Future Trends

1. Future Trends Projects Competition 2014 IS Briefing Daniel Siew siewwj@hci.edu.sg

2. Distinguished Scientists and Technologists once said… 1932 Albert Einstein “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable.”

3. Distinguished Scientists and Technologists once said… 1943 IBM “I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers.”

4. Distinguished Scientists and Technologists once said… 1949 Popular Mechanics, predicting the relentless march of technology “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”

5. Distinguished Scientists and Technologists once said… 1962 Dennis Gabor, British physicist and author of Inventing the Future "Transmission of documents via telephone wires is possible in principle, but the apparatus required is so expensive that it will never become a practical proposition."

6. On the other hand, these were some crazy ideas by Science Fiction Writers 1968 – iPad? Arthur C. Clarke, 2001: A Space Odyssey “He would plug in his foolscap-size newspad into the ship’s information circuit and scan the latest reports from Earth…the postage-stamp-size rectangle would expand until it neatly filled the screen and he could read it with comfort.”

7. On the other hand, these were some crazy ideas by Science Fiction Writers in their time. 1950 – Earphones? Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451 “And in her ears the little seashells, the thimble radios tamped tight, and an electronic ocean of sound, of music and talk and music and talk coming in, coming in on the shore of her unsleeping mind.”

8. On the other hand, these were some crazy ideas by Science Fiction Writers in their time. 1893 – Escalator? Robert Heinlin, The Roads Must Roll “They glided down an electric staircase, and debouched on the walkway which bordered the north-bound five-mile-an-hour strip. “Have you ever ridden a conveyor strip before?” Gaines inquired. “It’s quite simple. Just remember to face against the motion of the strip as you get on.”

9. Arthur Clarke’s Three Laws of Prediction • Law 1:When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; when he states that something is impossible, he is probably wrong. • Law 2: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible. • Law 3: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

10. That said… • Predictions about the future are always heavily researched on. • This involves research on current practices, an examination of current progress (e.g. economic progress, technological progress, cultural changes), and a bold but measured projection in the future based on trends. • Hence, Future Trends is about imagination PLUS research. • It is not limited to technological trends. It can be related to economic trends, geographical trends, sociological trends etc.

11. Working Principles of Cat 11: Future Trends While divergent thinking is highly encouraged, students must also be able to take on an evaluative function, hence a balance between originality and research is advocated. Focus on both process (documented research) + product (creatively-applied research). “creative activity is made possible by a critical assessment of the existing body of knowledge” – K.P. Mohanan, 1997. “ideational flow must also be critically censored” – G. J. W. Smith, 2005.

12. 6-Step Future Trends Process 1 Identify 10 Potential Problems 2 Identify Fundamental Problem 3 Identify 10 Potential Solutions 4 Select Best Solution 5 Design Action Plan 6 Evaluate Action Plan

13. 6-Step Future Trends Process 1 Identify Potential Problems 2 Identify Fundamental Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Select Best Solution 5 Design Action Plan 6 Evaluate Action Plan Projects Competition Prelims Requirements for Students Students have been presented with a scenario set in the future Complete Steps 1 – 2, with research, in online portfolio. Presentation: Present Steps 1 – 2: Present 5 most significant potential problems substantiated with current and future trend research. Present Fundamental Problem and rationale.

14. 6-Step Future Trends Process 1 Identify Potential Problems 2 Identify Fundamental Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Select Best Solution 5 Design Action Plan 6 Evaluate Action Plan Projects Competition Semis Requirements for Students Update Steps 3 – 4, with research, in online portfolio. Presentation: Present Steps 3 – 4: Present 5 most significant solutions (Step 3), each substantiated with research on current as well as future trends Explain decision-making process (Step 4), including list of criteria to evaluate solutions as well as ranking of potential solutions in a decision matrix.

15. 6-Step Future Trends Process 1 Identify Potential Problems 2 Identify Fundamental Problem 3 Identify Potential Solutions 4 Select Best Solution 5 Design Action Plan 6 Evaluate Action Plan Projects Competition Finals Requirements for Students Update Steps 5 – 6 and complete online portfolio Evaluate feasibility and effectiveness of action plan through research and/or expert validation. Presentation: Component 1: Creative skit that encapsulates the gist of action plan. Teams will also have to incorporate: • An impromptu tagline • A mystery object • Component 2: Formal presentation that evaluates Action Plan.

16. Inspired by: FPS: Future Problem Solving (an internationally-recognised problem-solving programme) “The aim of Future Problem Solving is essentially to develop critical, creative and futuristic thinking skills. It challenges students to apply their imagination and thinking skills to some of the significant issues facing both the world of today, and the future, equipping them with the skills and vision needed to anticipate, comprehend and solve problems associated with these issues, helping them to have a positive impact in the society of the future.” – FPSP Australia But there are some differences between FPS and Future Trends, as you will find out for yourselves in the next month, and during the course of your project.

17. Training for students Sec 1 students will undergo mandatory foundational training in FPS. (Feb 21, IS Period) This training should be applied to your Cat 11 project. Skills learnt may also apply to other categories. Prelims briefing will also be carried out nearer to Prelims. This will also include a Q&A session to clarify doubts in time for Prelims.

18. Seeking Mentorship Please only approach a mentor who has indicated an interest in Cat 11, i.e.: Mr Tan Chin Guan Mrs Ng Mui Eng MsQuah Lee Hwang Mrs Raj Priyahlatha Mr Edmund Teo MdmLoke Lai Fun Mr Lim Chuan Chia MrMervyn Cohen Ms Shanti Mrs Ang-Chua Ee Ling MsWun Wen-Li Mrs Rachel Chan Mrs Veronica Chua Advice Approach your prospective mentors personally. Warning Do not spam us!

19. Cat 11 – Future Trends Category Managers: Category Manager Asst. Category Manager Daniel SiewNg Mui Eng siewwj@hci.edu.sgngme@hci.edu.sg Thank You Futurists, watch out for updates on EMB. Bookmark the Future Trends wiki for constant reference (all crucial info is on there). Check out the scenario on the Future Trends wiki (fresh out of the oven).