The 4 th joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and Consumer Opinion Surveys

1. Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries The 4th joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and Consumer Opinion Surveys Brussels 12-13 October 2009 Elena Tosetto (OECD), Gyorgy Gyomai (OECD)

2. Outline • Introduction • OECD Harmonised System of BTS: some quick instructions • Overview of the current status of the harmonisation of the surveys in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries by sector • Summary table of the current status of the harmonisation (rough indication) • Conclusions

3. Introduction • Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial • The EU Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs established standard framework for BTS during 1970s. • The OECD & the EU worked to adapt this system for use by other countries in Europe and Central Asia. • Asian Pacific countries, Latin America and Caribbean region: implementation of the harmonised BTS underway • Following from Nilsson (2003), overview enlarged to more sectors and more countries: • Non-EU OECD Countries: Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey and Unites States • OECD enhanced engaged economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa • OECD (Non-EU) accession countries: Chile and Israel • Sectors: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade, Services and Consumer Survey • Review based on information available and methodological information sent by the countries after an OECD request by e-mail (July-August 2009)

4. OECD Harmonised System of BTS: quick instructions • Complete and detailed description: OECD “Business Tendency Surveys: a Handbook” freely available on the OECD website at http://www.oecd.org/document/36/0,3343,en_2649_34353_14638564_1_1_1_1,00.html • Aim of BTS: monitor and forecast Short Term economic developments • Sectors most sensitive to cyclical fluctuations: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade and Services • To check inter-country comparability: frequency, coverage and format of the survey questions

5. BTS in industry in Non-EU OECD countries:Coverage andFormat of questions in individual countries corresponding to harmonised questions

6. BTS in industry in OECD enhanced engagement economies andOECD accession countries:Coverage andFormat of questions Frequency: Majority of countries surveyed conducts quarterly surveys Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) Format (step forward): The most harmonised industry survey Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland ( 10 over 11 harmonised questions) OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: Brazil, Russia, South Africa (9 or 8 over 11)

7. BTS in Construction and Retail Trade inNon-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format

8. BTS in Services inNon-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format Frequency: Majority quarterly surveys (monthly: Mexico, Chile, Switzerland (Retail Trade), and the USA) Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) Format (step forward): The most harmonised surveys: Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland (Construction and Services: 7 over 10 and 5 over 9) and New Zealand (Retail: 7 over 10) OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa (Construction & Retail)

9. Consumer surveys in Non-EU OECD countries:Coverage and Format of questions

10. Consumer surveys in OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries:Coverage andFormat of questions Frequency: Majority monthly (quarterly: New Zealand, Switzerland, Turkey and South Africa) Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) Format (step forward): Difference mostly on the horizon

11. Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CSin the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries :Introduction • Overview based on coverage & format • Rough indication, no mechanical role should be applied (different importance of questions not considered) • BTS: scale 1 to 5 • 1 = low harmonisation: num. harmonised questions (h) in format are less than ⅓ of the total h < ⅓; • 2 = weak harmonisation: ⅓ ≤ h ≤ ½; • 3 = can be improved: ½ < h ≤ ⅔; • 4 = good harmonisation: ⅔ < h < 1; • 5 = perfect harmonisation. • CS: UM’s coverage as benchmark (good coverage)

12. Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CSin the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries :Summary tables

13. Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CSin the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries :Comments • Manufacturing/Industry survey: more largely conducted, most harmonised (in gen. the first BTS) • Other surveys: increasing importance • Coverage: necessary condition for international comparisons • Harmonisation of the format: step forward (better and easier comparisons) • Among Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland best combination harmonisation and coverage • Among OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa and Chile best situations • No English translation (at the time of the review): Indonesia (BTS), China (BTS & CS) • No questionnaires: Retail Trade & Services for Brazil • No information from India and South Korea

14. Conclusions • Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial • Adoption harmonised BTS and CS = further progress • Actual analysis = Mixed picture (compare to Nilsson, 2003): • Improvements: Mexico, Brazil, South Africa • Step back: Canada, India • Accession countries: Chile (good level)

15. Thank you