the rise of afternoon tea in hotels/restaurants • Specialty and exotic teas are brewing all over America as we surf. • Whimsical tea pots, replicas of ancient tea pots. • Elegant dinners may have menus designed around tea, as at the Ritz Carlton. • And for the true fanatics out there, we spotted vanity license plates spelling words like "oolong."

45. 16. The Vigilant Consumer • Intolerance for shoddy products and poor service. • Vigilant consumers want companies to be more aware and responsive. • Examples • Consumer boycotts and class action suits • Consumers buying “green products” • My family has stopped eating red meat ...

46. 16. Vigilant Consumer - Examples • When I’m explaining this Trend to clients, I ask them to examine their own companies carefully: Every business contains the seeds of its own destruction. • Consumers seek real products, benefits, people, communication, and value. • When they are disappointed, consumers can be formidable enemies: at any given time, there are 150 boycotts in progress nationwide. • The poster-children for this Trend would have to be Nike and Kathie Lee Gifford: consumers care about what’s behind the brand, what it stands for and whose labor has built it. • United Airlines seems to have taken this Trend to heart. Its ‘97 annual report admitted to consumers and shareholders alike that it had a long way to go, and pledged to do better. They went so far as to print angry testimonials from disappointed customers.

47. 16. Vigilant Consumer - Examples • The tools for Vigilante Consumer action have exploded with the Web. For example, the FAA’s Website now provides detailed safety records of all commercial planes; travelers can read the specs of any plane they’ll be traveling on, and re-book accordingly. • Popular Culture reflects these themes as well: The Dilbert Principle was the #1-selling book for over 200 weeks. Its theme? A downsized engineer strikes back. • The private label phenomenon is another index of consumer discontent; it’s all about the rejection of brand names. Private label sales are up 38% over the past three years. • In fact, discount/off-price outlets are the fastest growing sector of retail. One-third of all groceries are now bought at warehouse clubs.

48. What New Trends Are Emerging?