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Future Trends

Future Trends. The Urban Age. 2007. 2050. 6.5. 9.0. 50%. 75%. 450. 600. Infrastructure. 1900. 1.7. People (Billion). % Living in Cities. 10%. Cities Greater than 1 Million. 16. Water Insecurity. Decline in Food Production. Heat Waves. Transition Phase - Uncertainty.

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Future Trends

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  1. Future Trends

  2. The Urban Age 2007 2050 6.5 9.0 50% 75% 450 600 Infrastructure 1900 1.7 People (Billion) % Living in Cities 10% Cities Greater than 1 Million 16

  3. Water Insecurity Decline in Food Production Heat Waves

  4. Transition Phase - Uncertainty Infrastructure Emissions Trading Scheme ClimateAdaptation Multiple Renewable Energy Options

  5. Challenges Rise in global middle class – materialists How can we: • Lead & influence other cities? • Make sustainability an aspiration?

  6. Local Trends

  7. CoM Population Growth Forecast Forecast 120,000 100,000 80,000 Population 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

  8. Aging Population Strong MigrationMulticulturalism Strong Demand for Housing

  9. City User Projections Infrastructure Forecast

  10. Transport Car (01-06) Bicycle (01-06) 20% 136% -5549 +3,056 Walked (01-06) Public Transport (01-06) 111% 8% +6,757 +13,193

  11. 60,000 50,000 40,000 Tonnes (‘000) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Geelong Hastings Portland Melbourne 2002-3 2030 (Base case forecast) Increased Imports Source: COAG 2007

  12. 24 Hour City

  13. Local Climate Change Impacts High rainfall (>20mm) results in a decrease in pedestrian activity of 10% High temperature (>35 degrees) results in a decrease of 10.9%

  14. Housing Affordability The Age February 2008

  15. Aging Infrastructure Infrastructure Westgate Bridge Completed in 1978 1884 First underground drain constructed in Carlton 1837 The Hoddle Grid 1905 Flinders Street Station Commenced 1889 Victoria Dock opened 1985 2000 City Square Opens Domain Tunnel is opened 1996 Development of the Docklands Melbourne's City Loop was completed

  16. Opportunities

  17. Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Nano-Technology Vertical Farming Biomimcry

  18. Robotics Communication Technology Education

  19. Maintaining Liveability In this uncertain Transition phase, how can we: • Keep the cost of living relatively low • Deal with more variable weather • Maintain recreation facilities & city vitality • Deal with increasing congestion • Maintain social cohesion, public safely & security • Adjust to an aging population • Improve education standards & reduce skills shortages • Improve financial flows • Guard against spread of disease pandemics/epidemics

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