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Future Trends Panel Discussion

MEsA. Future Trends Panel Discussion. Jairus Hihn. 22nd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling (2007). Software Systems Trends. We will see more and more systems that organically evolve integrating over networks with Systems of Systems characteristics

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Future Trends Panel Discussion

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  1. MEsA Future Trends Panel Discussion Jairus Hihn 22nd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling (2007)

  2. Software Systems Trends • We will see more and more systems that organically evolve integrating over networks with Systems of Systems characteristics • Plug and play systems that were never originally designed to work together • Ever greater use of • Line between systems and software will blur • ‘programming approaches’ that do not need programmers • graphics based • Auto code generation • Data mining and machine learning • Automation • Planning algorithms • More sophisticated fault protection • Agile like development processes • All of these severely challenge traditional costing approaches

  3. Costing Trends • Do we want to make ourselves better or improve the quality of costing across the industry • Dominant technique is bottom up estimates from engineers • Engineers use analogy and WAG • Deal better with COTS and SOS • More dynamic models • Calibration as part of estimation • More integrated tools • Cost, defects, risk • Parametric and analogy • Design and estimation • Analogy based estimation • Nearest Neighbour • Also needs language support because people sue words differently • Integration of expert judgment and data • Whatever we do we need to keep things as simple as possible

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