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Summary/Future

Summary/Future. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. POAMA-1.5. Re-anal + hind-casts. Evaluation + Applications. POAMA-2 (new initialisation + BAM+ACOM2+increased res+…). Evaluation and Applications. Development. Re-analysis and hind-casts.

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Summary/Future

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  1. Summary/Future 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 POAMA-1.5 Re-anal + hind-casts Evaluation + Applications POAMA-2 (new initialisation + BAM+ACOM2+increased res+…) Evaluation and Applications Development Re-analysis and hind-casts POAMA-3 (Basic ACCESS coupled model + basic coupled assimilation+…) Development (Coupled model, assimilation, ensemble gen, qc, etc) Re-analysis and hind-casts Eval + applications POAMA-4 (Improved ACCESS system) Development (Coupled model, assimilation, ensemble gen, etc) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  2. P15b P15a P1 Persistence P15b P15a P1 Persistence Indian Ocean SST Dipole Mode Index NINO 3(East Pacific) SSTA forecasts The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Produced by Guomin Wang

  3. Comparison with other centres Based on 5-member ensemble NINO-3 correlation IOD Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  4. NCC operational vs Climo POAMA vs Climatology POAMA vs NCC SON Rainfall 1982-2006 from POAMA-1.5 Brier Skill Score percentage improvement Forecast for first season • BUT • Skill disappears after first season • Too emphatic ? The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  5. 1997 SON POAMA lt 0 2002 SON POAMA lt 0 1997 SON Obs 2002 SON Obs • BUT • Skill disappears after first season The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  6. 1997 OBS 2002 POAMA at 3 months lead 1997 2002 1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  7. Compress Ensemble Nudge to central analysis EnsembleOI (Oke et al 2005) Covariances from ensemble spread (3D multi-variate-time evolving) PEODASPOAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System Perturbed forcing (Alves and Robert 2005) ASSIM ASSIM Observations The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  8. Temperature error - comparison with TAO and ECMWF Temperature Comparison with TAO Mooring at 140W The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  9. Surface currents in the Indian Ocean Correlation of surface U with OSCAR(www.oscar.noaa.gov) PEODAS ECMWF ECMWF Better due to Altimeter ? The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  10. POAMA-2 • System built and running hind-casts (ready mid 2009) • Improvements: • New Pseudo Ensemble Kalman Filter for ocean data assimilation (PEODAS) • Ensemble generation based on assimilation ensemble • Increased atmospheric resolution (T63) • Improved physics - reduced tropical SST bias • Built in SST bias correction scheme The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  11. Future: POAMA-3 • Aiming for 2011 • Improvements: • Based on UKMO UM atmospheric model and CABLE land surface • New ocean model (AusCOM/MOM4) with increased resolution • Greenhouse gases • Coupled assimilation (extension of existing PEODAS to coupled model, but assimilated atmospheric data will be reanalyses) • Assimilation of altimeter and SST (?) • Ocean and atmospheric perturbations (based on PEODAS) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

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